2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

[UnionHockeyManiac]

HUUUGE weekend for Union, but we're still #4 in the Pairwise. Ferris State somehow moved ahead of us. A big thank you to SLU for beating Quinnipiac! The 3 point lead in the standings is nice, but still isn't 100% comfortable. Gotta keep winning. Let's go U!

*Up to #3 in the Pairwise.

[UnionFan4Life]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Great weekend for Union! I'm glad to have Rick back for the rest of the season as well. I think this is where we take our game to the next level.

[rdf8585]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Here's another highlight from last night, the Ciampini-Carr give-and-go in the third that made it a 3-2 Union lead -

http://youtu.be/3C8ipaHTnCo

Kind of quiet around here considering the big weekend... though the Pairwise is what matters, it will be interesting to see where Union is in the USCHO poll. With Minnesota losing twice and Quinnipiac once, there's a chance the Dutchmen could go from fourth to second. If they are second, it would be their highest-ever ranking. Third may be more likely.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Here's another highlight from last night, the Ciampini-Carr give-and-go in the third that made it a 3-2 Union lead -

http://youtu.be/3C8ipaHTnCo

Kind of quiet around here considering the big weekend... though the Pairwise is what matters, it will be interesting to see where Union is in the USCHO poll. With Minnesota losing twice and Quinnipiac once, there's a chance the Dutchmen could go from fourth to second. If they are second, it would be their highest-ever ranking. Third may be more likely.

Very quiet here. Where is everyone?

I've been thinking about the poll as well. As you said, the PWR is much more important and it's great to see us at #3 there. If the season ended today, we'd be the #1 seed in Bridgeport. Can't ask for more than that. As for the poll, it'd be incredible to see us in the #2 spot. With Minnesota losing two straight to Wisconsin, I'm guessing/hoping the top 5 will look like this:

1. BC
2. Union
3. Minnesota
4. Ferris
5. Quinnipiac

[SPSalum]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Matt Eversmann dropped the puck to start Sat's game. The Yale captain looked up at him and told him that he had just done a term paper on Matt and Black Hawk Down!

[Nottme]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

"Very quiet here. Where is everyone?"

Holding my breath... 3 wins in 4 games after the suspensions, players and coaches step up and no one loses their focus. Very proud of all these guys. Next weekend will be even tougher.

[Dutchman]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Its great being a Union College Hockey Fan, especially this year, where the expectations were lower than a lot of other teams, in the ECAC. Regardless of how this season ends from here on out, this team has been a joy to watch. Seeing Daniel Carr step up to score that critical 3ed goal against the National Champs, Yale, reminded me of him scoring the winning goal against Harvard two years ago in Atlantic City. We are never going to be able to replace this kid. He epitimizes the upperclassmen leadership that we have seen all year. When the going gets tought ... the tough get going.

I hate polls.

Nationally, looking at the PW we are either tied for 4th with QU and behind Ferris or in 3rd.
Looking at the RPI
College Hockey News http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php
Ferris .5712
Union .5704
USCHO http://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi/d-i-men/ and SiouxSports.com http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpi/
Union .5710
Ferris .5707

What the polls don't show is:
- The air is very thin up here in the top 5 and if you breath too much, you will start hallucinating
- There is a great deal of sensitivity in the RPI calculations from #3 to #11 and not so much for BC and Minnessota. Hard to move up .... very easy to drop like a rock.
- Ferris has 6 games remaining and all of their opponents are, in general, in the bottom half of their league (WCHA) and none of them are ranked.
- We are facing six teams that are out for us and four are ranked and one is ranked 6th (woops 9th) and is in a foul mood, has a history of beating us and is almost impossible to beat at home. Another is the defending National Champ.
- While 26 points are great, and usually enought to secure an ECAC bye and home advanatge, as it has been the past 5 seasons, mathematically there are scenerio's, however improbable, where we would not make it.

The good news is that we are doing very well on the road this year. We are 10-2-2 and our only two losses have been 2-1 affairs against very good teams, QU and St. Lawrence. This should give no comfort to our next two opponents. We have 4 more away games.

"Go Dutchmen"

[aweise]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

A wise man once said..."Polls are nice, but so are ceramic dalmatians."

Being ranked high in a poll is nothing to sneeze at - it's basically saying that the coaches/media across the country have respect for your team and what you've done over the course of the year.

That said, the polls don't say anything in regards to where you'll end up once the season and conference tourneys are done. The Pairwise is the closest thing to a deciding formula for the NCAA participants and that's really what we should be looking at. At the moment, it does appear that the PWR would project Union to be a #1 seed, likely being placed in Bridgeport. However, it's way too soon to worry about that. We're not even halfway through February, plus we've just started to hit the home stretch in ECAC play.

