Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4/11

[KnowItAll]

I think the notion that Yale is a huge underdog is solely driven by their implosion in the ECAC playoffs, and the subsequent fall to the 15th seed. If you go back to the Friday afternoon that the ECAC playoffs started (just 11 days ago from today), Yale was tied for 4th in PWR with Miami (QU-1, Min-2, UML-3, Yale/Miami-4). After completely laying an egg against in Atlantic City, they fell all the way to 15th and barely made the tournament.

If you consider their no-show that weekend to be an anomaly and you take their season long perfomance in context, up to that point 11 days ago, and putting any stock in the Pairwise at all, then their win vs Min was in reality a very minor upset (PWR-4 beating PWR-2), and their win over North Dakota wasn't an upset at all (PWR-4 beating PWR 7 or 8).

I fully realize that you can't just exclude games and say that they are the 4th ranked team in the country and Atlantic City never happened. What I'm trying to illustrate is that 11 days ago they were 4th, and thus they are probably better than the 15th seed indicates. The 15th seed is what drives the "major upset" talk when in reality they are probably close/equal in talent to most of the teams in the tournament.

so forget about the tourney performance, and forget about the stretch from Jam 26 to Feb. 22nd

anything else to forget?
Heck Huntville could be considered undefeated this season if we only look at that win.

[goblue78]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

so forget about the tourney performance, and forget about the stretch from Jam 26 to Feb. 22nd

anything else to forget?
Heck Huntville could be considered undefeated this season if we only look at that win.

The February stretch didn't have Malcolm in goal, though to be fair it had a 1-0 loss to Brown which clearly can't be laid on the goaltending (well, not on Yale's goaltending anyway -- Morelli was unbelievable.)
But, yeah. Any team is good if you consider only the times when they were good. That just brings up the next question: do you expect them to behave more like they did in the good stretches or in the bad stretches. (In Huntsville case, in that one game or the rest of them.) There isn't a single Yale fan who is absolutely positive that last week's team will be in Pittsburgh, as much as we'd like to will it to be so. Hey, it's hockey -- stuff happens. But there wasn't a Yale fan who expected them to have the weekend they had in AC, either. Yale has been erratic this season. Huntsville has been consistent. Erratic teams are harder to forecast.

Here's my "analysis": Great week 3 weeks ago. Bad week 2 weeks ago. Great week one week ago. Bad week this week (whew! aren't playing). Great week next week.

[yalehockeyfan]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I haven't had the opportunity to see Yale play. Can anyone chime in on the recipe Yale is going to need for yet another upset in this NCAA tourney vs UML?

Yale has had an up and down season this year, but the down for the most part has been when our starting goalie (Malcolm) has been out, and also has only been against ECAC foes. With Malcolm in net, and for almost all our non-ECAC games, there have been few teams in the country who can match Yale's success.
Yale plays an up tempo, aggressive forecheck, speed style. We have added a few larger D men in the past 2 years which has also helped shore up that part of our team as our offense is not nearly what it was 2-3 years ago when we led all NCAA is scoring, but overall this team may be more well rounded. Our top line led by Kenny Agostino (one of the players traded from Pitt for Iginla) and Andrew Miller (a few assists away from being all-time Yale leader) can skate with anyone and has been the best line on the ice in both the Minn and North Dakota games.
Yale has also been great in close games, beating Denver and CC in overtime, not to mention Minn in tourney.
One of the keys for this team is to not fall behind early. When that happens, the outcome hasn't been good. In fact if you look at our goal difference in the regular season, despite a winning record in ECAC play 12-9-1, we actually gave up more goals than we scored (60-62).
Tell us a little about UML.

[KnowItAll]

Yale has had an up and down season this year, but the down for the most part has been when our starting goalie (Malcolm) has been out, and also has only been against ECAC foes. With Malcolm in net, and for almost all our non-ECAC games, there have been few teams in the country who can match Yale's success.
Yale plays an up tempo, aggressive forecheck, speed style. We have added a few larger D men in the past 2 years which has also helped shore up that part of our team as our offense is not nearly what it was 2-3 years ago when we led all NCAA is scoring, but overall this team may be more well rounded. Our top line led by Kenny Agostino (one of the players traded from Pitt for Iginla) and Andrew Miller (a few assists away from being all-time Yale leader) can skate with anyone and has been the best line on the ice in both the Minn and North Dakota games.
Yale has also been great in close games, beating Denver and CC in overtime, not to mention Minn in tourney.
One of the keys for this team is to not fall behind early. When that happens, the outcome hasn't been good. In fact if you look at our goal difference in the regular season, despite a winning record in ECAC play 12-9-1, we actually gave up more goals than we scored (60-62).
Tell us a little about UML.

Hellybuck stole the starting goalie position midseason and is on a tear. He is solid positionally and he does not give up many rebounds.
Wilson is a genuine future NHLer. He is strong, has hands and vision and is generally one of the fastest players on the ice, with or without the puck. Look for him in the AHL in 2.5 weeks, sophomore or not, he is probably the best Riverhawk forward in ages. (he got the benefit of the doubt from Hockey East Refs for his minor goonery and interference, but in the NCAAs, not so much. Yale will hope for powerplays due to his infractions).
Pendenza is another player to look out for... fast and plays great O.
The D is solid. No real weaknesses.
Arnold has a knack for hitting the back of the net... look for him to trail a 4 man attack on the crease and put one in during a maelstrom... he has done that a few times in the playoffs.
the team will skate circles around any team that is not in tip top aerobic shape.

[yalehockeyfan]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

the team will skate circles around any team that is not in tip top aerobic shape.

ditto. if there is one thing I never worry about with Allain's teams it is that they are in shape....our ability to protect the net as your big men crash it may be an issue, conditioning and speed won't be.

