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MavHockey14
03-25-2015, 07:25 PM
It isn't support, it is the cost of the bus. Way out of line! I can get a hotel, gas and tickets for half the expense.

Exactly what I did. My hotel for two nights instead of one was $70.50 per person in our group.

Iwearpurple
03-25-2015, 07:37 PM
You're right, RIT had four whole chances to play a top 20 (PWR) team this season, what was I thinking? :D

I calculated where RIT would have been had they lost only 4 conference games (same as Minnesota State). I changed there last 5 conference losses to wins. Then I assumed they won non conference games against Minnesota (easily could have happened, took UMTC to overtime) and assumed that they won against Yale.

All other games with all other teams were assumed to have the same results.

RIT would have finished a respectable 17th in the Pairwise.

Don't tell me the schedule works against the AHC.

dpm105
03-25-2015, 07:51 PM
I calculated where RIT would have been had they lost only 4 conference games (same as Minnesota State). I changed there last 5 conference losses to wins. Then I assumed they won non conference games against Minnesota (easily could have happened, took UMTC to overtime) and assumed that they won against Yale.

All other games with all other teams were assumed to have the same results.

RIT would have finished a respectable 17th in the Pairwise.

Don't tell me the schedule works against the AHC.

Wait a second? Are you telling me that in order to finish out of the tournament, "all" RIT would have to do is go 26-7-5, beat two of the three teams they played the entire year to make the NCAA tournament, and win or tie every league game they play from November 22nd through the end of the year? You've converted me. I'm a believer in the PWR!

blazer777
03-25-2015, 08:04 PM
With RIT already making a frozen four its kind of selfish of them to try and stop our first attempt. New York hospitality at its finest..... :D

Well yeah, but a team from Hockey East would do the same and then steal your girlfriend too!

With a loss to the Tigers, you keep hold of your girlfriend! :D

blazer777
03-25-2015, 08:08 PM
I'm not a math guy so maybe you nerds at RIT can help me out. I'm sympathetic to your argument that there's a bootstrapping effect in the Pairwise that keeps AHA teams down (and this year appears to have elevated a couple NCHC teams), but how would you fix it? Dumb it down for me, if you could

I was told there wouldn't be any math on this thread to help the Harvard fans out!

'Nerds', really?

Crimson on the Glass
03-25-2015, 08:12 PM
Wait a second? Are you telling me that in order to finish out of the tournament, "all" RIT would have to do is go 26-7-5, beat two of the three teams they played the entire year to make the NCAA tournament, and win or tie every league game they play from November 22nd through the end of the year? You've converted me. I'm a believer in the PWR!
Well, would you not expect that kind of record from most of the top 15 PWR teams if they had played your schedule, with 28 games against Atlantic Hockey opponents? I would.

I'm certainly glad we have RIT in the tournament and in our bracket in particular. It will be something to see if you can get past Minnesota State, of course, but I do wish you luck.

Iwearpurple
03-25-2015, 08:13 PM
Agreed, but I do want to point out that Pairwise is really a flawed statistic when evaluating AHC teams. Too few OOC games, too many games against conference opponents with a terrible pairwise. Even the best teams will lose some games in conference throughout the season.

You are the one who is saying too few OOC games hurts you. You do need to win OOC games. I used for my example 2 games that RIT could have won. We get the same number of OOC games (actually 2 more because we travel to Alaska), and you have admitted that your conference opponents have a terrible pairwise.

Remember, our conference was the leftovers that the Nacho league didn't want, so there was no guarantee that our conference would have the strength that it does. Many people were saying that the WCHA would not survive.

And did you forget that RIT won the conference tournament. They are in whether their pairwise ranking is 1st, 17th, or 50th. That is the way that every single team can make the tournament. Has nothing to do with Pairwise.

blazer777
03-25-2015, 08:19 PM
It was a serious suggestion. Harvard's 4 (maybe 5) largely OOC wins against ranked teams in the Nov - early Dec run was what took them from way way down in the rankings to #1 PWR. Not a lot of games, they just happened to win them. The ECAC's overall OOC performance was not great this year either, as I understand it.

I believe the AHC's OOC record this year was dismal. The only team from AHC hanging around the top 20 was RMU but they faltered in the end and fell out. They ran the table in the AHC regular season but lost in the first round of the Tourney (At BCA, not the round leading up to it). IF memory serves me, Niagara racked up wins against AHC teams and had some decent OOC wins to stay in the top 16 but I'm not sure they survived to play in the tourney after losing in the AHC play-offs.

To be honest, PWR just tells us where a teams been and not necessarily how they are going to do in a 1 game series that we are about to witness in two more days. Some high ranking PWR teams will go home this weekend and some will make it to the FF. The same could be said about the auto-bid/lower ranked teams.

What you have to focus on is who is playing really well right now, who's going to be a bit lucky and who get's some call made their way. There's so many things in play here and while you can analyze the hell out of the seasons wins\losses and stats..... but if one thing doesn't go your way in that 60 minutes, you may be looking at the end of your hockey season and the start of golf season!

dpm105
03-25-2015, 08:31 PM
Well, would you not expect that kind of record from most of the top 15 PWR teams if they had played your schedule, with 28 games against Atlantic Hockey opponents? I would.

This is EXACTLY my point. Yes, I would expect a top 15 team to be able to do that with our schedule. The problem is, if they do that, they aren't a top 15 team.

