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  • Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

    For over a decade, we've used this thread to keep track of the math and stay away from the woofing and other pointless cr@p.

    It's time to kick it off again for this season.

    With the switch to 12 teams, Hockey East enters a new configuration that appears to be stable for the foreseeable future. Where we recently used to have 27 league games per season, that also meant a .500 record was 27 points. The league winner was sometimes in the low-mid 30s and sometimes over 40. With last year's switch to 11 teams and only 20 league games per team, we saw how quickly the season started sorting itself out - and how much each league game mattered.

    With the total now at 22 league games per team, per season, there are no rubber games in a series. There is no "lose the singleton, but take the series with a home-and-home sweep" save to an early loss. There are four points in each pair and a loss means the best you can do is split later. Of course, the reverse is true, winning the first of the pair means at worst a split.

    Coming into this weekend, we now have four weekends left. For those with seven or eight games left on their docket, that leaves about a third of the season to go.

    In the posts coming up shortly, we can take a look at how we set the table for this weekend and what's at stake in the near future.

    For now, with this short post, at least we have a stake in the ground to start the conversation.
    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
    cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
    Scarlet - What he said.
    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

  • #2
    ECAC History

    Thanks Todd. Here is the history of the ECAC since the HE/ECAC split in 1984 (excluding 1999-2000 when Vermont cancelled the second half of their season) for how many points was required to finish in the top 4 and in the top 8.

    Code:
    	Top 4	Top 8
    1984-85	27	16
    1985-86	28	19
    1986-87	27	17
    1987-88	28	18
    1988-89	27	16
    1989-90	27	17
    1990-91	29	21
    1991-92	25	20
    1992-93	28	19
    1993-94	27	18
    1994-95	25	21
    1995-96	31	15
    1996-97	26	16
    1997-98	24	19
    1998-99	27	17
    1999-00		
    2000-01	25	19
    2001-02	24	21
    2002-03	25	18
    2003-04	28	19
    2004-05	29	17
    2005-06	26	18
    2006-07	25	18
    2007-08	26	21
    2008-09	25	21
    2009-10	24	18
    2010-11	25	19
    2011-12	24	20
    2012-13	24	20
    2013-14	25	18
    Avg.	26.24	18.48
    Sean
    Women's Hockey East Champions 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2010
    Men's NCAA Champions 2009, 1995, 1978, 1972, 1971

    BU Hockey Games
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    Comment


    • #3
      Re: ECAC History

      Schedule and format:


      2015 Hockey East Men's Tournament

      Friday - Sunday, March 6-8: Best-of-Three Opening Round Play on Campus
      (#5 hosts #12, #6 hosts #11, #7 hosts #10, #8 hosts #9)

      Friday - Sunday, March 13-15: Best-of-Three Quarterfinal Round Play on Campus
      (Schools #1 - #4 host four opening round winners,
      highest vs. lowest, etc.)

      Friday, March 20 at TD Garden: Semifinal Games

      Saturday, March 21 at TD Garden: Championship Final

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

        Coming in to the weekend...

        BU 24 - 38 [1-10]
        BC 20 - 32 [1-11]
        UML 20 - 32 [1-11]
        PC 17 - 31 [1-12]

        UVM 15 - 31 [1-12]
        ND 15 - 31 [1-12]
        NU 14 - 28 [1-12]
        CT 14 - 28 [1-12]

        MC 12 - 28 [1-12]
        ME 11 - 27 [1-12]
        UNH 9 - 25 [1-12]
        UMA 7 - 19 [4-12]

        Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
        BU - @UML, (BP v NU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2, NU, @NU
        BC - MC, (BP v HU), UVMx2, UML, @NDx2
        UML - BU, @UMA, (@UMA NC), UMA, @BC, UVMx2
        PC - CT, @NDx2, UMA, @UMA, MEx2
        UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2, @UMLx2
        ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2, BCx2
        NU - @UMA, (BP v BU), CT, @CT, @MEx2, @BU, BU
        CT - @PC, MC, @NU, NU, UNH, @UNH, UMA
        MC - BC, @CT, MEx2, @UVMx2, @UNHx2
        ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2, @PCx2
        UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, @CT, CT, MCx2
        UMA - NU, UML, (UML NC), @UML, @PC, PC, @CT


        To date, this season has had some surprises, some stability, and some roller coasters.

