The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[vizoroo]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Jim Dahl might grace us with his computer calculations, but it would appear that all of the top 8 have clinched spots. In fact, with a projection of UMD sweeping at Denver, neither team moved. The statistics say that at least two of the teams currently in the mix will fall out of the field.

This sounds reasonable to me but I'm no Jim Dahl. If true, DU losing in 2 or 3 might be the better path to Boston. No sense burning gas against all the high flyers we've already bumped heads with all season. Enough already!

That worked pretty well in 2004 in Boston

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Where would UMD go if they got swept?

No idea. They would fall to at least a two seed and could drop to a 3-seed by the time the other conferences are done.

The thing to bear in mind about where teams will end up:
Miami+Bowling Green will be in South Bend whenever possible.
As long as three #1 seeds (or BU and 2 other #1 seeds) have to fly, regionals are up in the air. Because a flight is a flight, the committee can place the top seeds wherever and maintain bracket integrity. Right now Duluth and Mankato are interchangeable depending on what the attendance needs are. They could easily end up in either of the eastern sites. If Denver were to replace Miami as a #1 seed, all three of those teams could end up at any of the three regionals - depending on how they align with teams below them.

Attendance:
Fargo - all set, tickets sold and UND in region
South Bend - tickets sold but needs Miami and/or Bowling Green (Michigan would help) for butts in the seats
Providence - MA/CT/RI teams ideal
Manchester - MA teams ideal

[Biddco]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

It's fun to do this each week but you guys are getting awfully hung up on little details. The simple answer to your question Biddy is it depends on EVERYTHING ELSE

I know. Hence why I'm too lazy to do those models. Too many combinations.

[Red Cows]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I agree -- Denver looks pretty safe if swept, Providence does not.

playoffstatus.com concurs:

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html

Appears everyone 8 and up is in, even if any of them lose out.

[LTsatch]

playoffstatus.com concurs:

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html

Appears everyone 8 and up is in, even if any of them lose out.

That thing has the rankings around 13-15 completely wrong, even has SCSU in the field.

[Numbers]

playoffstatus.com concurs:

http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/...npartprob.html

Appears everyone 8 and up is in, even if any of them lose out.

As had been said, those guys don't use PWR.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I really wish we had slack.net right now
I'd like to fiddle around with combinations but there is no good way to get to an end point. Guess I'll have to wait one more week.

[Patman]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

That thing has the rankings around 13-15 completely wrong, even has SCSU in the field.

which, again, points to how annoying creating a simulator can be... I know I've done it in the past... but anyways.

Jim probably could put together a good straight probabalistic analysis based on the rest of the playoffs... the problem prior to that is computing standings and tie-breakers. Now that we're in playoff mode its all straight determinalism. The hard part, writing the PWR code, is done. Only issue would be 3rd place game ties... krach doesnt do ties

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

which, again, points to how annoying creating a simulator can be... I know I've done it in the past... but anyways.

Jim probably could put together a good straight probabalistic analysis based on the rest of the playoffs... the problem prior to that is computing standings and tie-breakers. Now that we're in playoff mode its all straight determinalism. The hard part, writing the PWR code, is done. Only issue would be 3rd place game ties... krach doesnt do ties

Except for the Big...

[joecct]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

You could go here: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

Hit customize and enter results from Friday and Saturday. Sorry, it does not go any deeper.

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Jim Dahl might grace us with his computer calculations, but it would appear that all of the top 8 have clinched spots. In fact, with a projection of UMD sweeping at Denver, neither team moved. Providence and Boston College still have work to do to wrap up a spot and anyone below them is too close to the bubble to rest easy. The statistics say that at least two of the teams currently in the mix will fall out of the field.

Jim's current analysis. http://collegehockeyranked.com/

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

So the conclusion that we came to, that the top 8 are safe, seems to be confirmed.

[Patman]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Except for the Big...

bleep

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

You could go here: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php

Hit customize and enter results from Friday and Saturday. Sorry, it does not go any deeper.

And it resets after each entry, so if you wanted to change one result, you'd have to enter everything all over again.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

which, again, points to how annoying creating a simulator can be... I know I've done it in the past... but anyways.

Jim probably could put together a good straight probabalistic analysis based on the rest of the playoffs... the problem prior to that is computing standings and tie-breakers. Now that we're in playoff mode its all straight determinalism. The hard part, writing the PWR code, is done. Only issue would be 3rd place game ties... krach doesnt do ties

Do any of the leagues still have a third place game? I thought that after the ECAC dropped it last year, they were all gone.