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  • Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

    --- Home Lock - 39 (BC/UNH/BU/PC/UML/MC) ---
    --- In - 32 (UVM/ME) ---
    BC 23 - 41 [1-10]
    UNH 21 - 43 [1-10]
    BU 21 - 41 [1-10]
    PC 19 - 39 [1-10]
    UML 18 - 40 [1-10]
    MC 18 - 40 [1-10]
    UMA 13 - 35 [1-10]
    UVM 12 - 32 [1-10]
    NU 11 - 31 [1-10]
    ME 10 - 32 [1-10]
    --- Home Eligible - TBD (Field) ---
    --- Out - 12 (UVM) ---

    Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
    (I will fill these out [and Home Eligible, which is massively involved at this point] as part of tonight's update, but I have to get rolling to finish some things up and make my way out to the games.)

    For those unfamiliar with this thread, here's a link to last year's kick-off post.

    -----

    With both the league (two RS weekends in March?) and I having unusual schedules this year, it seems both late and early to me to be starting this year's thread. "Late" because it's already the first Beanpot Friday and we often have to discuss the games-in-hand regarding the three Beanpot schools and how that all evens out in the coming weeks. But we're already there. "Early" because, well, A) I've been so busy that the season's more than half over and it seems to me like it's just starting and B) I usually start this when something has been decided and nothing has been decided yet.

    That's right, nothing.

    Not only could current last place Maine top the standings solo, but current leader BC could still be in 10th all by themselves.

    Of course, had BC swept Maine last weekend, instead of the other way around, they'd be 21 points apart (27-6) instead of 13 (23-10). Still, Since Maine has 11 league games left and there's enough of a gap to move around points among the other teams, Maine could still have come out on top. Just would have been harder - and after tonight, may or may not have been out of reach.

    So it seems like the thread is starting at just about at the right time. Before the Beanpot, and with six weekends to go.

    -----

    As it turns out, what is perhaps most compelling at this point is that the top six teams in the league each have 6 losses, except UNH one ahead with 5 - and the bottom four teams each have 9 losses, except NU one behind with 10. Further, the top three teams each have 1 tie. The next three have 3, 2, and 2. and the bottom three have 4, 3, 4.

    If you look at the combinations of L-T, that gives 6-1, 5-1, 6-1 for BC, UNH and BU. Then a group of 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 for PC, UML and MC (noting that the difference between 6-1 and 6-2 is the same as 6-2 and 6-3, but the extremes of the range at 5-1 and 6-3 are appreciably different). The bottom three are 9-4, 10-3, and 9-4.

    Only UMA is an outlier at 7th with 9 losses but 1 tie.

    I'm not concentrating on the negative. I find that with the games played / games-in-hand as scattered as they are, it is sometimes easiest to see what it is that people can't make up. Generally, people don't look at standings as the playoffs approach and say, "How would we do if everyone lost out?" They don't figure that everyone will crater, take wins as an aberration in the plan, and lock in the wins as they are. It's usually the optimistic side. Noting what is already banked as a missed opportunity for points lets you see what people could maximize if they won out.

    The point of all of that is that the league is amazingly tight this year at this point. Surely someone could catch fire and separate. But as things stand, we could be looking at another year where we have a four point difference between the third seed - atop the league's first three-way tie ever - and 9th place and out of the post-season.

    With things this remarkably tight, now, more than in most seasons, every point will matter from here on out.

    -----

    I have Home Lock at 39, the Max of the bottom of that 5/6 loss group, because of the remaining interlocking schedule. While any of them could max out, they can't all max out and get to 40 (the 4th highest) because of that remaining interlocking schedule. I did it in my head to get four at or beyond 39, but I'll double-check it after tonight's games. With so much variability in there, that's not likely to change for a couple of weekends anyway, once we verify where to set it.