        At the end of the first semester, there had been three teams that had consistently been around the top of the standings, UML, BU, and UVM. Also, none of the three teams had played each other in the first half, so there looked to be six key games for seeding near the top of the standings, barring a three-way collapse.

        For three straight games in January, BU played first UML at Agganis and then UVM at the Gut for two. The Terriers came away with three wins, two of them in OT. The fourth (and BU's last) of these games is at Tsongas this weekend. The last two games among these three teams have UVM at Tsongas for a pair on the final weekend.

        Aside from the BU games, UML and UVM have stumbled a bit of late, but are still in the mix for the byes - although the Catamounts stumbled a little harder, and so will need to straighten things out quicker than the River Hawks.

        Among the surprises so far, certainly BU being in that conversation among top teams was unexpected at the beginning of the season, given their middle-of-the-pack estimate.

        Also unexpected, but in the other direction, were the rough starts from NU, BC, and UNH. BC's four-game skid amidst a 3-of-9 November left the Eagles a hole to dig out of. Since then, the Eagles have righted the ship to go on a run that puts them among the league leaders going into the final month of league play.

        Even deeper into the ground, Northeastern made themselves a crater to climb out of. The Huskies lost their exhibition game and then went 0-8-1. A 3-2 stretch gave them a 3-10-1 mark in early December. Since then, they have brought a run of 8-1-3 into this weekend. The most notable ding in that run was a 1-of-4 point H&H with the similarly streaking BC. Of course, the Huskies got their revenge by taking the non-league Beanpot semi against the Eagles last Monday.

        UNH has had troubles all season, on ice and off, but instead of finding a way out of their early season hole like the other two, the Wildcats keep digging.

        Back at the top of the standings, as the season has progressed, various other teams were finding themselves among the top four to round out the triumvirate of BU/UML/UVM.

        Merrimack had a strong start, but has fallen back. Providence has quietly been up and down at the cusp between Bye and Home for most of the season. Notre Dame has been roughly just behind PC for most of that time, as well.

        Connecticut's first season in the league was full of questions coming in. Certainly, they weren't projected to light the league in fire, but then again, they weren't expected to knock off then-top-ranked BC followed by chasing similarly ranked BU into a tie, at BU, only three days later. In fact, after the second BU/CT game, BU was 24-5 in scoring in the third period and OT, but four of those five goals against had come from UConn (the other from BC). The first five of the six total UConn goals had points from both Trevor Gerling and Shaun Pauly (both were 2-3-5). If those two teams meet in the playoffs somewhere, those would be the UConn players to keep an eye on besides BU's top line that gets the press.

        Maine has been streaky all season, but perhaps most notably the OT bounces have not been going their way. After getting three points from their first two OT games, Maine lost four straight OT games before holding on for the tie last Sunday at UConn. Those four OT losses staying as ties would put Maine on top of the mid-pack bubble instead of under it. Four goals there would have put the Black Bears into a three-way tie for second coming into this weekend.

        UMass has been up and down when it comes to scoring, but that happens. Their biggest issue has been keeping the puck out of their own net. They have only held opponents to three or fewer goals 11 times this season, and are 7-4 in those games. Their overall record is 8-18-1.

        From a seeding perspective, all we know so far is that UMA can't catch the top three of BU/UML/BC. UMA tops out at 4 and BC/UML bottom out at 11. Additionally, because of interlocking play among the 9-11 teams, BU can fall behind any two of the three, but not all three. BU bottoms out at 10.
        The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
        cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
        smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
        MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
        Scarlet - What he said.
        brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
        TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
        Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
        Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
        Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
        David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
        Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

          After Fri 2/6:
          BC 4 MC 2
          ND 4 ME 4 (OT)
          NU 5 UMA 3
          BU 5 UML 2
          UNH 2 UVM 5

          BU 26 - 38 [1-8]
          --- Home Lock – 26 w ME/MC tb, 27 w/o ---
          BC 22 - 32 [1-10]
          UML 20 - 30 [1-11]
          PC 17 - 31 [1-12]

          UVM 17 - 31 [1-12]
          ND 16 - 30 [1-12]
          NU 16 - 28 [1-12]
          CT 14 - 28 [1-12]

          ME 12 - 26 [2-12]
          MC 12 - 26 [2-12]
          UNH 9 - 23 [3-12]
          --- Top 4 Eligible - 19 (PC/ND) ---
          UMA 7 - 17 [7-12]

