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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

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  • The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

    First, a little history. Thanks to the (now-defunct) Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 12 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 22 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 170 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 170 teams, 122 (71.8%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 42 of the 48 (88%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 48 (77%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 27 of the 48 (56%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Ohio State is the only #1 team (2012) to fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In five of the last eight years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Two years ago Wisconsin was ranked #42 in the RPI (unranked by pairwise) and rose to the #14 overall seed. Three years ago Union was ranked #25 and came all the way back to win the ECAC, get a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four. Last year #24 Colgate was the lowest team to earn an at-large berth.

    38 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year, all teams seeded 9-12 fell out of the eventual field.

    A few of the rules to help clarify things.

    1) All teams that qualify for at-large berths must have a .500 record or better (Wisconsin rule) to receive an invitation to the tournament.
    2) Host teams MUST be placed in the regional they are hosting.
    3) #1 seeds are placed are placed in the closest regional (except when noted below)
    4) There are no intraconference games allowed in the first round (like Harvard-Yale) UNLESS there are five or more teams from that conference in the tournament. Given the history, the NCAA tries to avoid all intraconference match ups if possible, regardless of how many teams from one conference there are.
    5) The NCAA has a rule that any team that is not 400 miles from the regional location must fly to said regional. They have a Wernher von Braun approach to flights: "Once the planes go up, who cares where they come down?" In NCAA parlance, a flight is a flight (if anyone successfully negotiates this with an airline, please let me know!) For schools like Denver and UNO, that means they can go to any regional.
    6) Teams are banded 1-4, 5-8, 9-12 and 13-16. Teams can be placed anywhere within the band but cannot under any circumstance switch bands. If North Dakota finishes #8 in the pairwise, they cannot be a #3 seed. However, the NCAA would prefer to follow the 1-16/8-9 etc pairing as much as possible.
    7) All bracketology pretends the season ends TODAY. It is not an estimation of where teams will end up. My bracketology is also an approximation of what I think the committee would do - not necessarily what I would do.
    8) There are no right answers. We are all guessing. We don't know exactly what the committee will do until Selection Sunday. There may be additional rules that I have not published here and I often go by precedent. However, not all things are known.

    One note before we begin: The data is stored on another hard drive which is inaccessible to me at the moment. That will make this difficult, but not impossible.

    And finally, I hope everyone bears in mind rule #8 and we can keep this friendly. There are bound to be disagreements and some fans just can't play well together (looking at you, UND and Gopher fans! ) but there is no reason for this thread to devolve into a flamewar!

    And now, without further ado, here are the official pairwise as of January 1:

    1 Minnesota State
    2 Harvard
    3 Minnesota-Duluth
    4 Boston University
    5 Minnesota
    6 Bowling Green
    7 Michigan Tech
    8 Vermont
    9 Miami
    10 Nebraska-Omaha
    11 North Dakota
    12 Massachusetts-Lowell
    13 Providence
    14 Merrimack
    15 Yale
    16 Denver
    ---
    17 Quinnipiac
    18 Colgate
    19 Dartmouth
    20 Michigan
    21 Robert Morris
    22t Boston College
    22t Alaska
    24t Penn State
    24t Union
    26 St. Cloud State
    27 Mercyhurst
    28 St. Lawrence
    29t Northern Michigan
    29t Clarkson
    31t Notre Dame
    31t Cornell
    31t Connecticut
    34t Ohio State
    34t Western Michigan
    36t Northeastern
    36t Bemidji State
    38 Holy Cross
    39 Bentley
    40 Ferris State
    41 Rensselaer
    42t New Hampshire
    42t Michigan State
    44 Alaska-Anchorage
    45t Canisius
    45t Massachusetts
    45t Colorado College
    48 Brown
    49t Alabama-Huntsville
    49t RIT
    51 Sacred Heart
    52 Princeton
    53 Air Force
    54t Lake Superior
    54t Maine
    56 Army
    57 Wisconsin
    58 American International
    59 Niagara


    We seed the top AHA team 16th to simulate the autobid which gives us a field of:

    Minnesota State
    Harvard
    Minnesota-Duluth
    Boston University
    Minnesota
    Bowling Green
    Michigan Tech
    Vermont
    Miami
    Nebraska-Omaha
    North Dakota
    Massachusetts-Lowell
    Providence
    Merrimack
    Yale
    Robert Morris


    Western Regional - Fargo, ND (Host: North Dakota)

    #1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
    Vermont vs Miami

    Midwest Regional - South Bend, IN (Host: Notre Dame)
    #3 Duluth vs Merrimack
    Bowling Green vs North Dakota

    East Regional - Providence, RI (Host: Brown)
    #4 Boston U vs Providence
    Minnesota vs Lowell

    Northeast Regional - Manchester, NH (Host: New Hampshire)
    #2 Harvard vs Yale
    Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha

    We have a few issues.
    First, we must seed North Dakota in the west regional because they are the host. Second, we have multiple first round games that cannot happen.

