Lies, **** Lies and Statistics

[polarbearfan]

Since I don't get to see many games out side of the state of Maine, I spend some time looking at the DIII Statistics page to see where other teams match up. I'm well aware that stats don't tell the whole story, strength of schedule plays a big part in stats and that at this point in the season, the sample size is small but I figured I'd share some of my observations through this past weekend.

- Statistically speaking, the top 5 goaltenders in the country are, in no particular order: Murray (Babson), Fenkell (Bowdoin), Green (UW-EC), Kujava (SNC) and Buitenhuis (Hamilton).
-Of those, only Murray plays the strong majority of his teams minutes.
-Of the teams those 5 play for, their team defense's rank 1 (Babson), 2 (SNC), 4 (Bowdoin), 8 (Hamilton) and 18 (UW-EC) nationally.
-UW-RF, Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, and Trinity are all ranked in the top 15 but do not have a goalie in the top 25 nationally in GAA.

-The top 11 teams in team offense are all ranked.
-Three (St. Thomas, Suffolk and Hamilton) of the top 8 teams in team defense are unranked.
-Babson, SNC, Norwich, Bowdoin and UW-RF are all ranked in the top 10 for both team defense and team offense.
-Mass Boston is the only undefeated team not listed above (1st in team offense but T18th in team defense)
-Cortland boasts the top two scorers in the country (Zappia and Broderick) each with 9 goals in 10 games but Cortland ranks 21st in team offense nationally.

-Bowdoin has taken the fewest penalties in the country yet is tied for most shorthanded goals in the country with their penalty kill is scoring at a 13% clip.
-17 teams' power play is scoring at less than a 13% clip including Plattsburgh, Concordia, UW-EC and St. John's.
-SNC and Williams are the only two teams in the top 10 nationally on the power play and penalty kill.

I take an in depth look once in a while and I'll continue to post my observations here just in case there are any other stat junkies out there!

[Old Rook NU'66]

Re: Lies, **** Lies and Statistics

Since I don't get to see many games out side of the state of Maine, I spend some time looking at the DIII Statistics page to see where other teams match up. I'm well aware that stats don't tell the whole story, strength of schedule plays a big part in stats and that at this point in the season, the sample size is small but I figured I'd share some of my observations through this past weekend.

As a fellow Mainer I agree with you that the DIII stats help one survive our long winters. I must say, however, that the long arm of technology allows me to watch more DIII hockey than ever and beyond our Norwich Cadets.

Your introductory disclaimer about the impact of an early season with few tests—are spot on--in terms of forecasting the future. I do not take NU’s record or stats too much to heart until I have seen them play through the entire first round of games within the ECAC-E. In fact, until I see NU get by Babson and UMass-Boston this year—the Cadet’s current #2 USCHOL poll ranking or our place at the top of the heap in the ECAC-E is nice…but meaningless. The only statistic that seems to be consistent with the past is the amount of time UMass Boston spends in the penalty box. Every year it is the same—and so far this year they are close to losing a player for an entire period in every game they play. Penalty time is something I watch closely. Look at that stat and you will see that Bowdoin and NU “get it”--as they realize its tough to score a man short. UMass Boston’s aggressiveness can only take them so far until they run into a team with real discipline but can easily match their talent on offense or defense.

As for the best goalie? I saw Jamie Murray of Babson emerge last year—and cannot wait until he graduates as he has all the tools to be a gold standard. But to be honest, even at goal… it is still too early to crown a king—that will come as the season matures.

I do miss my annual visits to Brunswick for those great games between NU and Bowdoin. First time was 52 years ago over in Northfield (Cadets 5 Polar Bears 3). And I actually believed when the NESCAC and ECAC-E gave up the interlock—that the ECAC-E would suffer the most. I am not sure that tracks now—as Babson and UMass Boston have become dangerous and consistent contenders—regardless of whom they play. This year St. Michaels and St. Anselm’s have become far more competitive. Castleton seems to have lost a step this year but they have the fan support for a superb program. Even UNE despite their record is an aggressive, well-coached bunch, which plays tough and challenges everyone for the full sixty minutes.