          Remaining LEAGUE schedules (NC in parentheses):
          BU - (BP v NU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2, NU, @NU
          BC - (BP v HU), UVMx2, UML, @NDx2
          UML - @UMA, (@UMA NC), UMA, @BC, UVMx2
          PC - CT, @NDx2, UMA, @UMA, MEx2
          UVM - UNH, @BCx2, MCx2, @UMLx2
          ND - @ME, PCx2, @BUx2, BCx2
          NU - (BP v BU), CT, @CT, @MEx2, @BU, BU
          CT - @PC, MC, @NU, NU, UNH, @UNH, UMA
          ME - ND, @MCx2, NUx2, @PCx2
          MC - @CT, MEx2, @UVMx2, @UNHx2
          UNH - @UVM, @BU, BU, @CT, CT, MCx2
          UMA - UML, (UML NC), @UML, @PC, PC, @CT

          BU's win over UML has a lot of implications. For starters, in the round robin among the season-long contenders BU/UML/UVM, BU has swept both of their series in that set. Should deep (tertiary) TBs come into play - where record working from the top of the standings down matters - BU and BC have already split, but BC has been dinged by UML in their first game, which would give BU the advantage in the current placements. Further down, PC has already split with both BU and BC, and swept UML, but then split with UVM (compared to BU's sweep). This gives BU the "if the season ended today" tbs against the teams currently joining them in the Top 5. The teams tied for 6th (NU and ND) have yet to play BU, so those can sort themselves out in the coming weeks.

          BU also remains four points up on 2nd place BC, and is now six ahead of UML in 3rd, with a game in hand over each. With only five games left for BC and UML - one of them against each other - and BU facing a struggling UNH for two next weekend, BU could wrap up not only a bye, but also the 1 seed overall as soon as next weekend.

          Of course, most importantly, it is two more points, which - combined with the night's other results - puts BU clear of the bottom four teams, with H2H tbs over both ME and MC. Even though there is interplay between NU and CT, so that both can't be higher than a tie at 26, they could both come out ahead in a 3-way tb with BU there, so BU doesn't get any higher than bottoming out at 8. Still, BU will be having home games in the playoffs, whether first round or after the bye.

          ---
          BC's win means that they will now also be ahead of at least one of MC and UNH - who face off for two on the final weekend - so BC now bottoms out at 10.

          ---
          At the other end of the stack, as mentioned, ME/MC/UNH can all now not catch BU, as mentioned, so they would all top out at 2.

          UNH, however, drops another notch because of the interplay between BC/UML/UVM which leaves the 'Cats behind someone in that trio at their new max of 23.

          UMA drops below the Bye line, because PC and ND still have a pair. That leaves at least one of them at 19 points and out of reach of UMA. Further, with the interplay in the middle of the stack, I can't get UMA even as high as 6th.
          Last edited by Todd; 02-08-2015, 05:11 PM.
          The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
          cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
          smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
          MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
          Scarlet - What he said.
          brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
          TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
          Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
          Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
          Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
          David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
          Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

            After Sat 2/7:
            ND 5 ME 1
            CT 1 PC 10
            UML 2 UMA 5
            UNH 6 UVM 3

            BU 26 - 38 [1-8]
            --- Home Lock – 26 w MC tb, 27 w/o ---
            BC 22 - 32 [1-10]
            UML 20 - 28 [1-11]
            PC 19 - 31 [1-11]

            ND 18 - 30 [1-11]
            UVM 17 - 29 [1-11]
            NU 16 - 28 [1-12]
            CT 14 - 26 [1-12]

            MC 12 - 26 [2-12]
            ME 12 - 24 [2-12]
            UNH 11 - 23 [3-12]
            --- Top 4 Eligible - 21 (PC/ND, UML/UVM) ---
            UMA 9 - 17 [8-12]

            Remaining LEAGUE schedules (NC in parentheses):
            BU - (BP v NU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2, NU, @NU
            BC - (BP v HU), UVMx2, UML, @NDx2
            UML - (@UMA NC), UMA, @BC, UVMx2
            PC - @NDx2, UMA, @UMA, MEx2
            ND - PCx2, @BUx2, BCx2
            UVM - @BCx2, MCx2, @UMLx2
            NU - (BP v BU), CT, @CT, @MEx2, @BU, BU
            CT - MC, @NU, NU, UNH, @UNH, UMA
            MC - @CT, MEx2, @UVMx2, @UNHx2
            ME - @MCx2, NUx2, @PCx2
            UNH - @BU, BU, @CT, CT, MCx2
            UMA - (UML NC), @UML, @PC, PC, @CT

            The Beanpot schools have the night off. Since there are three of those, and an even number of teams is needed for games, another HE team has the night off - in this case, MC.

