WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Hey math geeks, explain the par to me. Sioux sports says that Michigan tech's rpi ignores the 4 wins over UAA and UAH but the 2 lowest ranked teams they've swept are UAH and LSSU. So why doesn't it exclude the wins over LSSU?

[uaafanblog]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Sioux sports says ...

See the problem?

Also, when Baby_Huey first came to Anchorage Alaska Hockey bought him a round. He sat in the corner all night long petulantly while the rest of the UAA/MTU fan contingent enjoyed themselves thoroughly. He's was a moody one.

[beaverhockeyfan]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Updated

The WCHA is 26-25-7. Still barely above 50%.

Alabama-Huntsville (1-4-3):
@Colorado College (2) Loss 3-2, Loss 4-3
@Northern Michigan (2) Tie 1-1, Loss 4-1
@Air Force (2) Win 4-2, Tie 3-3
@Nebraska-Omaha (2) Loss 2-1, Tie 3-3

Alaska (5-1-0):
Wisconsin (1) Win 1-0
Maine (1) Win 5-2
Air Force (1) Win 4-3
Penn State (1) Win 4-3
@Western Michigan (2) Win 1-0, Loss 4-2

Alaska Anchorage (3-1-2):
Maine (1) Win 3-1
Wisconsin (1) Win 4-2
Penn State (1) Tie 3-3
Air Force (1) Win 4-1
@Maine (2) Loss 3-1, Tie 3-3

Bemidji State:
North Dakota home and home Win in Grand Forks 5-1, loss in Bemidji 2-1
@Minnesota (2) Loss 5-2, Loss 5-3
St. Cloud (2) Loss 6-3, Win 4-1
North Star Cup (Duluth, Minnesota/Mankato)

Bowling Green:
Miami home and home Win in Bowling Green 3-2, loss in Oxford 3-2
@Clarkson (2) Tie 2-2, Win 5-4
Ohio State home and home Loss 3-2 in Bowling Green, win 3-2 in Columbus
Robert Morris home and home

Ferris State (3-5-1):
Michigan (1) Win 4-3
@St. Lawrence (2) Win 3-2 (OT), Loss 2-0
@Michigan State (2) Win 1-0, Loss 4-1
@Wisconsin (2) Tie 1-1, Loss 5-3
GLI (2) Loss to Michigan State 2-0, Loss to Michigan Tech 4-2

Lake Superior State (1-6-1):
@Robert Morris (2) Loss 3-1, Loss 3-0
@Notre Dame (2) Loss 5-3, Loss 5-1
@North Dakota (2) Loss 7-4, Loss 3-1
Florida Classic (2) Tie Cornell 0-0, Win over Notre Dame 2-1

MSU-Mankato:
@Nebraska-Omaha (2) Loss 5-3, Win 4-2
Duluth home and home Win 5-4 (OT) in Duluth, Loss 6-2 in Mankato
Princeton (2) Win 5-0, Cancelled due to Flu
North Star (Minnesota, Bemidji/Duluth)

Michigan Tech:
Michigan (2) Win 4-1, Win 6-1
Duluth (2) Loss 3-1, Win 4-3
GLI (2) Loss to Michigan 2-1, Win over Ferris State 4-2
@Wisconsin (2)

Northern Michigan:
Wisconsin at Green Bay (2) Win 2-0, Win 4-1
Alabama-Huntsville (2) Tie 1-1, Win 4-1
@Penn State (2)
@Duluth (2)

[huskyfan]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Special thanks to LSSU on saving face for the WCHA this weekend with a tie and win to earn them a tourney title in Florida this weekend and a win over hockey east!

Good for them!!!

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

See the problem?

hey smartass, answer the question or shut up. Sioux Sports has the same RPI value as USCHO and CHN so it isn't the source. Sioux Sports is the only one that provides footnotes that list which games are listed as excluded due to negative effects of victories to their RPI.

[aparch]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Hey math geeks, explain the par to me. Sioux sports says that Michigan tech's rpi ignores the 4 wins over UAA and UAH but the 2 lowest ranked teams they've swept are UAH and LSSU. So why doesn't it exclude the wins over LSSU?

My (un)educated guess is that LSSU's opponents record is better than UAA and UAH's opponents records, making the overall numbers less weak against MTU than UAA or UAH.

I can't remember, but does Sioux Sports still show the breakdown of how many comparisons each school has won/lost?

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

My (un)educated guess is that LSSU's opponents record is better than UAA and UAH's opponents records, making the overall numbers less weak against MTU than UAA or UAH.

I can't remember, but does Sioux Sports still show the breakdown of how many comparisons each school has won/lost?

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankin...s.php?teamid=4

[stuckinwi]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

My (un)educated guess is that LSSU's opponents record is better than UAA and UAH's opponents records, making the overall numbers less weak against MTU than UAA or UAH.

I can't remember, but does Sioux Sports still show the breakdown of how many comparisons each school has won/lost?

Does it take into account at all when in the season the game took place?

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

My (un)educated guess is that LSSU's opponents record is better than UAA and UAH's opponents records, making the overall numbers less weak against MTU than UAA or UAH.

I can't remember, but does Sioux Sports still show the breakdown of how many comparisons each school has won/lost?

