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  • Latest D1 Power Rankings

    The full list and R code.

    Code:
     rk  |             school              | div |  str  |  ofs  |  dfs  |  sos  
    -----+---------------------------------+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------
       1 | harvard                         |   1 | 3.893 | 1.878 | 0.483 | 1.464
       2 | minnesota-duluth                |   1 | 3.820 | 1.858 | 0.486 | 1.593
       3 | vermont                         |   1 | 3.743 | 1.621 | 0.433 | 1.442
       4 | michigan-tech                   |   1 | 3.728 | 1.603 | 0.430 | 1.456
       5 | minnesota-state                 |   1 | 3.666 | 1.965 | 0.536 | 1.471
       6 | boston-university               |   1 | 3.620 | 1.759 | 0.486 | 1.449
       7 | nebraska-omaha                  |   1 | 3.467 | 1.835 | 0.529 | 1.511
       8 | minnesota                       |   1 | 3.462 | 1.776 | 0.513 | 1.465
       9 | miami                           |   1 | 3.442 | 1.703 | 0.495 | 1.526
      10 | bowling-green                   |   1 | 3.394 | 1.770 | 0.522 | 1.461
      11 | north-dakota                    |   1 | 3.133 | 1.649 | 0.526 | 1.460
      12 | st-lawrence                     |   1 | 3.113 | 1.679 | 0.539 | 1.460
      13 | denver                          |   1 | 3.031 | 1.685 | 0.556 | 1.503
      14 | umass-lowell                    |   1 | 2.968 | 1.836 | 0.619 | 1.455
      15 | penn-state                      |   1 | 2.887 | 1.741 | 0.603 | 1.455
      16 | merrimack                       |   1 | 2.865 | 1.452 | 0.507 | 1.446
      17 | ferris-state                    |   1 | 2.844 | 1.427 | 0.502 | 1.434
      18 | providence                      |   1 | 2.789 | 1.318 | 0.472 | 1.420
      19 | colgate                         |   1 | 2.743 | 1.478 | 0.539 | 1.445
      20 | michigan                        |   1 | 2.740 | 1.866 | 0.681 | 1.454
      21 | yale                            |   1 | 2.732 | 1.366 | 0.500 | 1.449
      22 | cornell                         |   1 | 2.720 | 1.242 | 0.456 | 1.470
      23 | robert-morris                   |   1 | 2.707 | 1.687 | 0.623 | 1.283
      24 | boston-college                  |   1 | 2.679 | 1.536 | 0.573 | 1.461
      25 | union                           |   1 | 2.642 | 1.699 | 0.643 | 1.430

  • #2
    Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

    O.K.

    I'll bite.

    Just what the heck are we looking at here?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

      Originally posted by Red Cows View Post
      O.K.

      I'll bite.

      Just what the heck are we looking at here?
      looks like a Poisson random effects model of goal data estimated under frequentist techniques.

      ---

      octonion has never said this but I've come to learn that he works in statistics for professional sports.

      edit: I've toyed with doing roughly the same under Bayes paradigm... just been too lazy and I don't want to do it without a season simulator. That and I'd have to custom write the software which is... annoying.
      Last edited by Patman; 12-18-2014, 08:59 PM.
      BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

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      • #4
        Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

        This makes no sense to a normal observer.
        "My greatest achievement."
        Dirty on getting me suspended from USCHO.

        I'm not an alcoholic! I'm an independent beer taster for Anheuser Busch.

        Happy~Smelling like a warm turd sandwich since 11/15/07.

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        • #5
          Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

          Originally posted by darker98 View Post
          This makes no sense to a normal observer.
          Kinda my observation as well.

          This bears little semblance to Pairwise, KRACH, the USCHO poll, or ESPN's poll.

          I concede that those 4 things bear little semblance to each other right now, either (other than Pairwise and KRACH).

          I note that octonion's rep went from green to red since my original post above.

          I'll reserve further judgement until the poster explains what we are looking at and the derivation of it.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

            It's the only system that has gotten Harvard right.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Tater View Post
              It's the only system that has gotten Harvard right.
              ..or least their average gpa ;-)
              GO NU HOCKEY
              Always bullish on the future.
              We don't always win Hockey East or the Beanpot (#trilogy).. but when we do.. we are the Champions

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                This can't be correct. Union is #26, not #25.
                sigpic

                Let's Go 'Tute!

                Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                2012 Poser Of The Year

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                • #9
                  Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                  Despite the mistakes, it appears to me this is a regression analysis that uses one of two methods to account for the randomness of some results.But i'm not a mathematician like ralph is.
                  MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                  It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                    Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                    Despite the mistakes, it appears to me this is a regression analysis that uses one of two methods to account for the randomness of some results.But i'm not a mathematician like ralph is.
                    I am sure that Patman knows a lot more about this than I do.
                    sigpic

                    Let's Go 'Tute!

                    Maxed out at 2,147,483,647 at 10:00 AM EDT 9/17/07.

                    2012 Poser Of The Year

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                      UMD right up the top in all the rankings, makes sense to me
                      I wanna go fast!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                        Originally posted by Ralph Baer View Post
                        I am sure that Patman knows a lot more about this than I do.
                        yeah, I didn't see anything ostensibly wrong in the code. On principle I'd be worried about whether the necessary linear restriction is in the model for all team related terms. Team effects are only observed relative to other teams and thus is sucked out by the intercept term.
                        BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                        Jerseys I would like to have:
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                        AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                        UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                        Army Black Knight logo jersey


                        NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

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                        • #13
                          Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                          Originally posted by Tater View Post
                          It's the only system that has gotten Harvard right.
                          IMO, I tend to go with score-based models because it does attempt to capture the nature of the game itself... whatever imperfection it may be. The difference in people's opinions tends to be the question or whether teams can will themselves to win games versus winning games coming as a process of being trained to score.

                          Clearly the players are not emotionless automatons so there is certainly give in the latter... however I think that coaches in the modern era have come to the conclusion that what they do is a process and that the game itself is statement of that process, albeit an imperfect statement.

                          They aren't going to express it in formulae like us nerds may but the mindset is similar.
                          BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                          Jerseys I would like to have:
                          Skating Friar Jersey
                          AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                          UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                          Army Black Knight logo jersey


                          NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                            Originally posted by Patman View Post
                            IMO, I tend to go with score-based models because it does attempt to capture the nature of the game itself... whatever imperfection it may be. The difference in people's opinions tends to be the question or whether teams can will themselves to win games versus winning games coming as a process of being trained to score.

                            Clearly the players are not emotionless automatons so there is certainly give in the latter... however I think that coaches in the modern era have come to the conclusion that what they do is a process and that the game itself is statement of that process, albeit an imperfect statement.

                            They aren't going to express it in formulae like us nerds may but the mindset is similar.
                            Might be, I wonder if you think this is strictly a ranking system based on past history, or is it a predictive model,( if a regression analysis can be considered such), and second, is it any more meaningful than Krach is.

                            And third, is the poster a Harvard Guy? Since I tend to ascribe ulterior motives to things like this.
                            Last edited by manurespreader; 12-20-2014, 02:16 PM.
                            MTU: Three time NCAA champions.

                            It never get's easier, you just go faster. -Greg Lemond

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Latest D1 Power Rankings

                              Originally posted by manurespreader View Post
                              Might be, I wonder if you think this is strictly a ranking system based on past history, or is it a predictive model,( if a regression analysis can be considered such), and second, is it any more meaningful than Kratch is.

                              And third, is the poster a Harvard Guy? Since I tend to ascribe ulterior motives to things like this.
                              I don't believe so... the quickest way to see Harvard ranked that high is legit is to look at Robin Locke's results (Robin is a professor at St. Lawrence). His model uses score data at the end of regulation less any ENG scored.

                              In that one Harvard is 6th.

                              As a prediction method... and yes it is... it can be more meaningful than KRACH. While there is an appeal of probabilistic notions in KRACH the fact they have to deal with ties makes it problematic and thus is better viewed from the heuristic standpoint.

                              edit: however, KRACH applied to "non-tie" sports can be viewed as predictive in nature.

                              ---

                              I don't know if he's a "harvard guy" though I believe it took another Harvard guy to tell me who he is. I know of one his employers but I feel it is not warranted to divulge this information though I believe he is no longer in their employ. I have met "octonion" before but that was before he posted here as "octonion".

                              edit: i only found out who he was at the Pittsburgh frozen four
                              Last edited by Patman; 12-19-2014, 05:06 PM.
                              BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                              Jerseys I would like to have:
                              Skating Friar Jersey
                              AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                              UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                              Army Black Knight logo jersey


                              NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                              Comment

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