            While speaking about NC games, it should be noted that next Friday's UML @ UMA game is NC. These two teams will be playing each other for three straight games and the middle one doesn't count in the league standings. Not sure why they make UML make the trip to UMA on two different weekends, instead of flipping the sites for games 1 and 3 in the set (giving two @ UMA next weekend), but I'm not in charge of scheduling...

            ---
            UML's loss tonight continues a troubling trend for them. In the first semester, UML had three losses total, then swept not one, but TWO holiday tourneys. Since then, they are now 2-7. They have four HE games left and trail #1 BU by six points, losing the tb. While they are third in banked points, their max is now in a tie for sixth. Those last four games are against UMA - who just beat them - plus at BC, and a final home pair against a similarly situated UVM team. Not an easy path, but it's the one they have put themselves on.

            ---
            The wins by PC and ND pull them ahead of UVM. With their games-in-hand over BC, they are 1 and 2 points, respectively behind BC in max points.

            The collective wins also mean that instead of this pair having at least one team at 19, one must now hit 21. In addition, one of UML/UVM must also hit 21.

            ---
            Wins at the bottom for UNH and UMA keep their slim hopes alive for a Bye and a Home series, respectively.

            Even though UMA could squeak into a five-way tie in 7th at 17 with four out of five of UVM/NU/CT/MC/ME, that would leave UNH ahead of that pack. Too many points to squeeze in the middle of the pack to let UMA get up to 7th. They are now one slot away from a road trip in the first round.
            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
            Scarlet - What he said.
            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

              Todd, that is some fantastic analysis right there. Thank you, as always.

              I was wondering when this was going to show up.
              Originally posted by nmupiccdiva
              ...anyone that can start a meme like that is welcome and will fit in just fine around here.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                After Tue 2/10:
                MC 0 CT 1

                BU 26 - 38 [1-7]
                --- Home Lock – 24 w MC tb, 27 w/o ---
                BC 22 - 32 [1-10]
                UML 20 - 28 [1-11]
                PC 19 - 31 [1-11]

                ND 18 - 30 [1-11]
                UVM 17 - 29 [1-11]
                NU 16 - 28 [1-12]
                CT 16 - 26 [1-12]

                MC 12 - 24 [2-12]
                ME 12 - 24 [2-12]
                UNH 11 - 23 [3-12]
                --- Top 4 Eligible - 21 (PC/ND, UML/UVM) ---
                UMA 9 - 17 [8-12]

                Remaining LEAGUE schedules (NC in parentheses):
                BU - UNH, @UNH, NDx2, (BP v NU), NU, @NU
                BC - UVMx2, UML, (BP v HU), @NDx2
                UML - (@UMA NC), UMA, @BC, UVMx2
                PC - @NDx2, UMA, @UMA, MEx2
                ND - PCx2, @BUx2, BCx2
                UVM - @BCx2, MCx2, @UMLx2
                NU - CT, @CT, @MEx2, (BP v BU), @BU, BU
                CT - @NU, NU, UNH, @UNH, UMA
                MC - MEx2, @UVMx2, @UNHx2
                ME - @MCx2, NUx2, @PCx2
                UNH - @BU, BU, @CT, CT, MCx2
                UMA - (UML NC), @UML, @PC, PC, @CT

                The Beanpot schools all had their schedules altered again by the continual record-breaking Boston-area snowfall. The Beanpot second week games have been rescheduled for Feb 23. That has a couple of interesting impacts on scheduling.

                For BU and NU, that means they will each finish their entire regular season schedule against the rest of the country without facing each other once. Then, they will play each other three times (Home, Away, and Neutral) in six days. Of course, all three games are played at Boston addresses, so it's really a matter of rinks and locker rooms, not overnights and long bus or plane rides. Then again, in the snow-choked streets of Boston, ALL road travel is long road travel right now.

                Normally these three schools have only a Fri night game - one home, one away - on the weekends leading into the Beanpot, giving them a Fri-Mon-Fri-Mon schedule. (The ECAC's travel-pair schedule doesn't usually give Harvard that flexibility.) With this unexpected change, some of them will be vulnerable to a Fri-Sat-Mon-Fri-Sat run at the end of the Regular Season.