It looks like I could be wrong, BU's RPI excludes its first 2 games of the season. Im also quite confused at what the current RPI calculation is.

[MaizeRage]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

My (un)educated guess is that LSSU's opponents record is better than UAA and UAH's opponents records, making the overall numbers less weak against MTU than UAA or UAH.

Correct. LSSU's Opp% is pretty good, which accounts for the difference.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

Correct. LSSU's Opp% is pretty good, which accounts for the difference.

So trying to recreate the info SiouxSports.com why can't you do an average of the Completed Contests "Win% vs others" column to get the unadjusted "Opp Win %" from the top? I get 0.5175 vs the 0.5073 listed. Having a hard time confirming whether LSSU games should be excluded if I can't even get over this first hump.

[aparch]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

As far as I know from tinkering with the PWR calculations last year and my experiences with the PWR/RPI for the last 13 years is: it doesn't matter when the teams played each other, the RPI is a pure "numbers" calculation. And thus being a pure "numbers" calculation with weighted bonuses, the LSSU wins improve Tech's RPI where UAA and UAH's wins decrease their RPI.

Up until a few weeks ago, NMU's win against UAH was excluded. But our sweep of Wisconsin has never been excluded.

It's numbers. Sioux Sports isn't out to screw Tech. USCHO's RPI calculation isn't screwing Tech. The NCAA didn't have it out for Tech when the fine tuning of the win bonuses were tweaked for the 2013-14 season. And I'd even go so far as to say that come 11pm on March 21st, the wins against UAA and UAH will help their RPI and this won't be an issue.


*edit* Christ, I'm the one defending the da** PWR/RPI and my team has been on the ass end of a few number calculations in the last decade and a half. 2003 NCAA tournament is what really irks me where Mankato and St. Cloud State got in but NMU didn't still p*sses me off.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

As far as I know from tinkering with the PWR calculations last year and my experiences with the PWR/RPI for the last 13 years is: it doesn't matter when the teams played each other, the RPI is a pure "numbers" calculation. And thus being a pure "numbers" calculation with weighted bonuses, the LSSU wins improve Tech's RPI where UAA and UAH's wins decrease their RPI.

Up until a few weeks ago, NMU's win against UAH was excluded. But our sweep of Wisconsin has never been excluded.

It's numbers. Sioux Sports isn't out to screw Tech. USCHO's RPI calculation isn't screwing Tech. The NCAA didn't have it out for Tech when the fine tuning of the win bonuses were tweaked for the 2013-14 season. And I'd even go so far as to say that come 11pm on March 21st, the wins against UAA and UAH will help their RPI and this won't be an issue.


*edit* Christ, I'm the one defending the da** PWR/RPI and my team has been on the ass end of a few number calculations in the last decade and a half. 2003 NCAA tournament is what really irks me where Mankato and St. Cloud State got in but NMU didn't still p*sses me off.

I never said that, after doing more research into other teams, I noticed BU had its first 2 games excluded. I assume everything is fine, but now I'm to the point of wanting to understand how to calculate to see what effect excluding a win over LSSU has. The fact that my previous understanding and SiouxSports details doesn't allow me to calculate it myself is frustrating. I can't even get close to their numbers for Opp W% or Opp Opp W%.

My initial thought was that they start at the beginning and add each game and see if it positively or negatively impacts the RPI and exclude the negatives, after further review its obvious they go through and remove each game and see what effect it has.

[aparch]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

I never said that, after doing more research into other teams, I noticed BU had its first 2 games excluded. I assume everything is fine, but now I'm to the point of wanting to understand how to calculate to see what effect excluding a win over LSSU has. The fact that my previous understanding and SiouxSports details doesn't allow me to calculate it myself is frustrating. I can't even get close to their numbers for Opp W% or Opp Opp W%.

My initial thought was that they start at the beginning and add each game and see if it positively or negatively impacts the RPI and exclude the negatives, after further review its obvious they go through and remove each game and see what effect it has.

Flagdude used to have a simulator for the PWR at wa2aea.com. It looks like he has issues with his website right now. I have it saved to a jump drive somewhere. I'll look for it and try to re-post it this weekend. You *should* be able to tinker with it, eliminate the LSSU games, and run the RPI simulation.

[aparch]

Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important

I never said that, ...

Hey guess what guys, I think MTU is getting screwed in the PWR ranking simply because they played LSSU first.
Depending on rounding errors from the info provided by http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankin...s.php?teamid=4
MTU's RPI should be somewhere around 0.0179 points higher when listing an RPI as 0.####, not ##.## as SiouxSports.com does on their PWR page.
Michigan Tech would be likely around 4th in the PWR instead of 6th. Not sure how those changes adjust Quality Win Bonuses or anything else...

Anyway, here's the link to Flagdude's RPI simulator:

http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCAARPIPWR.zip
Here's a sample Excel file that shows the format you need for it to build upon:
http://www.nmubaseball.net/uscho/NCA...ey20131208.csv

I've tinkered with it for NCAA, and used it to see what it would do for the AHL.


*edit* I haven't gotten down to the nuts and bolts of the simulation program, so the weighted bonuses may not be calculated right.