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Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 09:12 AM
I just remembered that Brendan Woods was a part of this year's senior class.

In an effort to understand a little about how we ended up with 17 underclassmen skaters, I did a little chart tracking the Badger class sizes, the departures, Red shirts, and a few notes about goalies. The early departures are color coded to the class they left, the redshirts the classes they are going in to. Please feel free to point out any inaccuracies. I'll point out a few things myself about what I think about it all and some background on a few players in another post when I get a few minutes. It probably takes a little staring to get something out of it.





<a href="http://imgur.com/yXMFRrO"><img src="http://i.imgur.com/yXMFRrO.jpg" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

Chuck Schwartz
12-12-2014, 09:50 AM
Piggybacking on Wisko, here is the chart on just forwards that I had in a recent article.

<a href="http://tinypic.com?ref=2quspj8" target="_blank"><img src="http://i62.tinypic.com/2quspj8.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic"></a>

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 11:33 AM
Piggybacking on Wisko, here is the chart on just forwards that I had in a recent article.



I read that while I was compiling this, and it's good info. Because I couldn't quite get it all straight in my head I decided to go with all the skaters for a little broader picture.

A couple of comments on events leading to where we are:

1) Patrick Daly "Daly, a 6-0 and 180-pound defenseman, from Benilde-St. Margaret's High School. The Victoria, Minn., native was a finalist for the 2011 Minnesota Mr. Hockey award following his 40-point and plus-52 season that included 27 games on the blue line. A team co-captain as a senior, the left-handed shot posted 12 points in 10 games during an injury-shortened junior campaign. An all-conference selection as a sophomore in 2008-09, he has also skated two seasons in the Upper Midwest High School Elite League."

Daly, a NJ Devils Draft pick, was an elite skater and elite student with good size who projected very well for the Badgers. After his freshman year, he decided to transfer to St. Thomas, reportedly to focus more on academics and to play hockey there. He hasn't played college hockey since leaving the Badgers. (Would be a Senior)

2) Tyler Lapic - Tyler was listed as a Top 10 Minnesota High School League Player and the all time New Prague HS scoring record holder. He left after his Freshman year to join his brother at Gustavus Adolphus where he has been successful. At 6'2", 200#, he's a hard-nosed physical presence, and leader for the Gusties that can still put the puck in the net. (Would be a Senior)

3.) Jason Clark, a 3rd round Islanders pick stuck behind a big group of forwards surprised by signing a pro contract in late August before his Jr. year. While he would have been a senior last year, his late signing put Spencer Bell, a good kid who had already enrolled at UW after hanging up his skates onto the roster. After Bell was recruited over, it obviously shifted yet another roster spot down to the underclassman level this year. Clark's bounced back and forth between the AHL and ECHL since leaving. (Bell's spot would be a Junior)

4.) Jr. Mitch Thompson departs rather than be elevated, forcing Adam Miller into what is now the Jr Class, rather than that spot being in the So class. This is of lesser import really, just an observation and probably less of an effect than bringing in Bennett as a transfer, putting both top goalies in the same (now Sr.) class. But it's how 3 of 9 upperclassmen are all goalies.

5.) As noted by DC, Brendan Woods a 5th round pick by Carolina, and a (mostly) projected 4 year player, surprises by departing to the AHL after his So. season, pushing yet another spot to the lower classes and depriving Bucky of another strong Senior this year.

6.) There is always somebody saying that departures should be "planned for". Expected departures are planned for but it doesn't change the fact that that you are replacing an elite player that understands your system with an inexperienced player you have to start over with. Unexpected departures, especially Freshman and Sophomores, tend to lead you to either accelerating players, or bringing in players that you might not normally out of need, and again those departures are a lost investment.

6.) Kerdilles leaving marks 5 straight years of Sophomores departing to the pros. A huge difference from Junior departures IMO.

7.) Of the 28 Departures shown, note that 22 of them come from the classes that are Juniors and Seniors this year, which has shifted those roster spots downward.

Timothy A
12-12-2014, 12:45 PM
7.) Of the 28 Departures shown, note that 22 of them come from the classes that are Juniors and Seniors this year, which has shifted those roster spots downward.

That is just insane. How can we blame Eaves for this?

I also agree on accelerated players, it fills a spot, but it doesn't produce an impactful Fr. player. Maybe Hughes can have a huge 2nd half and break the trend.

markwojo
12-12-2014, 01:02 PM
I read that while I was compiling this, and it's good info. Because I couldn't quite get it all straight in my head I decided to go with all the skaters for a little broader picture.