    -----

    One curiosity of note before I head out to tonight's games myself: UML, UMA, and NU occupy the same place in the seedings at the start of this thread as they did at the start of last year's thread (you can use the link above to compare).
    Last edited by Todd; 02-02-2013, 03:45 AM.
    The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
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    smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
    MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
    Scarlet - What he said.
    brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
    TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
    Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
    Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
    Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
    David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
    Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

  • #2
    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

    Welcome back! . Love this thread!
    Gary

    www.umlhockey.com
    Unofficial Home of Lowell Hockey

    182nd member to 2,000 posts
    "It's like putting lipstick on a pig." Chris MacKenzie says, speaking of the fresh paint on the visiting locker room at Alfond.
    KnowItAll: "I have little respect for the imagination and creativity of a person who can only think of ONE way to spell a word."

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Go-UML View Post
      Welcome back! . Love this thread!
      +1...
      *****

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

        --- Home Lock - 38 (BC/UNH/BU/MC) ---
        --- In - 31 (ME) ---
        BC 25 - 41 [1-10]
        UNH 23 - 43 [1-10]
        BU 21 - 39 [1-10]
        MC 20 - 40 [1-10]
        PC 20 - 38 [1-10]
        UML 18 - 38 [1-10]
        UMA 15 - 35 [1-10]
        UVM 12 - 30 [1-10]
        ME 11 - 31 [1-10]
        NU 11 - 29 [1-10]
        --- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
        --- Out - 12 (UVM) ---

        Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
        BC - UML, @MC, UNH, @MC, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
        UNH - MC, @PC/PC, @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
        BU - MC, @MEx2, UML/@UML, UVMx2, @NU/NU
        MC - @UNH, @BU, UMA, BC, @PC, BC, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
        PC - UNH/@UNH, MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
        UML - @ME, @BC, @UMA/UMA, @BU/BU, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
        UMA - NU, @MC, UML/@UML, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
        UVM - ME, @NUx2, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
        ME - UML, @UVM, BUx2, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
        NU - @UMA, UVMx2, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU

        The Home Lock line is currently at 38, and with the four teams listed, with much simpler math than one might expect. In fact, you might be able to do it in your head.

        To make sure we're all on the same page, the premise of the Home Lock line is: how many points would guarantee (at this point) that no more than three teams could be ahead of you. Therefore, the easiest place to start is with the top four team Maximums. After Friday's results, that would be: UNH 43, BC 41, MC 40, BU 39. So the highest that HL could be is now 39, if all teams won out.

        BU is done with both BC and UNH, and BC and UNH only have one head-to-head remaining, with points to spare above 39, so that target is still possible

        However, BU and MC - the bottom two of the four - still have a game together (next Friday). With Maxes of 40 and 39, somehow the lost opportunity for two points (after the game has an actual result, rather than each having a hypothetical win) has to drop those Maxes to 38/39, 39/38, or 40/37. That means that the schedule dictates that Home Lock can be no higher than 38.

        Now MC also has to play BC twice and UNH once, so let's take a broader view. Knowing that we're looking at 38 (instead of 39) gives us a little wiggle room all around. BU has 1 point to spare, MC has 2, BC 3 and UNH 5. Can we use that flexibility with the remaining schedule to keep these four at or above 38 Max?

        Since we're talking about Maxes, we assume everyone involved wins out unless otherwise noted.

        A BU-MC tie uses up BU's spare point (and leaves MC with only one), but also pulls them out of the rest of the calculations, since they're now done with the three other teams. That puts BU's Max in this scenario at 38.

        MC and BC play two. If the four points get split 3/1 in MC's favor, that uses up the spares for both of those squads, but they are still at 38 Max.

        That means MC and BC each would need to win their respective remaining game with UNH, but UNH has 5 points to spare, so it can give up those four.

        In that case, we'd have UNH with a 39 Max and MC, BC, and BU all with a 38 Max. That gives us at least one scenario where it would take 38 points to get Home Ice, so the Home Lock has to be at least 38 - but can't be as high as 39, per above.