    So we fix this:

    Fargo
    #1 Mankato vs Robert Morris
    Vermont vs North Dakota

    South Bend
    #3 Duluth vs Merrimack
    Bowling Green vs Miami

    Providence
    #4 Boston U vs Yale
    Minnesota vs Lowell

    Manchester
    #2 Harvard vs Providence
    Michigan Tech vs Neb-Omaha

    This looks good, but we can make it better by switching the Manchester and Providence regionals. BU and Harvard are practically neighbors so Providence and Manchester are equidistant for both schools. That gives us a final bracketology of:

    Code:
    Manchester	Providence	South Bend	Fargo
    Boston U	Harvard		Duluth		Mankato
    Minnesota	Michigan Tech	Bowling Green	Vermont
    Lowell		Neb-Omaha	Miami	        North Dakota
    Yale		Providence	Merrimack       Robert Morris

  • #2
    Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

    A little more history:
    Boston College, Maine, Wisconsin and Michigan are not in the field as of today. The last time one of those four schools did not make the tournament was 1980.
    This would mark the first NCAA berth for Bowling Green since 1990; the first for Michigan Tech since 1981.
    Yale is currently #15 overall. When the Bulldogs won the title in 2013 they were also #15 overall.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

      uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.
      a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

        Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
        uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.
        I'll check, but I don't think there's anything in the rules about asking mookie's opinion

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

          well, should be
          a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

            Manchester isn't terrible
            Yes I am the former member known as Zlax45

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by The Zlax45 View Post
              Manchester isn't terrible
              Agreed. Worcester is by far the worst.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                Originally posted by Middle Street View Post
                Agreed. Worcester is by far the worst.
                I like Wooster, I mean Worcester.... Maybe HC should host next time.I mean their rink is big enough
                And Albany has to be the worst, Or Cincinnati.
                MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                  Originally posted by The Zlax45 View Post
                  Manchester isn't terrible
                  mookie picked apples over oranges. that's all.

                  worcester has a cigar bar right across the street from the centrum, that's carries a lot of weight to the + side.
                  a legend and an out of work bum look a lot alike, daddy.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                    Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                    I like Wooster, I mean Worcester.... Maybe HC should host next time.I mean their rink is big enough
                    And Albany has to be the worst, Or Cincinnati.
                    They are hosting next year - at the DCU Center. Also, Miami is hosting in Cincinnati. Oh, and the ECAC is hosting in Albany. So there you go.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                      I assume your stats are kept since they increased the teams to 16? What was the system before that? Have they always used the PWR?
                      tUMD Hockey

                      "And there is a banana running around the DECC." "Well you don't see that every day..."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                        Originally posted by mookie1995 View Post
                        uh thanks, but mookie would rather be in providence for a weekend than manchvegas.
                        Yes, and I'd prefer Manchester. Am I correct in thinking there is no meaningful reason why BU/Harvard would be assigned to Manchester/Providence or vice versa?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                          Originally posted by Biddco View Post
                          I assume your stats are kept since they increased the teams to 16? What was the system before that? Have they always used the PWR?
                          Yes, these stats are since the tournament expanded to 16 in 2003. From 1992-02 they had 12 teams at a neutral site, with the top 2 teams in the east and west receiving byes. They used pairwise with some exceptions. If a team won both the Hockey East, ECAC, WCHA or CCHA regular season and tournament titles, they automatically received a bye even if they were ranked behind another team. See: Clarkson in 1999. They were much more regimented in seeding 1-6 in each region and crossed over the #5 and #6 seeds so #3 East would play #6 West and so on. They played the first night, then would play one of the teams that received a bye the next day.

                          From 1989-1991 there were 12 teams, but they played best two of three in each round at the higher seed. From 1981-1987 the tournament was 8 teams, two games/total goals format. The tournament expanded to 12 teams in 1988 and the same format used. From 1948-1976 it was just the Frozen Four. From 1977-1981 it expanded to 6 teams playing a single elimination format.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                            Originally posted by Crimson on the Glass View Post
                            Yes, and I'd prefer Manchester. Am I correct in thinking there is no meaningful reason why BU/Harvard would be assigned to Manchester/Providence or vice versa?
                            I am working under the assumption that for NCAA purposes, Harvard and BU are essentially equidistant from both regionals and therefore interchangeable.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

                              Happy new year to you too, Priceless! The annual 'simple math' thread is always a good one.

                              Comment

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