A couple of comments on events leading to where we are:

1) Patrick Daly "Daly, a 6-0 and 180-pound defenseman, from Benilde-St. Margaret's High School. The Victoria, Minn., native was a finalist for the 2011 Minnesota Mr. Hockey award following his 40-point and plus-52 season that included 27 games on the blue line. A team co-captain as a senior, the left-handed shot posted 12 points in 10 games during an injury-shortened junior campaign. An all-conference selection as a sophomore in 2008-09, he has also skated two seasons in the Upper Midwest High School Elite League."

Daly, a NJ Devils Draft pick, was an elite skater and elite student with good size who projected very well for the Badgers. After his freshman year, he decided to transfer to St. Thomas, reportedly to focus more on academics and to play hockey there. He hasn't played college hockey since leaving the Badgers. (Would be a Senior)

2) Tyler Lapic - Tyler was listed as a Top 10 Minnesota High School League Player and the all time New Prague HS scoring record holder. He left after his Freshman year to join his brother at Gustavus Adolphus where he has been successful. At 6'2", 200#, he's a hard-nosed physical presence, and leader for the Gusties that can still put the puck in the net. (Would be a Senior)

3.) Jason Clark, a 3rd round Islanders pick stuck behind a big group of forwards surprised by signing a pro contract in late August before his Jr. year. While he would have been a senior last year, his late signing put Spencer Bell, a good kid who had already enrolled at UW after hanging up his skates onto the roster. After Bell was recruited over, it obviously shifted yet another roster spot down to the underclassman level this year. Clark's bounced back and forth between the AHL and ECHL since leaving. (Bell's spot would be a Junior)

4.) Jr. Mitch Thompson departs rather than be elevated, forcing Adam Miller into what is now the Jr Class, rather than that spot being in the So class. This is of lesser import really, just an observation and probably less of an effect than bringing in Bennett as a transfer, putting both top goalies in the same (now Sr.) class. But it's how 3 of 9 upperclassmen are all goalies.

5.) As noted by DC, Brendan Woods a 5th round pick by Carolina, and a (mostly) projected 4 year player, surprises by departing to the AHL after his So. season, pushing yet another spot to the lower classes and depriving Bucky of another strong Senior this year.

6.) There is always somebody saying that departures should be "planned for". Expected departures are planned for but it doesn't change the fact that that you are replacing an elite player that understands your system with an inexperienced player you have to start over with. Unexpected departures, especially Freshman and Sophomores, tend to lead you to either accelerating players, or bringing in players that you might not normally out of need, and again those departures are a lost investment.

6.) Kerdilles leaving marks 5 straight years of Sophomores departing to the pros. A huge difference from Junior departures IMO.

7.) Of the 28 Departures shown, note that 22 of them come from the classes that are Juniors and Seniors this year, which has shifted those roster spots downward.

Thanks for doing all the work on this.

A few observations...on your last point....statistically wouldn't the largest quantity of departures occur from the largest class? If a certain percentage of kids are always falling though the cracks for whatever reasons....pros, academics, girlfriend misunderstandings (Thurber), ect...having 22 would have been upperclassmen (plus the 2 handfuls we still actually have this year) would have been an unmanageable quantity on a roster anyways. To me the issue isn't that guys leave....they always have and always will (maybe even more in a society that has evolved into more instant gratification then prior generations)...it's how that has been managed which clearly has not been particularly well.

Kerdelies and his ilk (guys taken in the top 2 rounds of the NHL draft) rarely see a third year on a college campus). Guys like him that are a point a game type are not staying in college....they just don't unless you can sell a stacked team that is a title favorite which this Badger team isn't even remotely close to. You may get a first/2nd round drafted Dman to stick around 3 years, but rarely a forward. For every 1st/2nd round forward that sees a third year of college, I bet there are 5 or 6 if not more that leave. Those guys need a competitive challenge playing in the AHL, feel the pressure of their draft status that they should be moving on as their draft class peers often are, and also feel a pull from their draft rights holder not wanting to have a kid Schultz/Wheeler/Hayes them where they can use the 4 years out of high school loophole to become free agents and potentially lose a high draft pick for nothing more then a compensatory pick 30 picks lower then the original one you used.

For me, what is becoming telling when it comes to Eaves is that kids that should be predisposed to UW are bailing or never coming. Ford and (probably....unless he is the exception to a kid decommiting and actually still picking who he decommitted from in the end) Boesser being the most recent two. Guys like Reilly Smith and Zach Stepan when they have had relatives go and have a great deal of success at UW should not be ending up at other schools....they just shouldn't.