        -----

        While we're talking about 38, why not include PC and/or UML in that mix? Well, also pretty straightforward to do in your head with logic, rather than just crunching math.

        Since each has a Max of 38, either would have to win out to hit that level and be included at this point in that benchmark. PC and UML play each other in a H&H on the final RS weekend, so - at best - only one of them could max out.

        -----

        Looking at PC, they play BC for two on the penultimate RS weekend. They'd need to take all four points and BC only has three to spare, so one of the two would have to drop their Max to 37 or lower.

        If you drop BC off the bubble and replace them w/ PC would that work? PC has two with UNH, but UNH has five points to spare. If they give four up to PC, that leaves just one spare for MC (instead of two). MC can use their other spare point tying BU and go ahead and sweep BC, since we're exploring dropping BC out of this scenario's race. That would put PC, UNH, MC and BU all at 38...

        Ah, but alas, MC and PC also have a H2H game and each of them would need all remaining points in this configuration. Can't happen, which puts at least three of the six teams that could hit 38 Max out of the running at 38 if PC is in. That doesn't leave us four teams at or above 38, and we already have one scenario where that works, so PC is not included in a Home Lock foursome at 38 points.

        For people new to this thread, that does not mean that PC cannot get Home Ice, nor that they cannot win the conference outright - just that they can't be one of the four setting that clinching line as high as 38 at the moment.

        -----

        Perhaps even simpler to see than with PC, UML has, over their final three weeks: two more with BU, and two more with MC, and two more with PC.

        We've seen how PC and UML each need to win out to keep the HL line at 38, so if UML sweeps, that knocks PC out of contention for 38. BU has one point to spare above 38 and MC has two. The required-if-they're-to-make-it sweeps by UML overshoot those buffers, also knocking BU and MC out of the race for 38. That means that UML schedule either makes it with their schedule, but bumps three out of six eligible others down in the process -OR - any (which could also be all) of the other three schools take points and once any points are taken, UML is out of that mix.

        Hence, the Home Lock line as it stands.

        -----

        For Home Eligible, the question is: how low can your Max be where you are still mathematically alive for Home Ice?

        Short answer: 24, in a couple of different configurations.

        -----

        Lastly, NU (with the lowest Max) could still be solo in 1st place, and any of the top teams could still finish at the bottom.
        Last edited by Todd; 02-02-2013, 03:42 AM.
        The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
        cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
        smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
        MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
        Scarlet - What he said.
        brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
        TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
        Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
        Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
        Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
        David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
        Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

          So glad to see this thread back again. Such a great analysis and eliminates my need to think during the morning coffee. Thanks for doing this again.
          Please join me in the fight to reduce the world's supply of Bacardi.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

            --- Home Lock - 38 (BC/UNH/BU/MC) ---
            --- In - 31 (ME) ---
            BC 25 - 41 [1-10]
            UNH 23 - 41 [1-10]
            MC 22 - 40 [1-10]
            BU 21 - 39 [1-10]
            PC 20 - 38 [1-10]
            UML 18 - 36 [1-10]
            UMA 15 - 35 [1-10]
            ME 13 - 31 [1-10]
            UVM 12 - 30 [1-10]
            NU 11 - 29 [1-10]
            --- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
            --- Out - 13 (ME) ---

            Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
            BC - @MC, UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
            UNH - PC/@PC, @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
            MC - UMA, BC, @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
            BU - @MEx2, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
            PC - @UNH/UNH, MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
            UML - @UMA/UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
            UMA - @MC, UML/@UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
            ME - @UVM, BUx2, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
            UVM - ME, @NUx2, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
            NU - UVMx2, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU

            OK...

            So thanks to what may turn out to be the biggest snowstorm in Boston-area recorded history, all games in Hockey East tonight have been rescheduled.

            Saturday's only game is in the safe and distant confines of the Gut as Maine faces UVM up in Burlington.

            UMA and MC will have fresh legs (assuming they weren't shoveling) when they play their singleton on Sunday (see below), while UNH and PC will play their Home-and-Home on Sunday afternoon and Wednesday night, with the order flipped.