                For BU, they will spend the prior weekend hosting ND for two. Then the Garden, home, and away with NU. That looks to be the easiest travel schedule of the three HE 'Pot schools. NU will spend the prior weekend at Maine for two, then at the Garden and away at BU before returning for their Senior Night closer.

                BC has a slight schedule advantage by luck of the draw in that they only have a Sat home game vs UML before their Monday consolation game w/ Harvard (who will be on the Northern NY swing vs SLU and Clarkson for the lead-in Fri and Sat). That UML game, however, is BC's Senior Night. After the Beanpot, they need to head all the way out to South Bend for two. Given how challenging the ND-BC series was around this same time last year, that extra game could be a factor.

                Another potential impact of the late arriving Beanpot finale is that seeding picture in HE may be clearer with only two games to play. How that might impact how BU and NU choose to prioritize the Beanpot Final, or BC the Consolation game, remains to be worked out in the intervening weeks.

                The impact of possible first round byes in the HE tourney may also come into play. For example, if BU has a first round bye wrapped up, but NU is locked into a 5-8 home ice slot, what will that do to the lineups of which games? Would Witt or O'Connor play all five games in that stretch, for example?

                Something to keep an eye on.

                ---
                Now to the game that was actually played on Tuesday.

                CT's win over MC creates a little bit of space between the bottom four and the middle tier. The difference between Bye and Home is a little more muddled.

                To demonstrate: The four-point gap between the 8th seed and 9th is matched by the gap between that same 8th seed and the 3rd seed. That gap isn't insurmountable, but it is a real break between Home and Away for the first round.

                ---
                The MC loss puts a huge premium on the next weekend for some teams looking to jump that gap or stay above it.

                First off, just below that gap, Maine and Merrimack (tied at 12 pts) face off for two in North Andover next weekend. If either can sweep, that puts an opportunity to move up into the winner's hands for the following weekend.

                These will be MC's last two home games of the RS, but they will travel for pairs to Vermont - who they are chasing - and UNH - one point behind - in the final two weekends. Not sure why MC goes to UNH for two, rather than H&H, but last year they did play two @ MC.

                Maine would be looking to leverage any advantage gained into their final two series hosting NU and visiting PC.

                ---
                Similarly, just above that gap, CT and NU (both at 16) also play two, in a H&H series. Within striking distance of CT and NU, PC (19) and ND (18) play two at Schneider.

                A winner in the CT/NU series could start moving up towards a possible Bye, perhaps gaining ground on a PC/ND loser. A CT/NU loser would be vulnerable to the MC/ME winner. Splits all around keep the status quo, but burn two of the five (CT) or six (other five) games remaining - helping those already ahead and hampering those currently behind.

                ---
                As for seeding ranges, all of the bottom four cannot catch BU. Given the NU/CT series, at least one of them has to fall below BU's banked 26 points. BU's bottom is now 7th.

                ---
                The key interplay series mentioned above should also shake out some of the logjams of possibilities that are keeping some teams from concentrating their seed ranges to a narrower bandwidth.
                Last edited by Todd; 02-11-2015, 05:19 PM.
                The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                Scarlet - What he said.
                brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                  always love this, thanks

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                    So with the new format, could it be beneficial for teams on the NCAA bubble like Lowell and UVM to have to play those first round games to add two more wins to their resume?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                      Originally posted by bottomdweller View Post
                      So with the new format, could it be beneficial for teams on the NCAA bubble like Lowell and UVM to have to play those first round games to add two more wins to their resume?
                      I was just thinking that. If NU was to continue to play the way they are playing. If they were say #18 in PWR, would a 2 game sweep as the prelim HE round put them in?
                      The Artist formally known as Steve66

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                      • #12
                        Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                        I don't really post here any more, but I always come back this time of year for this thread - thanks and keep it coming!
                        Originally posted by owslachief
                        Furthermore, here are the best predictors of particular leagues:

                        Hockey East (9 points) ... sameoldfury

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                        • #13
                          Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                          Originally posted by retsap71 View Post
                          I was just thinking that. If NU was to continue to play the way they are playing. If they were say #18 in PWR, would a 2 game sweep as the prelim HE round put them in?
                          I doubt it, because if they stay hot and get the prelim round that would probably be as the 5 seed, and I can't imagine two wins over UMass would be enough t bump them up 4-5 spots (really need to be 13 or so).

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                          • #14
                            Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                            Obviously, the best assumption is that if you keep winning, you have the best chance of continuing to play.