WiscTJK
12-12-2014, 01:26 PM
That is just insane. How can we blame Eaves for this?


Because the top programs get their freshman to perform right away... Not just when they are juniors and seniors.

Plus other teams have "unexpected" departures and they don't seem to be so affected by it. At least they don't use it as a constant excuse.

UWisco
12-12-2014, 01:28 PM
Because the top programs get their freshman to perform right away... Not just when they are juniors and seniors.

Plus other teams have "unexpected" departures and they don't seem to be so affected by it. At least they don't use it as a constant excuse.

Wisconsin is the hardest hit by early departures of any team.

WiscTJK
12-12-2014, 01:29 PM
Wisconsin is the hardest hit by early departures of any team.

Why? - maybe the coaching staff should look in the mirror.

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 02:02 PM
For every 1st/2nd round forward that sees a third year of college, I bet there are 5 or 6 if not more that leave.


You make several points which I'd like to get to as time permits, for now I'll just offer this about this point. Here are the 1st and 2nd round gofer picks since '06 and how long they stayed in school: (not in order)

Brady Skjei (1st) in 3rd year
Aaron Ness (2nd) 3yrs
Nico Sacchetti (2nd) 4Yrs.
Nick Leddy (1st) 1yr
Zach Budish (2nd) 4Yrs
Jordan Schroeder (1st) 2 yr
Nick Bjugstad (1st) 3 yrs
Mark Alt (2nd) 3yrs
Justin Holl (2nd) 4 yrs
Patrick White (1st) 4yrs
Jim O'Brien (1st) 1 yr
Mike Hoeffel (2nd)4 yrs
Erik Johnson (1st) 1 yr
Phil Kessel (1st) 1 yr
Kyle Okposo (1st)2 yrs
David Fischer (1st)4 yrs

As you can see, 10/16 stayed at least 3, and 5 of those stayed 4 years.

Kessel, Johnson, Obrien all played 1yr. (which coincidentally or not, preceded a 3 yr downturn for the goofs.) Without commenting whether Kerdiles should have stayed or gone, he's very good, but not necessarily Kessel/ Erik Johnson good at this point.

Bonin21
12-12-2014, 02:05 PM
We lost three to the NHL plus Budish and Alt before last year. Seems like you just need to reload better. :)

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 02:27 PM
Because the top programs get their freshman to perform right away... Not just when they are juniors and seniors.

Plus other teams have "unexpected" departures and they don't seem to be so affected by it. At least they don't use it as a constant excuse.

The other teams thing is largely a fallacy. There are very few freshman in NCAA hockey that perform at the high end on top lines unless they are playing with an experienced and talented player to make things go. Even Eichel, who is a real exception and could do much anyway, is playing with Jr. Danny O' Regan, a WJ team veteran, and U-18 World champion. Or for example gopher frosh had Rau, who is not on the previous list because he's only a third round pick playing in his 4th yr.

WiscTJK
12-12-2014, 02:42 PM
The other teams thing is largely a fallacy. There are very few freshman in NCAA hockey that perform at the high end on top lines unless they are playing with an experienced and talented player to make things go. Even Eichel, who is a real exception and could do much anyway, is playing with Jr. Danny O' Regan, a WJ team veteran, and U-18 World champion. Or for example gopher frosh had Rau, who is not on the previous list because he's only a third round pick playing in his 4th yr.

OK, let's say your are right. Than it is critical for the coach to even out the classes to ensure an NCAA tournament caliber team almost every year. Whatever the reason, the up and down roller coaster of results every 3-4 years is unacceptable for Wisconsin hockey. Other coaches manage the situation just fine.

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 03:14 PM
OK, let's say your are right. Than it is critical for the coach to even out the classes to ensure an NCAA tournament caliber team almost every year. Whatever the reason, the up and down roller coaster of results every 3-4 years is unacceptable for Wisconsin hockey. Other coaches manage the situation just fine.

Yes. Let us say I am right, not only because I like the sound of it, but because I am. :p

And yes, it is critical to even out classes, which is exactly what I and most others have been saying all along. Not this 13 freshman and two checking Sr.s would produce better at MN or UND nonsense. The really relevant question then is: How is that done, and/or why hasn't it been done here? The answer to that isn't "nobody else has had a problem with it." It's something more specific to the Badger's situation that you have to sort through if you want to know. Or you can just generalize, I guess.

Folks might be surprised, but I do think there are specific things that Eaves and co. are at fault for.

