Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

I can't say I'm very surprised with tonight's result. It didn't sting as badly as last weekend, because it doesn't count as an NCAA game, and I enjoy seeing the U-18 team play (particularly Kunin and Opilka, as well as the wunderkind Auston Matthews). It's okay - I decided a few weeks ago that nothing matters until after the holiday break this season (both in terms of crowds and on-ice stuff).

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Because the top programs get their freshman to perform right away... Not just when they are juniors and seniors.

Plus other teams have "unexpected" departures and they don't seem to be so affected by it. At least they don't use it as a constant excuse.

So it's come full circle in my head now,whatever system he uses takes too crappin long to figure out and execute properly. Let's see some stats freshman scoring stats to prove this out.

What *might* be unique to Wisconsin is the # of players who really aren't considered blue chippah's who leave early. I'm talking Brendan Woods, Matt Auffrey types etc

There is quite a list of these players when you look at the cool chart WiscoMcB came up with. Like Ford ,why leave UW and loose that great education? I think Eaves' personality is an issue, Geoffrion himself said he's hard to play for. In his defense, I have to imagine at some point most college coaches are hard to play for. Maybe Eaves is all bad cop and never good cop. Or it could be the school itself, a kid think's he's college material, signs up, gets to the UW and realizes this school thing isn't for me afterall and bolts.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Thanks for doing all the work on this.

A few observations...on your last point....statistically wouldn't the largest quantity of departures occur from the largest class? If a certain percentage of kids are always falling though the cracks for whatever reasons....pros, academics, girlfriend misunderstandings (Thurber), ect...having 22 would have been upperclassmen (plus the 2 handfuls we still actually have this year) would have been an unmanageable quantity on a roster anyways.

Thanks for mentioning Thurber, somehow missed him and it makes 23 of 29 from the now Jr. and Sr. Classes.

Yes, statistically it would. But it hasn't happened that way and what we have is really skewed numbers. This year's classes and their previous departure numbers are Fr:3 (the numerically largest class over time); Soph: 3; Jr: 13 (the numerically smallest class over time); Sr: 10.

Those facts don't suggest there would/should be 23 upperclassmen now, but rather if departures were more balanced, it follows that classes would naturally be more balanced.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

What *might* be unique to Wisconsin is the # of players who really aren't considered blue chippah's who leave early. I'm talking Brendan Woods, Matt Auffrey types etc

I'm curious how much Eaves' personality has to do with players leaving. Just sayin'.

I think these posts bring up a good points in regards to how Eaves is judged. Along with how recruiting these particular kids is viewed. Some good kids that left the program early, did so in part because of available playing time and they hurt balance a lot. Were they mistakes to recruit, or not?

I also think in comparing recruiting and departure issues to other schools you have to be a bit careful. See Hammy's post earlier that I agree 1000% with. MN, MI, and BC, BU have considerable built-in advantages in getting and keeping predisposed talent, along with it seems, player willingness to wait their turn to play.

Wisco has been, and probably will continue for a good while at least, to be an outsider in that regard. More in line with UND and DU perhaps. Of course it's a lot harder to get into UW than UND, so there's another limit, but setting that aside, UND is a better program to compare with. How have they done it? One thing that stands out to me is at least one third of their roster is consistently Canadians, something UW and Eaves got away from for awhile, and now with Shuey, has returned to a bit more. I think that much, at least, bodes well.

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Let's see some stats freshman scoring stats to prove this out.

I don't know how relevant it is, but somewhere much earlier in this thread I did write a post about how in the previous 7 years there have been 16 freshman (of 350 players) on the top 50 scoring list at year end. It takes around 35-37 pts. In that time, MN has had one player, Rau, and UND has had one player, Grimaldi, in that group. Presumably without the 10 game suspension, UW would have had one player as well, Kerdiles. All three obviously played with high end upperclassmen talent on their lines.

[Hammy]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Maybe Eaves is all bad cop and never good cop.

I've generally found that the best situations are the ones in which the assistants are the player sounding board. Particularly if the players feel the assistants are approachable and they respect them. But you have to have the right guys in those roles for that to work. It didn't work with John Hill, it definitely works with guys like Guentzel and Potulny.

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

You make several points which I'd like to get to as time permits, for now I'll just offer this about this point. Here are the 1st and 2nd round gofer picks since '06 and how long they stayed in school: (not in order)

Brady Skjei (1st) in 3rd year
Aaron Ness (2nd) 3yrs
Nico Sacchetti (2nd) 4Yrs.
Nick Leddy (1st) 1yr
Zach Budish (2nd) 4Yrs
Jordan Schroeder (1st) 2 yr
Nick Bjugstad (1st) 3 yrs
Mark Alt (2nd) 3yrs
Justin Holl (2nd) 4 yrs
Patrick White (1st) 4yrs
Jim O'Brien (1st) 1 yr
Mike Hoeffel (2nd)4 yrs
Erik Johnson (1st) 1 yr
Phil Kessel (1st) 1 yr
Kyle Okposo (1st)2 yrs
David Fischer (1st)4 yrs

As you can see, 10/16 stayed at least 3, and 5 of those stayed 4 years.

Kessel, Johnson, Obrien all played 1yr. (which coincidentally or not, preceded a 3 yr downturn for the goofs.) Without commenting whether Kerdiles should have stayed or gone, he's very good, but not necessarily Kessel/ Erik Johnson good at this point.