[Patman]

ditto. if there is one thing I never worry about with Allain's teams it is that they are in shape....our ability to protect the net as your big men crash it may be an issue, conditioning and speed won't be.

Interesting... I've felt our advantage is we've worn teams down and were the last man standing. I still think we're playing very tough and I expect to win. We will see what comes out but I have hard time think that Yale won't be getting an awfully tough game

Also, KIA is a Maine fan.

[Patman]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

KIA should also note that anything he says we aren't responsible for and further since I have him ignored, except on my work computer, I don't usually see what he writes and thus have no specific objection to that which I have not seen.

----

That being said, despite being several states away I have seen more Lowell games than you have.

[yalehockeyfan]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I have hard time think that Yale won't be getting an awfully tough game.

I'd expect nothing less given UMLs track record this year....and if we play the way we have been UML should expect the same. Should be a great game.

[goblue78]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

Lacking anything better to do in the offseason, Siouxsports continues to calculate PWR even after the tournament starts. (That's only a minor dig -- I think Siouxsports is an invaluable website.) Lowell has risen to 2nd (passing Minnesota) and Yale has risen back to 5th. Of course, that says more about the instability of PWR than about the erratic play of Yale, but it makes ZamboniDude's point above a little clearer. KRACH has Lowell in 2nd at 153.857 (gotta love that third decimal point) while Yale is 4th at 106.836. KRACH probability of a Lowell win: 59%.

[BostonSoccerDad]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I think the notion that Yale is a huge underdog is solely driven....

I had no intention of demeaning Yale's success in my original question. It was more tongue-in-cheek and in hindsight should have put the word "underdog" in quotes. Oh well. For those that provided thoughtful analysis on the upcoming game, thank you! No question that it will be an interesting and close game. If UML's D can stifle and frustrate Yale's up-tempo game while staying out of the penalty box, then Lowell will move on.

[riverchief1]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

Lowell Frozen Four Fan Hub is up -

http://goriverhawks.com/sports/2013/...rozenFour.aspx

[ZamboniDude]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I had no intention of demeaning Yale's success in my original question. It was more tongue-in-cheek and in hindsight should have put the word "underdog" in quotes. Oh well. For those that provided thoughtful analysis on the upcoming game, thank you! No question that it will be an interesting and close game. If UML's D can stifle and frustrate Yale's up-tempo game while staying out of the penalty box, then Lowell will move on.

No worries, I hadn't intended to single your comment out. There had been a general undertone in several threads, especially right after the MIN game, that they were a huge darkhorse that came out of nowhere. But I thought it was interesting that on March 22nd, after an entire season of 31 games (no, not ignoring the Jan/Feb swoon, or anything at all from Oct until Mar 22), they were #4 in PWR. The two games on 03/22 and 3/23 dumped them from #4 to #15. So my point was that perhaps they are better skilled than your average #15, and the upsets in the NCAA tourney weren't that dramatic. I just did a poor job of trying to explain it (poor for KIA's tastes at least).

Anyway, perhaps my insight would have been taken with a sense of objectiveness if I had stated these two facts at the start of the comment: #1: I am not a Yale fan, and #2: as talented as I think Yale is, I think UML will win this game. I think the UML style is better suited to deal with Yale's speed and pressure game than the WCHA style of MIN/NoDak. But I think it will be a great game and Yale certainly has a chance of pulling out a win.

[Go-UML]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

But I think it will be a great game and Yale certainly has a chance of pulling out a win.

I don't think any team can be ruled out at this point. I certainly hope our style of play can frustrate and limit Yale but we'll see. I think we're guaranteed two good games, as long as nobody gets the 'OMG, we're HERE' jitters.

[UMLFan]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I think we're guaranteed two good games, as long as nobody gets the 'OMG, we're HERE' jitters.

Other than me, of course.

[matt]

Re: Yale vs. UMass-Lowell (Handsome Dan vs. Rowdy) - Frozen Four National Semifinal 4

I think the notion that Yale is a huge underdog is solely driven by their implosion in the ECAC playoffs, and the subsequent fall to the 15th seed. If you go back to the Friday afternoon that the ECAC playoffs started (just 11 days ago from today), Yale was tied for 4th in PWR with Miami (QU-1, Min-2, UML-3, Yale/Miami-4). After completely laying an egg against in Atlantic City, they fell all the way to 15th and barely made the tournament.

If you consider their no-show that weekend to be an anomaly and you take their season long perfomance in context, up to that point 11 days ago, and putting any stock in the Pairwise at all, then their win vs Min was in reality a very minor upset (PWR-4 beating PWR-2), and their win over North Dakota wasn't an upset at all (PWR-4 beating PWR 7 or 8).

I fully realize that you can't just exclude games and say that they are the 4th ranked team in the country and Atlantic City never happened. What I'm trying to illustrate is that 11 days ago they were 4th, and thus they are probably better than the 15th seed indicates. The 15th seed is what drives the "major upset" talk when in reality they are probably close/equal in talent to most of the teams in the tournament.

This is all true, but until last weekend it worked in reverse as well: The reason they were up at #4 in the first place was due largely to a trio of early season results: An OT win at Denver, and OT win at Colorado, and a tie at BC. Those are all impressive results, but if even one of those OTs had gone the other way they would not have been #4, and that's a lot of weight on a single goal.

The February swoon is being blamed largely on the absence of Jeff Malcolm, but the most obvious things about it were a) the lack of offense, and b) the losses were to Quiinipac (twice), Brown, RPI and Union. That is, the toughest part of their schedule. The wins when Malcolm came back were -- at least until the St. Lawrence series -- squeakers against lesser teams. By that measure, it appeared that it wasn't Atlantic City that was the anomaly, but rather those early season results. That's why Grand Rapids was so very surprising.