LTsatch
03-25-2015, 08:40 PM
When is the last time an AHA team actually made the tourney with a legit top 16 pairwise ranking?

purpleinnebraska
03-25-2015, 08:46 PM
When is the last time an AHA team actually made the tourney with a legit top 16 pairwise ranking?

Niagara, 2 years ago

dpm105
03-25-2015, 08:54 PM
You are the one who is saying too few OOC games hurts you. You do need to win OOC games. I used for my example 2 games that RIT could have won. We get the same number of OOC games (actually 2 more because we travel to Alaska), and you have admitted that your conference opponents have a terrible pairwise.

OOC wins are not as vital for you to have a decent pairwise, they are the only chance an AHC team has to make a dent in the ranking.


And did you forget that RIT won the conference tournament. They are in whether their pairwise ranking is 1st, 17th, or 50th. That is the way that every single team can make the tournament. Has nothing to do with Pairwise.

You are correct, although I'm not sure I ever refuted that fact.

Look, Minnesota State should absolutely be the heavy favorite in almost every way possible, they have earned the top seed and should make a good run. If you guys want to get all bent out of shape should RIT find a way to win because they lost to the "38th" team in the country be my guest. All I was trying to illustrate is that the gap between 1 and 38 might be a bit misleading.

Crimson on the Glass
03-25-2015, 09:05 PM
All I was trying to illustrate is that the gap between 1 and 38 might be a bit misleading.
OK I give up.

Beat the #1 seed, though, and the credit will go entirely to RIT, with no excuses necessary for the PWR system.

MavsFan19
03-25-2015, 09:34 PM
According to that hopeless shill Dave Starman, if you are not in the nacho you are losing. sigh. Is objectivity too much to ask for?
Though in his defense he said uno would only win if Massa played, which of course he is.

Yea the selection show coverage was awful. Starman really does believe it's NCHC and maybe BU... Everyone else is not worth mentioning.

Red Cows
03-25-2015, 09:35 PM
According to that hopeless shill Dave Starman, if you are not in the nacho you are losing. sigh. Is objectivity too much to ask for?
Though in his defense he said uno would only win if Massa played, which of course he is.

Better still is that it appears UNO captain Dominic Zombo may as well:

http://www.ketv.com/sports/ketv-sports-at-10/31998090

.........but, they are going to limit him to 3 shifts per period and no special teams......if he does play.

Glad Massa is O.K. to go, too. Without him we'd be one and done, I agree with Starman. He is a large part of why we are even in the tourney in the first place.

Since we have not been quite the same without him, particularly on offense, I will be happy to see him on the ice. His absence messed up our lines.

dpm105
03-25-2015, 09:40 PM
OK I give up.

Same, there is some great hockey to look forward to this weekend, time for me to focus on that.

In other news, ND still trying to pump the tires on this weekend. http://pacmail.em.marketinghq.net/functions/message_view.html?mid=868351&mlid=510&siteid=2008000154&uid=041e826ee6&hq_e=el&hq_m=868351&hq_l=1&hq_v=041e826ee6

I'm guessing similar notes on the other teams are to follow.

Red Cows
03-25-2015, 09:41 PM
I believe the AHC's OOC record this year was dismal.

AHA out of conference was 12-51-4

WCHA out of conference was 30-29-9

ECAC out of conference was 46-50-9


NCHC out of conference was 53-25-4 (UNO was 6-2-2)

Stauber1
03-25-2015, 09:42 PM
If you don't acknowledge that the PWR's reliance on RPI creates a bias against individual teams within AH, then I would suggest you are either being disingenuous or don't fully understand how the rankings are formulated.
It's the same reasoning used when it is suggested that not all the NCHC teams may be as good as their PWR indicates, and fans of the NCHC just stick bananas in their ears while humming My Country Tis Of Thee.
When it is suggested that not all the teams in AH are as bad as their PWR indicates, fans of the WCHA stick bananas in their ears while either humming the Copper Country Anthem or ringing their cowbells.

That being said, RIT went 1-5 in non-conference play this year, so it is reasonable to assert that they helped to exacerbate the AH problem rather than falling victim to it.
I don't care what conference you are in, if you go 1-5 OOC your PWR is going to take a serious hit and your conference-mates are going to be cursing you.

And Harvard fans are ugly.


How's THAT for offending all corners! :p

Red Cows
03-25-2015, 10:04 PM
Im a bit surprised that so many are overlooking UNO.

I am, too, but only in the context of how everyone seems to have forgotten that our Hobey Baker candidate senior goalie is going to be back in goal this weekend and our senior captain is also, apparently, going to play, too.

The two of them have combined to miss 18 games since the beginning of the year.

With as many underclassmen as UNO has (17), coupled with the loss of these two players, in particular, for as much of the 2nd half as they have, I thought our guys held their collective heads above the water fairly well given that Zombo and Massa's disappearance(s) coincided with the meat of the conference schedule getting under way. A reminder, we are an NCHC team, in case anyone forgot. We weren't exactly playing chopped liver since January 1st or so. UNO has played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation this season.

Leading up to when those guys started missing games, UNO was #2 in Pairwise and led the NCHC. We didn't exactly suck. We went 6-5-3 against the 7 teams ahead of us in the final Pairwise this season.

We might lay an egg come Saturday but at least it looks like we might have our full compliment of guys on the ice again, finally.

7outof10
03-25-2015, 10:07 PM
It isn't support, it is the cost of the bus. Way out of line! I can get a hotel, gas and tickets for half the expense.

That was way to much for what you got