I said FORWARD in the context of Kerdiles "shocking" departure no one could ever plan on having happen. Way to cherry pick Minnesota and conveniently include 7 dmen in your analysis. If you exclude total and complete busts like Pat White (career best year was NINE goals) and Sacchetti (whos' 4 year career total of 33 points equaled Kerdiles freshman year where he missed 10 games to a NCAA suspension). You realize neither of those guy have played an ounce of hockey professionally since leaving the U which might be a telling sign that neither had a viable option to "go pro"? Added in a semi-busts like Hoeffel and explain to me which FORWARD drafted in the first 2 rounds of the draft stayed at Minnesota beyond 2 years where there was any much less massive joy in gopherville? Bjugstad, Budish, and who else?

Instead of cherry picking Minnesota (who had a handful of kids with some individual circumstances/flatout busts), lets look at all Forwards drafted in the first 2 rounds that went to college from '07-'10 and see how long they stuck around:

JVR (2)
Turris (1)
Pacioretty (1)
White (4)
Obrein (1)
Sweatt (4)
Palushaj (2)
Sacchetti (4)
Galiardi (1)
Hoeffel (4)
Wilson (2)
Colborne (2)
Dalpe (2)
Stepan (2)
Kristo (4)
Hayes (3)
Kreider (3)
Schroeder (2)
Palmieri (1)
Brown (3)
Chiasson (3)
Budish (4)
Shore (3)
Lynch (4)
Schwartz (2)
Bjugstad (3)
Bennett (2)
Sheahan (3)
Hayes (4)
Pitlich (1)
Brickley (4)
Zucher (2)
Coyle (2)
Nelson (2)

Out of that list, which one's that stuck around for a third year or more were point a game guy as frosh and sophs? Which one's weren't total complete busts with no real options of pro hockey beyond college? Which one's weren't big bodied power forward types who typically need or at the least could use an extra year (like dmen) to develop? For the grand finale....which one's that were actually good and had realistic options to leave (like pointish a game guys) came back for a third or 4th year for a team that wasn't a prohibitive favorite to make the F4 and was a title contender?

Kerdlies not seeing a third year of college was about as surprising as the sun rising in the East every day. Hell after his frosh year, I would have been much less surprised to see him leave after one (except for the Ducks having a pretty deep pool of forward prospects) then to see him back for a third (which wasn't happening barring a serious injury).

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

I'm curious how much Eaves' personality has to do with players leaving. Just sayin'.

Same question go for Bill Butters?

'10-'13 were pretty disastrous for this year's team.

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

I also think in comparing recruiting and departure issues to other schools you have to be a bit careful. See Hammy's post earlier that I agree 1000% with. MN, MI, and BC, BU have considerable built-in advantages in getting and keeping predisposed talent, along with it seems, player willingness to wait their turn to play.

When comparing to more talent rich/fertile local recruiting bases, the recent string of misses from Eaves and company on the local talent is more and more exasperating. Kessel, Lapoint, Schmaltz brothers, Butcher....I know there are more but looking will only bring back painful memories. Sure Kessel hated Skille and could never play on the same team, and Schmaltz had family ties to ND, and Lapoint had a brother at ND, and Butcher was buddies with an assistant coach that he never end up playing for and their is always an excuse why some of the best local talent in recent years has not played for UW...excuses that could never be the fault of Eaves.

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Same question go for Bill Butters?

'10-'13 were pretty disastrous for this year's team.

And who pulled Butters out of the psyche ward or nursing home and hired him?

[mnstate0fhockey]

I don't know how relevant it is, but somewhere much earlier in this thread I did write a post about how in the previous 7 years there have been 16 freshman (of 350 players) on the top 50 scoring list at year end. It takes around 35-37 pts. In that time, MN has had one player, Rau, and UND has had one player, Grimaldi, in that group. Presumably without the 10 game suspension, UW would have had one player as well, Kerdiles. All three obviously played with high end upperclassmen talent on their lines.

Love how you make it sound like freshmen need to be in the Top 50 in scoring to be productive. Gopher freshmen accounted for nearly 50% of the team's goals this past season and I believe (would have to look this up) had three freshmen with double-digit goals last year (Fasching, Kloos, Cammarata). No way the Gophers win the conference or get as far if that freshmen class didn't contribute as much as they did.

And yes, having guys like Rau and Condon on their lines did help in their transition, but I'd contend that it helps much more defensively than offensively. Most freshmen that put up 25-40 pts or put up double-digit goals in their freshmen season are dynamic offensive talents that create offense. Handling their defensive responsibilities is a much more difficult transition IMO.

[Greyeagle]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

And who pulled Butters out of the psyche ward or nursing home and hired him?

Butters coaching at UW.....nothing beats a successful covert operation.

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

Thanks for mentioning Thurber, somehow missed him and it makes 23 of 29 from the now Jr. and Sr. Classes.

.

No, Thurber would have been a senior last year and did the master class balancer a favor by getting into a misunderstanding with his lady friend allowing Eaves a chance to rebalance his roster a couple years earlier instead of having another roster spot that would have had to be filled this freshman class had he stayed.

[UCBadger]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

anyone remember when UW beat the U.S. Olympic team in the 80's? We're a hell of a far cry from seeing a team that good in Madison

Oh yes! My wife and I were there. Truly electric! Recently I heard Paul B. list the top 5 games played at the Dane. I was at, I think, 4 of them.

Here is another 4-1 score against the U-18 from last year played at my "other school."

So, please (someone) tell me some specifics on Eaves' "system." I am struggling to understand why he thinks you (Wisconsin, for crying out loud) can expect to be able to field a NCAA second round team only every 4 years.

[MadCityRich]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey: Episode XXXI: A New Hope

All i can say is ooof.

I found this article that Chuck wrote last February. I bet it's worse now than we all thought.


http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisc...-alarming-rate