Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Will be fun to watch Reilly in a Wild Sweater. Heard it on NHL network during draft. One commentator claimed Wild may have best D corp in NHL now. They need a center now.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Reilly will face a wall of D competition with the Wild. Their starting D are Spurgeon, Suter, Scandella, Brodin, and Dumba, leaving Reilly, Olofsson and Folin competing for the remaining 6th spot. Based upon what I saw from him against more quality competition in the World Championships, Reilly may struggle transitioning to the NHL until he refines his skills as a defender.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Reilly will face a wall of D competition with the Wild. Their starting D are Spurgeon, Suter, Scandella, Brodin, and Dumba, leaving Reilly, Olofsson and Folin competing for the remaining 6th spot. Based upon what I saw from him against more quality competition in the World Championships, Reilly may struggle transitioning to the NHL until he refines his skills as a defender.

No doubt, if nothing changes, he will likely be jumping back and forth between leagues as he adjusts to the speed and size of the NHL. However, over those two you mention, I think he has the edge offensively, which helps him in a league that values a D who can contribute at both ends. I think once his D improves and he puts on a few more pounds, i could see him leading a PP unit. Maybe they will eventually take Suter off. There wouldn't have been so many teams chasing him if they thought he wasn't close to being ready and has tons of potential. I thought he might chose a team like Chicago where he probably would start most of the year given they really have 4 D. The Wild is stacked at the position, but he obviously has confidence in himself.

And, with this much talent on D and being least strong at center, I don't know if those top 5 D will all be around. Gotta give up something to get something.

And did I miss something? Is Leopold gone? If not, he would be in the mix too. And has Ballard officially called it quits (not that I expect him to return)?

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

No doubt, if nothing changes, he will likely be jumping back and forth between leagues as he adjusts to the speed and size of the NHL. However, over those two you mention, I think he has the edge offensively, which helps him in a league that values a D who can contribute at both ends. I think once his D improves and he puts on a few more pounds, i could see him leading a PP unit. Maybe they will eventually take Suter off. There wouldn't have been so many teams chasing him if they thought he wasn't close to being ready and has tons of potential. I thought he might chose a team like Chicago where he probably would start most of the year given they really have 4 D. The Wild is stacked at the position, but he obviously has confidence in himself.

And, with this much talent on D and being least strong at center, I don't know if those top 5 D will all be around. Gotta give up something to get something.

And did I miss something? Is Leopold gone? If not, he would be in the mix too. And has Ballard officially called it quits (not that I expect him to return)?

I understand the Blackhawks could use an offensive D asap, so his choice is most likely not based solely upon immediate opportunity. I suspect his desire to remain based in Minnesota was a factor.

Jun 18: Jordan Leopold wants to re-sign with Minnesota, but he may have to wait. The Wild apparently told him that they would get back to him in a few weeks, as the club has other free agents and cap issues to attend to before getting around to him. However, there is interest on Minnesota's side in bringing Leopold back.

May 12: Keith Ballard is still dealing with concussion symptoms and he isn't sure if he'll eventually play hockey again. Ballard has suffered five concussions in five years and hasn't played since Dec. 9. "I'd love to play, but I've got to feel better first," said Ballard. "I don't want to close the door and say, 'Oh, I'm done,' but I'm going to factor everything in and give it some time and see if I can get to a point where I can get on the ice and feel OK." Ballard is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and teams will factor in his injury history when considering him. If Ballard wants to continue his NHL career, he might end up having to sign a two-way contract.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

And did I miss something? Is Leopold gone? If not, he would be in the mix too. And has Ballard officially called it quits (not that I expect him to return)?

I see Leopold was in town with Wild, so either he is still with them or just likes a free trip up north.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Most probably know, but.....

Gates and Novak drafted in 3rd round, Zuhlsdorf in 5th and Sadek in 7th. Doesn't seem like strong year for MN players. What is next year's class expected to be like? (Missed player, Boeser, at 23rd overall).

(Waiting for requisite "draft doesn't mean anything for college" response and prepared with my "It is not all that matters but first rounders will typically help any team in NCAA, and it is some indication of perceived skill and potential" counter response. I know the history of older teams of few drafted players winning some NC's, but that is not the model MN is operating under either. Not sounding any alarm either, just like to see a couple mega-talents coming in from time to time. And furthermore, it is just something more to talk about in the long off-season......)

[D2D]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

I understand the Blackhawks could use an offensive D asap, so his choice is most likely not based solely upon immediate opportunity. I suspect his desire to remain based in Minnesota was a factor.

Wondering too if his parents (esp. dad) might have influenced his decision somewhat. Mike's younger sister Caitlin is transferring from Penn State to the Gophers which will give them a chance to see her play all home games here too. And of course Connor and Ryan are here too.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Doesn't seem like strong year for MN players. What is next year's class expected to be like? (Missed player, Boeser, at 23rd overall).

Bellows will go really high.
Lindgren is set for the first round, and hopefully doesn't fall like Novak, Fasching, Ambroz, etc.
Tufte and Anderson (UMD) could be up there.
Wait, Rossini, Mattson and Kierstad (UND), and Graham (UMD) should be in the discussion, but probably mid rounds or lower.

