Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

[FireKnight]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Inspired by TTT's RPI calculator last week I decided to see what KRACH has to think about this tournament. So I plugged it all into an Excel spreadsheet which, assuming I can use the Public Folder on my Dropbox correctly, you can find here.

Some highlights:

KRACH thinks Minnesota has a 95% chance of winning its quarterfinal game. Everyone else is between 30% and 70% with Clarkson/BC being the closest to a toss up.

Chances of winning the whole thing: Minnesota 72.8%; Wisconsin 9.0%; Cornell 6.6%; Clarkson 5.6%; BC 2.8%; Harvard 1.6%; Mercyhurst 1.3%; BU 0.4%

This is some pretty neat work. I was particularly interested in your semifinal matches. Talk about virtual toss-up … how about Cornell-Clarkson at 51-49?

[Eeyore]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

So you're saying there's a chance.

Yes. There is a mathematical chance that BU could win the title.

[FireKnight]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Yes. There is a mathematical chance that BU could win the title.

There is, however, no chance that North Dakota wins the title.

[joegrav]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

There is, however, no chance that North Dakota wins the title.

I like this guy.

He knows his math.

[TonyTheTiger20]

There is, however, no chance that North Dakota wins the title.

You sure you can't make it to Potsdam?

[FireKnight]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

You sure you can't make it to Potsdam?

The timing is just horrible. I work Saturday night and I'm on vacation from 3/17-3/24. If I called in sick the day before a vacation, my bosses would not be happy.

[OnMAA]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

why even post the pole?

Why do people keep calling it a pole.? Seen that reference spelled like that on this board many times. I think the word we are looking for is a Poll, unless I'm missing something

(In my country a pole is an item you use to jump across the ditches, canals, dijken and marsh lands. I'm not kidding something called "polstokspringen" is a serious sport in my native land. They even had it as one of the challenges one year in the Amazing Race. The Pole vault event in T&F was derived from it. If you don't believe me look it up. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag0-9304paQ )

[OnMAA]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Report from the BC practice:
The first drill today was the Heimlich maneuver!!!!!!! Another HE choke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is indeed funny. Well done.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Why do people keep calling it a pole.? Seen that reference spelled like that on this board many times. I think the word we are looking for is a Poll, unless I'm missing something

It's an old USCHO forum inside joke haha

[ARM]

Inspired by TTT's RPI calculator last week I decided to see what KRACH has to think about this tournament. So I plugged it all into an Excel spreadsheet which, assuming I can use the Public Folder on my Dropbox correctly, you can find here.

Some highlights:

KRACH thinks Minnesota has a 95% chance of winning its quarterfinal game. Everyone else is between 30% and 70% with Clarkson/BC being the closest to a toss up.

Chances of winning the whole thing: Minnesota 72.8%; Wisconsin 9.0%; Cornell 6.6%; Clarkson 5.6%; BC 2.8%; Harvard 1.6%; Mercyhurst 1.3%; BU 0.4%

For the sake of comparison, here are Robin Locke's predictions for the week:

NCAA Quarterfinals:

Saturday, March 15:
Boston College      1.25 at Clarkson            2.77 
Mercyhurst          2.48 at Cornell             3.19 
Boston University   1.04 at Minnesota           6.59 
Harvard             1.05 at Wisconsin           2.37

… from his site:
http://it.stlawu.edu/~chodr/wchodr/next.html

[ARM]

It's an old USCHO forum inside joke haha

I think this was the first year I've ever been able to get this completed before anyone posted, "Where's the pole?"

[5mn_Major]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Inspired by TTT's RPI calculator last week I decided to see what KRACH has to think about this tournament. So I plugged it all into an Excel spreadsheet which, assuming I can use the Public Folder on my Dropbox correctly, you can find here.

Some highlights:

KRACH thinks Minnesota has a 95% chance of winning its quarterfinal game. Everyone else is between 30% and 70% with Clarkson/BC being the closest to a toss up.

Chances of winning the whole thing: Minnesota 72.8%; Wisconsin 9.0%; Cornell 6.6%; Clarkson 5.6%; BC 2.8%; Harvard 1.6%; Mercyhurst 1.3%; BU 0.4%

Hard to say that MN's odds are quite that high. I'd also give UW a chance more in line with eastern schools (Cornell, Clarkson, etc): MN has one more opportunity at an L before they would play an eastern school not named BU...and the game is out east giving a hair of an advantage to eastern schools.

[Eeyore]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Hard to say that MN's odds are quite that high. I'd also give UW a chance more in line with eastern schools (Cornell, Clarkson, etc): MN has one more opportunity at an L before they would play an eastern school not named BU...and the game is out east giving a hair of an advantage to eastern schools.

I'd agree that Minnesota's chances aren't quite that high but for a different reason: I'm pretty sure they've overachieved. Not necessarily by much, but at least a little. No one's true talent level is a 36-1-1 record and my guess is that if you played this season out 10,000 times you'd find that the Gophers averaged 3-5 losses. So in that sense, KRACH probably overstates how good they actually are. I really don't know by how much but pulling a number out of my *** I'd probably give BU more like a 10% chance to win on Saturday.

[TonyTheTiger20]

No one's true talent level is a 36-1-1 record and my guess is that if you played this season out 10,000 times you'd find that the Gophers averaged 3-5 losses.

Wow I do not agree with this.

[northhockey]

Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?

Wow I do not agree with this.

I hope Eeyore is joking