UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

[gopher wes]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

When was the last time Gophers won a series in Cloud? Last year was two home and homes, and in the two home games for us we split. Year before was at Mariucci and then I think home and homes before that. I think its been sometime since the Gophers have won a series in the NHC

Not sure about sweeping at St Cloud, but I believe it was 09-10 where the Gophers won all six games against SCSU. 2 home and homes and 2 games at Mariucci in the first round playoffs. Don't know the last time both games were at Cloud and I'm too lazy to check.

[EASTgrandforks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

Disagree... Gopher's have advantages over SCSU in everything PP, PK and Team Defense. It will be a battle between Faragher and Wilcox, both teams will come to play. Results will be determined by which goalie stands on their head. Leaning towards Gopher sweep!

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Disagree... Gopher's have advantages over SCSU in everything PP, PK and Team Defense. It will be a battle between Faragher and Wilcox, both teams will come to play. Results will be determined by which goalie stands on their head. Leaning towards Gopher sweep!

One WCHA sweep all season, at home, against by far the worst team in the conference, and now they'll go into the building of the WCHA leading team, who hasn't lost a series all year, and they'll drub them. Got it.

[mnstate0fhockey]

One WCHA sweep all season, at home, against by far the worst team in the conference, and now they'll go into the building of the WCHA leading team, who hasn't lost a series all year, and they'll drub them. Got it.

Not seeing where he said the Gophers will "drub" SCSU.

[Koho]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I'm going to try to break this down a bit...

Advantages
Faceoffs: Minnesota - Bjugstad will beat LeBlanc 70% of the time. Morley is the SCSU faceoff specialist, but he won't be matched up against Bjugstad.
Penalties: St. Cloud - Gophers aren't goons, but the Huskies are angels compared to every other team in the WCHA.
Powerplay: Minnesota - Huskies are no slouches, but the Gophers are as good at scoring on the powerplay as the Huskies are at avoiding them.
Penalty Kill: Draw - Both teams are solid here, neither with an overly aggressive PK style.
Goaltending: Draw - Wilcox's stats are a bit prettier overall, but Faragher's stats are better in conference games.
Team Offense: Minnesota - Both teams are scoring (3.40 for the Huskies and 3.39 for the Gophers in conference play), but the Gophers are shooting the puck more (31.3 avg).
Team Defense: St. Cloud - The Huskies have allowed an average of only 23.6 shots per game in their last 12 WCHA games and are +17 in the conference overall.
Intangibles: St. Cloud - Playing at home

I see a split this weekend, but I give the Huskies a slightly higher chance of coming away with extra points. Thoughts?

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I don't really do predictions. I've only seen parts of a handful of SCSU games, so can't claim to know how good they are. They are obviously a very skilled team. How much effort each team puts into the game will have the biggest influence, along with how hot the goalies are and maybe even a lucky bounce or bad call or stupid penalty. Past stats pretty much indicate that both teams are close enough that neither team should expect a sweep. They'll have to try to earn any points.

[SCSU Euro]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Not seeing where he said the Gophers will "drub" SCSU.

Well he didn't give a score prediction, but they're sweeping and they're playing an opponent that they're better than in every facet of the game, so they better drub them, right?

[Tiggsy]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

You guys? I can assure you I am not a UND player but let's not live in the past, tell me the game plan for defeating the mighty Marcia Brady.

Hold on! I just wanted to point this out because we may never see it again. A Whioux fan is saying we should not live in the past. What's next? They say you shouldn't go out and buy jerseys for a team you have never heard of and never will again?

Okay, continue. Although it seems a little early in the week for actual hockey talk. Maybe a refreshing change to get to it so soon.

[motox]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Not what the stats say other than that both teams are good enough that neither team should expect a sweep based on the stats.

Wait, what? I get what you're saying but that was just a funny way of going about it.