            Rescheduling for the Beanpot schools is trickier, because their weekend was already altered by the Friday-Monday schedule. Those games have been reset for a week or two out, which will make things interesting during the final push as some teams will be playing three times in a matter of days. In the mean time, while Harvard is still - for now - on tap to face Dartmouth on Saturday, the three HE teams should be otherwise rested and strategically prepped for Monday, while UMA and MC had been slated for two different opponents this weekend (NU and @BU, respectively) and now only face each other,

            In all, the storm moved 22 games from the New England calendars up and down DI through DIII - and that's just the Friday schedule. Including the women's schedules, another 22 were bumped for Saturday. Also lost to the storm was BC's Jerry York Night on tap for Friday, which will now take place some time next season.

            ----
            Back to the math:

            MC beating UNH was required as part of the single scenario that allowed the Home Lock line to be as high as 38. Since that happened on Saturday, that benchmark doesn't move while UNH's Max drops to even with BC's. Meanwhile, MC breaks the tie w/ PC and jumps over BU up into 3rd place - thus keeping their Max a single point behind BC's (and now UNH's). After having developed a strong home ice advantage in recent years, MC's suprisingly average results at home this year have been balanced out because they're finally getting good results away.

            ----
            Also on the upswing, Maine seems to have figured something out of late. After getting only four league points (a win and two ties) in the first semester, they have nine points in their last eight games and seven of eight points from the last two weekends - including a sweep of the first-place Eagles AT Conte. They have climbed out of the cellar into 8th and are within quick striking distance of the slots just above. Along the way, they have - surprisingly for an 8th place team - already earned the tie-breakers against current #1 BC and, perhaps more importantly, current #6 UML.

            Three of their next four weekends are against their other three compatriots in the current bottom four of the league, which is among the most favorable schedules on paper that one could hope for. That could make the final weekend at the Whitt for a pair very interesting for its seeding implications.

            ----
            Maine's other weekend in that "3-of-next-4" span has them hosting a curiously stumbling BU squad that was essentially winning two-of-three in the first semester (including wins over then-#1 BC and then-#1 UNH less than a week apart, and their nominal backup goalie having back-to-back shutouts), but is 3-6-1 since being crushed out in Denver just before New Year's.

            During that 10-game string, BU has been up and down on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they're scoring enough that they've won every game when they've given up 2 or fewer goals, but defensively, that's only happened three times. One remarkably and unusually-common theme is that one of the teams in these games will have a three-goal (or more) lead, but the other might answer with three (or more) of their own.

            Denver won by six.
            BU had two different three-goal leads hosting Harvard (their Monday Consolation opponent), only to have the Crimson come back - ultimately sending the game to OT with three straight in the 3rd and then potting one in the last minute of OT for their 4th in a row and the W.
            BU beat MC by 3.
            NU had a 3-goal lead at Agganis before BU came back to tie with 3 quick ones in less than six minutes in the 3rd - only to have former Terrier Vinny Saponari again beat the terriers in his old home rink.
            UML was up 4-1 before the Terriers closed it to a nail-biter at 4-3.
            PC had only a 2-0 lead before BU scored three straight for a 3-2 final.
            UMA had a 5-0 lead before Ben Rosen made a fantastic one-v-many short-handed play to muscle in BU's only goal. - That was, of course, before he made a more widely known play that led to a goal in the other direction that changed the tone of the early first round Beanpot game. The effort on the former play is more typical of Rosen, but he'll have to work hard to shake the latter from people's memories. (Perhaps someone has Bill Buckner's contact info so he can offer advice?)

            That's seven of the ten games with three-goal leads or responses - or both. In fact, seven 3-plus-goal leads and three 3-plus-goal answers in ten games gives about even odds that you'll see one or the other.

            Ultimately, the trip for the high-but-falling Terriers to Alfond to face the low-but-rising Black Bears could prove to be a defining series for both teams' seasons.