Overall, not that great but hopefully a little better. Bellows is the big one.

[goldy_331]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Wondering too if his parents (esp. dad) might have influenced his decision somewhat. Mike's younger sister Caitlin is transferring from Penn State to the Gophers which will give them a chance to see her play all home games here too. And of course Connor and Ryan are here too.

And it's a short drive to Des Moines (shorter than to Chicago or Rockford).

[Hammy]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Lindgren is set for the first round, and hopefully doesn't fall like Novak, Fasching, Ambroz, etc..

Why does "hopefully" even apply? Hell... from a college perspective, Lindgren might end up more valuable to the Gophers if he was a 2nd/3rd round guy because he probably wouldn't get the pressure to leave after a year or two.

The reality is none of it matters in college. As I pointed out on GPL, Haula was a 7th rounder and Schmidt was undrafted. Was anybody going to complain about how they turned out? How about Kloos? Reilly was a 4th rounder. He sure sucked, right?

On the flip side, Michigan always has a lot of drafted guys and what the hell have they done lately other than get Red's blood pressure up when they bolt after a year or two? UND hasn't won a title in how many years despite having numerous 1st rounders in that time.

Anybody that focuses on the draft in developing an opinion on a guy's college value is more caught up in hype than anything.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

I understand it's mostly a pride thing. I just think if someone is in the discussion to go in the first round for years and then falls off, it means something has happened with his development. There are first rounders that are brutal in college like White and Fischer and guys like Connolly that are beasts. What I would like to see is the average number of years they stay and the impact each year they attend for first rounders vs. 2nd rounders vs. 3rd, etc. before I say first rounders don't have a bigger impact.

[Hammy]

I understand it's mostly a pride thing. I just think if someone is in the discussion to go in the first round for years and then falls off, it means something has happened with his development.

Because why? What the NHL judges for value is different than college. Not to mention the reality that the NHL has generally undervalued players that aren't big in stature whereas those are some of the most valuable guys in college.

What I would like to see is the average number of years they stay and the impact each year they attend for first rounders vs. 2nd rounders vs. 3rd, etc. before I say first rounders don't have a bigger impact.

And what's "bigger impact" considered? Because the last I checked, we are trying to win as a team... not worry about individual accolades, etc.

IMO, fans that dwell a lot on the draft stuff to judge college value have it completely backwards in the end. Not saying I'm not happy for guys that get drafted high but the reality is it doesn't guarantee anything from a team perspective. Which is ultimately what should matter for a college fan. Team

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

I think a key point is you have to look at the competitive environment that NHL scouts, coaches and owners are using as a basis for player assessments. Novak's, Gates', and Zuhlsdorf's recent scouting data is based primary upon their USHL performance; Sadek's at Lakeville North HS in a Mpls. south suburban high school conference. NHL teams pump out reams of inferential statistics to analyze player performance and predictability using regression and logistic analysis. However, these procedures are based upon sampling data that is not externally valid in the D1 college hockey environment.

As we witness season after season, player performance between the USHL/HS and D1 college hockey is NOT highly correlated, and as I determined last season, at some point they may be NEGATIVELY correlated (i.e. Cammarata). Statistically, most drafted players regress, lower drafted and undrafted players sometimes exceed expectations, but only a few truly live up to the hype of being a high NHL draft pick (i.e. Vanek, Kessel). The NHL draft is not a significant predictor of success at the D1 level.

[Bonin21]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Success being points? Total points in a career? Average points per year?

What is the most significant predictor? Or one that is known to be a better predictor?

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Success being points? Total points in a career? Average points per year?

What is the most significant predictor? Or one that is known to be a better predictor?

Good questions. I've yet to see a quantitative research study that defines and measures the construct "success" in D1 based upon a player's NHL draft selection. I apologize as this is a bit technical for USCHO, but if I was to conduct a study like this I'd use a multivariate multiple regression model and define the construct validity of "success" based upon mean scores of D1 career goals, PP goals and total points as independent variables. The NHL draft rounds are multi-level categorical variables and would need to be represented as dichotomous dummy coded variables to compare multiple dependent variables based upon players draft rounds. Then we could determine "IF" a statistically significant measure of predictability exists and which draft round is projected to perform the best.

The problem with regression analysis using sports performance data are the caveats involved in satisfying model assumptions: 1) the predictors have to be linearly independent, which some variables are clearly not and can sometimes be expressed as a linear combination of for example, team composition, line composition, conference/non-conf. play, etc., 2) the error variance has to be consistent across variables, and 3) it's important to define and control for covariates (injuries, playing time, etc.). If any of these are violated, the regression procedure is still fairly robust, but will sometimes yield unreliable results in terms of causality. The sample population would have to be quite large for a normal distribution and a suggested effect size of .80 to increase the internal and conclusion validity of the study. This could be a research study for someone's doctoral dissertation, it's got some interesting complexity to it. I would be interested in tackling it if I had more time.