First, a little history. Thanks to the (now-defunct) Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 12 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 22 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 170 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 170 teams, 122 (71.8%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 42 of the 48 (88%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 48 (77%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 27 of the 48 (56%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Ohio State is the only #1 team (2012) to fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In five of the last eight years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Two years ago Wisconsin was ranked #42 in the RPI (unranked by pairwise) and rose to the #14 overall seed. Three years ago Union was ranked #25 and came all the way back to win the ECAC, get a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four. Last year #24 Colgate was the lowest team to earn an at-large berth.
38 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year, all teams seeded 9-12 fell out of the eventual field.
A few of the rules to help clarify things.
1) All teams that qualify for at-large berths must have a .500 record or better (Wisconsin rule) to receive an invitation to the tournament.
2) Host teams MUST be placed in the regional they are hosting.
3) #1 seeds are placed are placed in the closest regional (except when noted below)
4) There are no intraconference games allowed in the first round (like Harvard-Yale) UNLESS there are five or more teams from that conference in the tournament. Given the history, the NCAA tries to avoid all intraconference match ups if possible, regardless of how many teams from one conference there are.
5) The NCAA has a rule that any team that is not 400 miles from the regional location must fly to said regional. They have a Wernher von Braun approach to flights: "Once the planes go up, who cares where they come down?" In NCAA parlance, a flight is a flight (if anyone successfully negotiates this with an airline, please let me know!) For schools like Denver and UNO, that means they can go to any regional.
6) Teams are banded 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16. Teams can be placed anywhere within the band but cannot under any circumstance switch bands. If North Dakota finishes #8 in the pairwise, they cannot be a #3 seed. However, the NCAA would prefer to follow the 1-16/8-9 etc pairing as much as possible.
7) All bracketology pretends the season ends TODAY. It is not an estimation of where teams will end up. My bracketology is also an approximation of what I think the committee would do - not necessarily what I would do.
8) There are no right answers. We are all guessing. We don't know exactly what the committee will do until Selection Sunday. There may be additional rules that I have not published here and I often go by precedent. However, not all things are known.
One note before we begin: The data is stored on another hard drive which is inaccessible to me at the moment. That will make this difficult, but not impossible.
And finally, I hope everyone bears in mind rule #8 and we can keep this friendly. There are bound to be disagreements and some fans just can't play well together (looking at you, UND and Gopher fans! ) but there is no reason for this thread to devolve into a flamewar!
And now, without further ado, here are the official pairwise as of January 1:
1 Minnesota State
2 Harvard
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Boston University
5 Minnesota
6 Bowling Green
7 Michigan Tech
8 Vermont
9 Miami
10 Nebraska-Omaha
11 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Providence
14 Merrimack
15 Yale
16 Denver
---
17 Quinnipiac
18 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
20 Michigan
21 Robert Morris
22t Boston College
22t Alaska
24t Penn State
24t Union
26 St. Cloud State
27 Mercyhurst
28 St. Lawrence
29t Northern Michigan
29t Clarkson
31t Notre Dame
31t Cornell
31t Connecticut
34t Ohio State
34t Western Michigan
36t Northeastern
36t Bemidji State
38 Holy Cross
39 Bentley
40 Ferris State
41 Rensselaer
42t New Hampshire
42t Michigan State
44 Alaska-Anchorage
45t Canisius
45t Massachusetts
45t Colorado College
48 Brown
49t Alabama-Huntsville
49t RIT
51 Sacred Heart
52 Princeton
53 Air Force
54t Lake Superior
54t Maine
56 Army
57 Wisconsin
58 American International
59 Niagara
We seed the top AHA team 16th to simulate the autobid which gives us a field of:
Minnesota State
Harvard
Minnesota-Duluth
Boston University
Minnesota
Bowling Green
Michigan Tech
Vermont
Miami
Nebraska-Omaha
North Dakota
Massachusetts-Lowell
Providence
Merrimack
Yale
Robert Morris
Western Regional - Fargo, ND (Host: North Dakota)
#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs Miami
Midwest Regional - South Bend, IN (Host: Notre Dame)
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs North Dakota
East Regional - Providence, RI (Host: Brown)
#4 Boston U vs Providence
Minnesota vs Lowell
Northeast Regional - Manchester, NH (Host: New Hampshire)
#2 Harvard vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha
We have a few issues.
First, we must seed North Dakota in the west regional because they are the host. Second, we have multiple first round games that cannot happen.
So we fix this:
Fargo
#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs North Dakota
South Bend
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs Miami
Providence
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Minnesota vs Lowell
Manchester
#2 Harvard vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha
This looks good, but we can make it better by switching the Manchester and Providence regionals. BU and Harvard are practically neighbors so Providence and Manchester are equidistant for both schools. That gives us a final bracketology of:
38 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year, all teams seeded 9-12 fell out of the eventual field.