                            The key to using any playoff round to advance your NCAA chances is not just the wins, but the strength of the opponent beaten.

                            In 09-10, HE sent three teams to the NCAAs, but they were the 1, 2, and 8 seeds. That year was one of the tightest races in HE history (the only 3-way tie, plus the span from 3rd to 9th was 4 pts). In fact, UVM - the last team in to the HE tourney at the 8th seed - needed things to break just right to squeak past NU who ended up 9th. In the first round, UVM took 1-seed UNH to three games (winning the final two by matching 1-0 scores) @ UNH. They then faced 2-seed BC in the HE Semis. Those four extra games against strong RPI teams definitely boosted their strength of schedule, and their own RPI - lifting them into the tourney. Had they had one more point, they might have moved up to 7th or 6th seed, and would not have faced UNH three times. Facing BC (or one of the teams tied at 3) - even three times - in the first round might not have done the trick for the NCAA bid. One fewer point, and NU might have taken their place in the HE tourney and UVM's season would have ended at UML on the final RS weekend. Battling for a tie at Tsongas on the final RS night set the stage for UVM to make an NCAA run by leveraging their HE seed.

                            However, in other cases (under prior formats of the PWR, with the TUC cliff and a different calculation for COP), the QF matchups have been actually damaging to NCAA chances. For example, for BU on at least two occasions their QF pairings (NU and MC, for sure, perhaps PC as well) put them in a no-win situation re: the PWR. In tight PWR races in each of these years, they had winning records (3-0 or 2-1) against their QF opponent that were adding to their TUC total and keeping them above the bubble. However, their opponent was close enough to the TUC cliff that BU winning their QF games would actually drop their foe over the TUC cliff and not only the new wins, but also the old wins would go away from TUC consideration. Losses in the QF would conversely keep the foe a TUC, and those losses would cou against the Terriers. Simply by getting unlucky with the seedings, BU was faced with either eliminating their prior wins, or picking up new losses - either case damaging their TUC record and their NCAA chances.

                            The current PWR format makes all but the rarest cases come down to just RPI.

                            With TUC now gone (all teams are considered), and L20/L16 long gone, there are now only three PWR criteria: RPI, COP, H2H. RPI remains the tie breaker.

                            If teams never face each other, H2H goes away and there are two factors. Teams will either sweep/be swept or split. Since RPI is the TB, with no H2H (which will apply many times) the COP is irrelevant as RPI decides the splits anyway.

                            If teams do face each other, an even split of any kind (1-1, 1-1-1, 0-0-1, 0-0-2, ...) in H2H puts us back into the above scenario - aka all-RPI. If, as in HE, there are two league games (and no NC additions to the series), those 1-1 splits among teams close in PWR should be easy to come by.

                            Even if a team sweeps 2-0 in H2H, they would also have to win COP to beat out the RPI TB. Ex: if one team is 2-0 in H2H, but the other team takes RPI and COP, it is a 2-2 split in PWR and the RPI decides the pair.

                            So the only scenarios where the RPI winner (Team A) doesn't take a given pair are where:
                            Team B has an advantage in H2H and wins COP, or
                            Team B has a three-point advantage or more in H2H (3-1 doesn't cut it, but 3-0 or 3-0-1 would), cleanly beating two points of RPI-COP.

                            With that in mind, strength of schedule is going to be important in adding to your RPI in the league tourney. If the opponent is too weak, the wins will be dropped (beating a terrible opponent could still drop your RPI, so those cases are removed from the math) and any losses will really hurt. Location of wins ( or losses) may also be important, for the weighting given to road wins and home losses (if those bonuses extend into the league tourneys).

                            In HE, that means that you want to beat the strongest opponent that you can. Of course, facing a stronger opponent also likely makes it harder to win the current game and wears you out for the next game, if successfully moving on.

                            Pick your poison, but win in any event.
                            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
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                            • #15
                              Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

                              Originally posted by retsap71 View Post
                              I was just thinking that. If NU was to continue to play the way they are playing. If they were say #18 in PWR, would a 2 game sweep as the prelim HE round put them in?
                              For NU specifically, the three they play with BU to finish the RS is likely to impact their RPI more than beating a low seed twice in the QF. Winning the second series (assuming a strong opponent) to get to the Garden, and perhaps who they would face in the Semi, should also have an impact.
                              The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
                              cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
                              smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
                              MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
                              Scarlet - What he said.
                              brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
                              TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
                              Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
                              Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
                              Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
                              David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
                              Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

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