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  • Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

    The 2014-2015 Pairwise Predictor is LIVE

    NEW! Click the link below to access the Pairwise Predictor online:

    http://www.bcinterruption.com/2014/1...rwisePredictor

    -------------------

    I'm basically going to use this thread as my own personal excel spreadsheet playground. The posters poll will go here each week along with other fun things I'm doing using the spreadsheet I built last year to calculate the Pairwise.

    Some things you'll see in here include:

    --The weekly USCHO Posters Poll

    --A few 'what-ifs' from the week that was (Would Lindenwood be a TUC had they not lost 14-0 to Minnesota? Will a win against Clarkson this weekend be enough to put Cornell at the top of the Pairwise? etc.)

    --A conference tournament predictor, similar to what USCHO does on the men's side at the end of the regular season, that will calculate the season-ending Pairwise *exactly* given whatever results you plug in

    --Any other fun things you or I can think of that I can run on an Excel spreadsheet


    To kick things off, wwhyte asked me last night if it was possible for me to approximate a strength of schedule for each team based on their 2014-2015 schedule and last year's RPI numbers. It was, and I did, and here are the results.

    Code:
    Conf Rank SOS (Includes both conf. and non-conf. games)
    WCHA 1    0.5168
    ECAC 2    0.4998
    HEA  3    0.4904
    CHA  4    0.4869
      
    Team               Rank SOS
    St. Lawrence       1    0.5268
    St. Cloud State    2    0.5260
    Minnesota State    3    0.5254
    Bemidji State      4    0.5237
    Minnesota-Duluth   5    0.5174
    North Dakota       6    0.5174
    Ohio State         7    0.5160
    Wisconsin          8    0.5092
    Princeton          9    0.5057
    Dartmouth         10    0.5051
    Cornell           11    0.5040
    Harvard           12    0.5012
    Lindenwood        13    0.5006
    Minnesota         14    0.4994
    Boston University 15    0.4994
    Colgate           16    0.4993
    Penn State        17    0.4991
    Clarkson          18    0.4988
    Northeastern      19    0.4949
    Syracuse          20    0.4938
    Brown             21    0.4936
    Yale              22    0.4934
    Quinnipiac        23    0.4932
    Maine             24    0.4924
    New Hampshire     25    0.4921
    Boston College    26    0.4911
    Rensselaer        27    0.4904
    Providence        28    0.4898
    Connecticut       29    0.4886
    Union             30    0.4866
    RIT               31    0.4785
    Robert Morris     32    0.4768
    Vermont           33    0.4752
    Mercyhurst        34    0.4725
    A couple caveats:

    --This is a VERY rough approximation, as it's running off last year's rankings, but that's obviously all we have. I could run this off any other ranking people want other than RPI (i.e. Rutter) but that's what I had readily available.
    --For games where we don't know the final round matchup (Nutmeg Classic and Beanpot) I assumed that the higher-ranked teams win the first round games.
    --Yale has a regular season game against Sacred Heart? I didn't have Sacred Heart's RPI so I just assigned them the same RPI as the last place team, Penn State. It doesn't make much of a difference anyway.

    Also St. Lawrence being #1 makes you scratch your head until you realize they play Harvard, Cornell, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac in conference, and play BC, Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, Minnesota, twice *each* out of conference, plus another two with Clarkson.

    ---------
    Last edited by TonyTheTiger20; 12-15-2014, 06:38 PM.
    Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
    Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
    Twitter: @Salzano14


    Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

  • #2
    Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

    Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
    Also St. Lawrence being #1 makes you scratch your head until you realize they play Harvard, Cornell, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac 4x, and play BC, Mercyhurst, Robert Morris, and Minnesota twice *each* out of conference.
    ECAC teams only play each other twice in conference. SLU and Clarkson sometimes add in a couple of extra games with each other out of conference.
    "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

      Originally posted by ARM View Post
      ECAC teams only play each other twice in conference. SLU and Clarkson sometimes add in a couple of extra games with each other out of conference.
      Ah, I counted the games against Clarkson and made the mental leap that they all must be the same number. Oops. Well, still haha. That's a brutal schedule.
      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
      Twitter: @Salzano14


      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

        Originally posted by TonyTheTiger20 View Post
        That's a brutal schedule.
        It is. As for most brutal stretch, I nominate SCSU. Between Nov. 14 and Dec 6, the Huskies play Minnesota three times and Wisconsin, UMD, and North Dakota twice apiece.

        Admittedly, SLU's October is none too shabby.
        "... And lose, and start again at your beginnings
        And never breathe a word about your loss;" -- Rudyard Kipling

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

          Originally posted by ARM View Post
          It is. As for most brutal stretch, I nominate SCSU. Between Nov. 14 and Dec 6, the Huskies play Minnesota three times and Wisconsin, UMD, and North Dakota twice apiece.
          Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
          Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
          Twitter: @Salzano14


          Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

            Anyone have any idea what time today the USCHO poll comes out?
            Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
            Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
            Twitter: @Salzano14


            Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

              First USCHO poll of the season:
              Team (First Place Votes ) Points
              1 Minnesota (12) 146
              2 Wisconsin 117
              3 Boston College 112
              4 Harvard ( 1) 98
              5 Cornell 94
              6 Boston University ( 1) 72
              7 Clarkson ( 1) 62
              8 North Dakota 46
              9 Mercyhurst 35
              10 Minnesota-Duluth 16
              10 Quinnipiac 16
              Others receiving votes: Northeastern 8, Robert Morris 2, Rochester Institute of Technology 1.


              Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/d-i-wo...#ixzz3E4nXFfex

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                Can someone let that voter know that Jack Eichel is going to play on the BU *MEN'S* team?
                Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                Twitter: @Salzano14


                Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                  Considering who did receive first place votes, none for BC does seem a little strange.
                  Minnesota Hockey

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                    Does anybody know who BU is counting on at goalie? Who is supposed to be the starter?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                      Originally posted by KTDC View Post
                      Does anybody know who BU is counting on at goalie? Who is supposed to be the starter?
                      ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
                      Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                      Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                      Twitter: @Salzano14


                      Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                        Freshman Erin O'neil is a strong goaltender,sophomore Victoria Hansen had a 3-2 record in play. From what I saw of Hansen in the UVM game she played, she did not play well. Sophomore Mia Becker did not log any game minutes last year.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                          Originally posted by sheagle008 View Post
                          Freshman Erin O'neil is a strong goaltender,sophomore Victoria Hansen had a 3-2 record in play. From what I saw of Hansen in the UVM game she played, she did not play well. Sophomore Mia Becker did not log any game minutes last year.
                          Yup, Erin O'Neil was on the U18s with Katie Burt who's accelerated to join BC. O'Neil was selected to start in the U18 world final and gets the loss to Canada. Battle of Comm Ave!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                            Originally posted by wwhyte View Post
                            Yup, Erin O'Neil was on the U18s with Katie Burt who's accelerated to join BC. O'Neil was selected to start in the U18 world final and gets the loss to Canada. Battle of Comm Ave!
                            You mentioned the BU-Minnesota matchup elsewhere in what I would think was a facetious manner (I really don't know with BC posters anymore) as to the outcome but that will give you a good gauge for sizing up the competition.
                            At the outset, we could hang with the dude...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

                              Originally posted by sheagle008 View Post
                              Freshman Erin O'neil is a strong goaltender
                              She and Burt were the goalies on the U18 team, correct?
                              Grant Salzano, Boston College '10
                              Writer Emeritus, BC Interruption
                              Twitter: @Salzano14


                              Click here for the BC Interruption Pairwise, KRACH, and GRaNT Calculators

                              Comment

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