            ----
            Speaking of remarkable numbers, did anyone else look at the box score for Sunday's UML@ME game?

            A 4-3 game with multiple lead changes, but... the two teams were only untied for a total of 6:24 in a game that ran 63:59.

            Of that 6:24, the longest lead was 2-1 UML for 5:30. Other than that, UML had a 3-2 lead for :40 and Maine had their only regulation time lead at 1-0 for a mere fourteen seconds. Their final lead, of course, they had for zero seconds on the clock, but forever on the scoresheet.

            That's a pretty close game, wouldn't you say?
            The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
            cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
            smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
            MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
            Scarlet - What he said.
            brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
            TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
            Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
            David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
            Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

              Since this weekend's schedule is light and nothing much has moved, here's a little more Beanpot trivia:

              Many have discussed how NU broke their 25-year drought against BU in the Beanpot with their win on Monday.

              What many don't remember is that at that time (the '80s), probably the biggest rivalry in the tournament was, arguably, BU and NU - and the Huskies had the upper hand.

              The two squads met in the first round in 1980, '83, '86, and '89. Results? NU 6-5 (OT), NU 4-3, BU 8-5, BU 5-4(OT). Sure, that's a split. Note, for rivalry's sake, that both NU wins came with BU as the reigning champ and both BU wins knocked off NU as reigning champ.

              They also met in the finals in '84, '85, '87, and '88. Results? NU 5-2, NU 4-2, BU 4-3(OT), NU 6-3. A clear 3-1 advantage for NU.

              (They also met once in the '81 consolation game with a BU 9-2 drubbing, but more about consolations in a bit.)

              On a personal note, I began watching the Beanpot in the '80s and was in attendance for each game when the Huskies ran off their three straight wins against BU ('83-'85). When BU took the opening game in 1986, I honestly didn't care about the Terriers facing BC in the final. What mattered was that they finally made it past the Huskies. Let that thought steep in your head for a minute in light of recent history.

              ----
              Here's another NU/BU connection:

              Most Beanpot-minded folks remember that NU won their first title in 1980 (with two OT games, no less). What most don't remember about that year is that - until two years ago - that was Jack Parker's only last place finish as coach or player.

              When BU notched Parker's second 4th ever in 2011 (to Harvard again, after 31 years), NU and BC played again into OT, as they had in 1980. This time, BC came out the victor, but NU was "one bounce away" from breaking another long drought in sync with a Parker squad going 0-2.

              With a BU/Harvard Consolation and a BC/NU Final on tap, break out your crystal balls.

              ----
              A sense of scale:

              BC has certainly stemmed the tide of late on what used to be referred to in the media as the BU Invitational (and some would derisively say that BC stood for Beanpot Consolation).

              Coming into this tourney, in Jerry York's 18 Beanpots as BC head coach, his squads have gone 6-6-6-0. Now, how "Saint" Jerry could be coaching at a Jesuit school with three consecutive sixes on his record is an issue for the theologians. What is of note here is that with all of the success that BC has had in recent years, Jerry has six wins in twelve finals and has only been in the consolation game six times.

              By comparison, in Jack Parker's 39 years behind the bench prior to this tournament, he also has been to only six consolation games (with a record of 4-2).

              That means that for York to be at the same point after 39 years behind the BC Beanpot bench (at which point he'd be nearly 90 and might have an eye on 2000 career wins), he'd have to go 21 straight years without missing a final - and win roughly two-thirds of those finals to boot. This year takes care of one of those finals, result pending. Only two decades more to go.

              ----
              One last one that I haven't seen elsewhere (but admittedly, I've been too busy to read much coverage, so maybe *everyone* has talked about it).

              As I recall, back when Parker, York, Umile, Bertagna, et al. played in college, freshmen weren't allowed to skate in varsity games. That puts Parker, a '68 grad, on the ice for Terriers for the first time in the '65-'66 season. His first Beanpot: 1966.