What I'm concerned about now is clinching a first round bye. With 6 games to go, Union has clinched a top 7 finish. There are plenty of scenarios to work through, but winning games and seeing teams like RPI, Yale, Cornell, and Clarkson not win would be a big help to clinch a top 4 finish. A win over Cornell on Friday (as daunting as that can be) would go a long way towards that goal.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I think we're all aware at this point that it's the Pairwise that counts, but I still like waiting for the polls to come out on Monday. I think they players check them too (for better or worse).

[Kepler]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

A wise man once said..."Polls are nice, but so are ceramic dalmatians."

IINM, that's the same wise man who designed the CHN PWR emulator.

[sshablak]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I can't hold back "THE CURSEEEEEEEEEEEEE" !

[Dutchman]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Our overall record against Cornell is 14-32-7 which is better than what I thought. We will only need to sweep them for 10 years to even up the record. Since 2003 we have only beated them three times at Lynah, the last being 1/15/2011. Union and Cornell are both tied at 14th on team defense, Cornell's strength. Both Cornell and Union were in the top 10 on defense a few weeks back. Both Cornell and Unions powerplay have fallen on hard times.

PK
Cornell 84.3
Union 80.4
PP
Cornell 21.60
Union 20.43

Since January the numbers favor us but things are skewed since Cornell gave up 4 goals in the third period against Colgate. It looks like it was a close 2-1 in the third. Looks like Cornell gave Golgate 8 PP opportunities and Colgate scored on three of them, two in the last period.

[rdf8585]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Union matched its highest-ever ranking this week, sitting third in both polls behind Minnesota (2) and BC (1).

One last video from the weekend - Theo DiPauli's first collegiate goal: http://youtu.be/fMBsifE5hyw

[Kepler]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Cornell gave up 4 goals in the third period against Colgate. It looks like it was a close 2-1 in the third.

It wasn't. It was a sort of miracle of mutual terrible play that Colgate wasn't already winning by 3 or 4 even before the third period beat down. I have no explanation for what happened -- like the 10-0 loss to Q last year, there is occasionally a game where the Sisters of the Poor impersonate us. Actually, scratch that. The SoP would have shown some scrappiness and effort.

We have matched up really well against Union, even in the years when Union was a much better squad than we. Not sure why, although I think it may be because both teams have very similar conservative styles. Of the really strong teams in the past few seasons, while Yale was a blur and Q was a hot mess, Union was completely familiar, like playing a slightly more attractive twin.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 11 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 156 teams, 127 (81.4%) that qualified as of the post-Beanpot Pairwise would have made the eventual field. No teams that were ranked in the top 6 after the Beanpot dropped out of the eventual field. Three teams that were ranked #7 and two more that were #8 fell out of the rankings. "Only" 34 of the 44 (77.3%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

The 2010 Northern Michigan squad was ranked #23 and still earned at an-large bid. The 2007 UMass Minutemen were #21. The 2013 Wisconsin Badgers joined the group as a #22 seed. Every other team has been in the top 20 post-Beanpot.

Some teams that are on the doorstep have a track record of success in the last month of the season. #18 North Dakota has come from outside the field three times to qualify. #16 Maine and #24 New Hampshire have done it twice. Those three, along with #9 Cornell, are the only teams to do it more than once.

On the other side, Denver has fallen out three times. Ohio State, Northern Michigan and Colorado College have done it twice. Of those currently in the field, #14 Minnesota-Duluth has done it on two occasions.

Historically, the field should look like this.
Teams in bold are locks (historically)
Teams from 7 and 24 are still in the running.
Teams below 25 need to autobid.

Boston College
Minnesota
Union
Ferris State
Quinnipiac
Mass.-Lowell
----
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Cornell
Michigan
Providence
Northeastern
Vermont
Minnesota-Duluth
Colgate
-
Maine
Yale
North Dakota
Clarkson
Notre Dame
Minnesota State
Western Michigan
Denver
New Hampshire
----
Ohio State
Alaska-Anchorage
St. Lawrence
Brown
Rensselaer
Bowling Green
Nebraska-Omaha
Air Force
Lake Superior
Michigan Tech
Miami
Alaska-Fairbanks
Bentley
Northern Michigan
Mercyhurst
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Michigan State
Harvard
Bemidji State
Merrimack
Boston University
Robert Morris
Canisius
Colorado College
Niagara
Dartmouth
Penn State
Holy Cross
RIT
American Int'l
Princeton
Sacred Heart
Alabama-Huntsville
Army

The results of the Crockpot did not alter this week's bracketology.

According to our friend, Priceless, Union is a lock to make the National Tourney with an at-large bid. I know our goal this year is bigger than just making the tournament, but it's still nice to know that we're in no matter what.