I can't believe how much time has already been spent arguing the relevance of non-conference records. Of course it matters, but only in terms of how it affects overall record and PWR ranking. Do the games SCSU lost to UNH/NMU or the games MN beat Notre Dame/BC have any impact on this series or any future games they play? No.

Should be two very good games and with these teams playing at the level they are any outcome wouldn't be a surprise. Either way it's going to be great hockey.

[Tipsy McStagger]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

[The Exiled One]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

I've watched them play most of their conference and non-conference games, and I can tell you without hesitation, yes, they played very differently.

Feel free to compare the teams using overall stats, the Gophers will win most of those comparisons. I don't feel they're as indicative of how the two teams will play this weekend, but that doesn't mean you can't use them to support your point-of-view.

[Bronzebacks]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

Their NC opponents are not overly impressive. Keep in mind that SCSU played DU 4 games and UND 4 games this year. These are tough teams and a boost to SCSU's SOS. UM will only play both of those teams 2 times each barring any playoff meetings.

I don't know why Husky fans are so sensitive to a legitimate criticism of our team when it comes to NC games. They crapped the bed. Does that mean it will happen again. Nope. But it most certainly proves that it can happen. On paper it looks like it should be an epic battle between these teams. I hope we see just that. But on paper it looked like we should have had a goal frenzy against RPI and UNM.

[captain beefheart]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

Well he didn't give a score prediction, but they're sweeping and they're playing an opponent that they're better than in every facet of the game, so they better drub them, right?

It would be nice,true. But since we are at your cute little house, the scores may be closer than the talent disparity would otherwise dictate.

[Koho]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

I like to use conference stats because that is the closest you are going to get to comparisons against equal competition. The Gophers had two non-conference games against good teams. The rest were pretty much cupcakes. Gophers NC opponents RPI: 53, 53, 47, 45, 45, 39, 5, 15. St. Cloud State NC opponents RPI: 4, 4, 58, 58, 29, 29, 23, 23. How else would you explain the Gophers having an SOS of 33, while SCSU has a SOS of 8?

If you really want to use stats to compare, you should pull together stats from the last 8 games or so to see how they are playing recently. Mn had a stretch early on of low scoring games and not great PP after the opening weekend. Or maybe just compare similar opponents records? Or how about pro-rating based on opponents winning percentage? The point is, stats just offer a general comparison, I don't think you can say SCSU has an defensive advantage because the conference record is slightly better over the entire season. They both look good on paper and both have been playing well recently. (And I can't say I would trade MN's D corp for any in the nation, BTW, including SCSU's.) That is what I was getting at with the butchered sentence that motox pointed out. Throw the stats out. Most likely, each game will be won by the team that wants it more.

[mnstate0fhockey]

I never understood the comparison of only conference game stats. Do the teams play differently outside the conference? Thought they'd always want to try to win, even in non-conference.

If you look at overall stats, MN is in the top 6 in scoring (1st), defense (4), pp (3) and pk (6) (and only averages a couple more minutes in penalties per game). SCSU doesn't get any higher than 8 (I think) in any category, other than least penalized. So you could say MN leads in all categories if you use overall stats (and it isn't like they've only played cupcakes).

I don't really do predictions. I've only seen parts of a handful of SCSU games, so can't claim to know how good they are. They are obviously a very skilled team. How much effort each team puts into the game will have the biggest influence, along with how hot the goalies are and maybe even a lucky bounce or bad call or stupid penalty. Past stats pretty much indicate that both teams are close enough that neither team should expect a sweep. They'll have to try to earn any points.

I agree. It's just plain silly to only look at conference stats. I guess you could argue the games are different (OOC opponents have less familiarity with you and vice versa), but then I think that ties in to why I'd be concerned with SCSU's non-conference record if I were them.

[GrinCDXX]

Re: UM @ SCSU: Everything this series should be

It is relevant and a concern. But as long as the team continues to perform at a high level, it is a small concern.

I know one thing is certain, if the our teams out of conference records were flipped, I know our fans would be quick to point it out.

This. So much this.