              For those that delve into the Beanpot numbers, that year will be familiar as a watershed. Prior to that year, BU had won only once (NU: 1980). The BU Seniors when Parker was a freshman never got to hoist the trophy. Parker and his classmates rattled off six straight wins, earned three trophies, and set a new tone for the tournament.

              Over the next 40 years, BU would win nearly 5 out of every 8 tournaments. Eventually, the NCAA let freshmen play. The '80's were undoubtedly the best decade for balance, being the only one where all four schools skated with the 'Pot. However much things changed, there was one constant: BU was seemingly the odds on favorite, at least psychologically, if not on paper. No matter how long the streak or dip, all BU classes since Parker first laced up for the Terriers had one thing in common. All of them had won at least one Beanpot.

              Until now.

              With BC on a three-year run and BU knocked out of this year's final by NU, not only did the Huskies beat BU in the Beanpot for the first time in an incredible 25 years (their last title in 1988), but they also denied the first BU class since the grads of 1965 - almost TWICE that 25 years - from taking home a Beanpot.

              In fact, the only Terrier to win a Beanpot that is still skating in college isn't a Terrier anymore. He's a Husky - and he's playing in the final on Monday night.

              I don't know if that means that Hell has frozen over - like many would have expected at this turn of events - but it sure is snowy outside.
              The reviews keep coming in about Todd's Posts:
              cambam - Now, that Todd. He is not a moron. Wow. Nice.
              smyler3 - It's starting to get buried in this ... silliness, but Todd makes a lot of good points in his post below.
              MAV - Todd... I followed this post all day long, and you're dead on with your thoughts on [this topic] and the whole discussion...
              Scarlet - What he said.
              brick royl - Wow, what a post. :eek
              TA Jen - As always Todd, you make a good point
              Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
              Bob Gray - Very well said Todd.
              Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
              David Manning of the Ridgefield Press - Todd's last post? I laughed, I cried, it was better than Cats!
              Gene Siskel of the Chicago Tribune - In my will, I bequeathed both of my thumbs to Todd's posts with rigor mortis locking them permanently in the "Up" position!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                Good stuff, Todd. Thanks.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                  Bookmarking the thread. Did Hockey East ever answer anyone about the tiebreaker method changing a few years ago?
                  #NewMass

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                    Originally posted by jjmc85 View Post
                    Bookmarking the thread. Did Hockey East ever answer anyone about the tiebreaker method changing a few years ago?
                    I can't speak for anyone else, but my email conversation with them (a few years back) stopped abruptly right after the point where it was clear that they had made the change in interpretation that we discussed at length here. I can't say whether there was a cause and effect, but that did, factually, happen to be the timing.

                    IIRC, I also bumped into Bertagna at a Harvard game at Bright the following season and during our brief conversation, I brought up the subject.

                    Since that time, (again, from memory) the league did not change the letter of the rule (which has remained constant), but I think they tweaked some footer explanation of it somewhere. Maybe in the press release towards the end of the season?

                    Anyway, the summary is that I think our discussion, relayed by me (and perhaps others?) spurred the league to resolve and clarify - the result being that they have solidified on the newer 3-plus-way TB method rather than the old.
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                    • #11
                      Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                      Sorry...

                      I thought I posted the light weekend and mid-week action results, but I guess I wrote them all in my head.

                      In brief, over the next few posts, here's what we had:

                      After Sat 2/9: ME @ UVM

                      --- Home Lock - 38 (BC/UNH/BU/MC) ---
                      --- In - 29 (ME/NU) ---
                      BC 25 - 41 [1-10]
                      UNH 23 - 41 [1-10]
                      MC 22 - 40 [1-10]
                      BU 21 - 39 [1-10]
                      PC 20 - 38 [1-10]
                      UML 18 - 36 [1-10]
                      UMA 15 - 35 [1-10]
                      UVM 14 - 30 [1-10]
                      ME 13 - 29 [1-10]
                      NU 11 - 29 [1-10]
                      --- Home Eligible - 24 (Field) ---
                      --- Out - 14 (UVM) ---