UWisco
12-12-2014, 03:15 PM
Why is Keegan Ford still on the roster on the schools website? For some reason this irks me.

Gurtholfin
12-12-2014, 03:19 PM
Folks might be surprised, but I do think there are specific things that Eaves and co. are at fault for.


Like having this become a cycle that we seem to be doomed to repeat for all of eternity?


Are you our new Baghdad Bob?

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 03:28 PM
Are you our new Baghdad Bob?

Nope. I just like to look deeper into things.

Give you an example: Awhile back I made some money on a company who's stock dipped on news that a container ship carrying their inbound products sunk. One full container ship can carry a hell of a lot of stuff. Big blow to the Company right? Well to make it a lot shorter, it turns out that it was pretty darn important to actually know specifically what was in the containers.

Gurtholfin
12-12-2014, 03:41 PM
Look as deeply as you'd like. Certainly no one can accuse you of being reactionary. You do spend a lot of time defending Eaves though and looking for reasons (excuses) for why things are the way they are.


My question is how long does Eaves get? This is the start of his 4th cycle (?) of unbalanced classes.

I think we've seen enough. Seems that many ticket buyers agree with me.

One cycle, maybe two is understandable. To have this continuing shows that he doesn't know how to correct the situation.


He's had enough of a chance. The state of the program is deplorable. Don't care about excuses anymore.

Time for a new direction.

Wisko McBadgerton
12-12-2014, 03:49 PM
Look as deeply as you'd like. Certainly no one can accuse you of being reactionary.

My question though is how long does Eaves get? This is the start of his 4th cycle (at least) of unbalanced classes.

I think we've seen enough. Seems that many ticket buyers agree with me.

One cycle, maybe two is understandable. To have this continuing shows that he doesn't know how to correct the situation.


He's had enough of a chance. The state of the program is deplorable. Don't care about excuses anymore.

Time for a new direction.
Not saying that's an unfair position to take.

I think part of how one might look at Eaves culpability in not fixing the unbalanced classes, is related to if you would view Keegan Ford as a recruiting miss or not.

Hammy
12-12-2014, 04:14 PM
You make several points which I'd like to get to as time permits, for now I'll just offer this about this point. Here are the 1st and 2nd round gofer picks since '06 and how long they stayed in school: (not in order)

Brady Skjei (1st) in 3rd year
Aaron Ness (2nd) 3yrs
Nico Sacchetti (2nd) 4Yrs.
Nick Leddy (1st) 1yr
Zach Budish (2nd) 4Yrs
Jordan Schroeder (1st) 2 yr
Nick Bjugstad (1st) 3 yrs
Mark Alt (2nd) 3yrs
Justin Holl (2nd) 4 yrs
Patrick White (1st) 4yrs
Jim O'Brien (1st) 1 yr
Mike Hoeffel (2nd)4 yrs
Erik Johnson (1st) 1 yr
Phil Kessel (1st) 1 yr
Kyle Okposo (1st)2 yrs
David Fischer (1st)4 yrs

As you can see, 10/16 stayed at least 3, and 5 of those stayed 4 years.

I don't know that comparing to the Gophers is entirely fair. I don't mean this in a smug way either.

The reality is that many of the players that come to the U grew up in its shadow. In particular, kids in the Twin Cities. I can't tell you how many times over the years that I have had players that commit to the Gophers tell me how they went to games at Mariucci quite often growing up. There is a sense of connection to the program because of it. They grew up with it. This plants a seed in their head and once they get there, they are (often times) not in any hurry to leave. Schools that rely more on talent that develops at distant locales (usually because their local talent base isn't as strong/deep) don't have that same situation.

(PS - A few of the names above stayed longer than many had hoped... simply because they didn't develop to the level that their draft position projected).

burd
12-12-2014, 04:47 PM
I don't know that comparing to the Gophers is entirely fair. I don't mean this in a smug way either.

The reality is that many of the players that come to the U grew up in its shadow. In particular, kids in the Twin Cities. I can't tell you how many times over the years that I have had players that commit to the Gophers tell me how they went to games at Mariucci quite often growing up. There is a sense of connection to the program because of it. They grew up with it. This plants a seed in their head and once they get there, they are (often times) not in any hurry to leave. Schools that rely more on talent that develops at distant locales (usually because their local talent base isn't as strong/deep) don't have that same situation.

(PS - A few of the names above stayed longer than many had hoped... simply because they didn't develop to the level that their draft position projected).

What was Rau's draft status?

Never mind--I see he went in the 3rd Boy, you keep many third rounders like that for 4, you will win a lot of hockey games.