A few of the rules to help clarify things.
1) All teams that qualify for at-large berths must have a .500 record or better (Wisconsin rule) to receive an invitation to the tournament.
2) Host teams MUST be placed in the regional they are hosting.
3) #1 seeds are placed are placed in the closest regional (except when noted below)
4) There are no intraconference games allowed in the first round (like Harvard-Yale) UNLESS there are five or more teams from that conference in the tournament. Given the history, the NCAA tries to avoid all intraconference match ups if possible, regardless of how many teams from one conference there are.
5) The NCAA has a rule that any team that is not 400 miles from the regional location must fly to said regional. They have a Wernher von Braun approach to flights: "Once the planes go up, who cares where they come down?" In NCAA parlance, a flight is a flight (if anyone successfully negotiates this with an airline, please let me know!) For schools like Denver and UNO, that means they can go to any regional.
6) Teams are banded 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16. Teams can be placed anywhere within the band but cannot under any circumstance switch bands. If North Dakota finishes #8 in the pairwise, they cannot be a #3 seed. However, the NCAA would prefer to follow the 1-16/8-9 etc pairing as much as possible.
7) All bracketology pretends the season ends TODAY. It is not an estimation of where teams will end up. My bracketology is also an approximation of what I think the committee would do - not necessarily what I would do.
8) There are no right answers. We are all guessing. We don't know exactly what the committee will do until Selection Sunday. There may be additional rules that I have not published here and I often go by precedent. However, not all things are known.
One note before we begin: The data is stored on another hard drive which is inaccessible to me at the moment. That will make this difficult, but not impossible.
And finally, I hope everyone bears in mind rule #8 and we can keep this friendly. There are bound to be disagreements and some fans just can't play well together (looking at you, UND and Gopher fans! ) but there is no reason for this thread to devolve into a flamewar!
And now, without further ado, here are the official pairwise as of January 1:
1 Minnesota State
2 Harvard
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Boston University
5 Minnesota
6 Bowling Green
7 Michigan Tech
8 Vermont
9 Miami
10 Nebraska-Omaha
11 North Dakota
12 Massachusetts-Lowell
13 Providence
14 Merrimack
15 Yale
16 Denver
---
17 Quinnipiac
18 Colgate
19 Dartmouth
20 Michigan
21 Robert Morris
22t Boston College
22t Alaska
24t Penn State
24t Union
26 St. Cloud State
27 Mercyhurst
28 St. Lawrence
29t Northern Michigan
29t Clarkson
31t Notre Dame
31t Cornell
31t Connecticut
34t Ohio State
34t Western Michigan
36t Northeastern
36t Bemidji State
38 Holy Cross
39 Bentley
40 Ferris State
41 Rensselaer
42t New Hampshire
42t Michigan State
44 Alaska-Anchorage
45t Canisius
45t Massachusetts
45t Colorado College
48 Brown
49t Alabama-Huntsville
49t RIT
51 Sacred Heart
52 Princeton
53 Air Force
54t Lake Superior
54t Maine
56 Army
57 Wisconsin
58 American International
59 Niagara
We seed the top AHA team 16th to simulate the autobid which gives us a field of:
Minnesota State
Harvard
Minnesota-Duluth
Boston University
Minnesota
Bowling Green
Michigan Tech
Vermont
Miami
Nebraska-Omaha
North Dakota
Massachusetts-Lowell
Providence
Merrimack
Yale
Robert Morris
Western Regional - Fargo, ND (Host: North Dakota)
#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs Miami
Midwest Regional - South Bend, IN (Host: Notre Dame)
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs North Dakota
East Regional - Providence, RI (Host: Brown)
#4 Boston U vs Providence
Minnesota vs Lowell
Northeast Regional - Manchester, NH (Host: New Hampshire)
#2 Harvard vs Yale
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha
We have a few issues.
First, we must seed North Dakota in the west regional because they are the host. Second, we have multiple first round games that cannot happen.
So we fix this:
Fargo
#1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
Vermont vs North Dakota
South Bend
#3 Duluth vs Merrimack
Bowling Green vs Miami
Providence
#4 Boston U vs Yale
Minnesota vs Lowell
Manchester
#2 Harvard vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha
This looks good, but we can make it better by switching the Manchester and Providence regionals. BU and Harvard are practically neighbors so Providence and Manchester are equidistant for both schools. That gives us a final bracketology of:
Code:
Manchester Providence South Bend Fargo Boston U Harvard Duluth Mankato Minnesota Michigan Tech Bowling Green Vermont Lowell Neb-Omaha Miami North Dakota Yale Providence Merrimack Robert Morris
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