                      Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
                      BC - @MC, UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
                      UNH - PC/@PC, @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
                      MC - UMA, BC, @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
                      BU - @MEx2, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
                      PC - @UNH/UNH, MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
                      UML - @UMA/UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
                      UMA - @MC, UML/@UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
                      UVM - @NUx2, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
                      ME - BUx2, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
                      NU - UVMx2, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU

                      UVM swaps with Maine, at least temporarily, for the last playoff slot. In and Out lines bump a a point closer from each side.
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                      • #12
                        Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                        After Sun 2/10: UMA @ MC, PC @ UNH

                        --- Home Lock - 38 (BC/UNH/BU/MC) ---
                        --- In - 29 (ME/NU) ---
                        BC 25 - 41 [1-10]
                        UNH 24 - 40 [1-10]
                        MC 24 - 40 [1-10]
                        BU 21 - 39 [1-10]
                        PC 21 - 37 [1-10]
                        UML 18 - 36 [1-10]
                        UMA 15 - 33 [1-10]
                        UVM 14 - 30 [1-10]
                        ME 13 - 29 [1-10]
                        NU 11 - 29 [1-10]
                        --- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/PC/UML/Field) ---
                        --- Out - 14 (UVM) ---

                        Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
                        BC - @MC, UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
                        UNH - @PC, @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
                        MC - BC, @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
                        BU - @MEx2, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
                        PC - UNH, MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
                        UML - @UMA/UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
                        UMA - UML/@UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
                        UVM - @NUx2, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
                        ME - BUx2, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
                        NU - UVMx2, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU

                        Merrimack jumps up into a tie with UNH with their win and UNH's tie. The pair is also even in Max, and a point behind BC in both banked and Max points.

                        The tie also draws PC even with BU for the final Home Ice slot, but PC's Max is two below BU's.

                        With MC now joining UNH and BC at or above 24, which is where we have the Home Eligible line, that benchmark really comes down to the interlocking schedule that UML has with BU and PC (who are done with each other), but there are still a couple of other factors, so I'll change the notation a little.

                        The UNH tie soaks up the remaining "free" point floating around in the scenario from a few posts ago that had the Home Lock line as high as 38.
                        In that case, we'd have UNH with a 39 Max and MC, BC, and BU all with a 38 Max. That gives us at least one scenario where it would take 38 points to get Home Ice, so the Home Lock has to be at least 38 - but can't be as high as 39, per above.
                        If we adjust that point away from UNH, all four teams would be at 38 in that specific case, so the HL line stays as is. However, any points lost (outside the interplay of that scenario) by any of those four would necessarily cause a re-calibration to drop that line. Even though PC is tied with BU (and UML is close), consult the prior post for why the schedule dictates that those are the four currently setting the line (which could change).
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                        • #13
                          Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                          After Wed 2/13: UNH @ PC

                          --- Home Lock - 37 (BC/UNH/BU/MC) ---
                          --- In - 29 (ME/NU) ---
                          BC 25 - 41 [1-10]
                          MC 24 - 40 [1-10]
                          UNH 24 - 38 [1-10]
                          PC 23 - 37 [1-10]
                          BU 21 - 39 [1-10]
                          UML 18 - 36 [1-10]
                          UMA 15 - 33 [1-10]
                          UVM 14 - 30 [1-10]
                          ME 13 - 29 [1-10]
                          NU 11 - 29 [1-10]
                          --- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/PC/UML) ---
                          --- Out - 14 (UVM) ---

                          Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
                          BC - @MC, UNH, @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
                          MC - BC, @PC, BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
                          UNH - @BC, @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
                          PC - MC, NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
                          BU - @MEx2, UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
                          UML - @UMA/UMA, @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
                          UMA - UML/@UML, NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
                          UVM - @NUx2, UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
                          ME - BUx2, @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
                          NU - UVMx2, @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU

                          PC takes three of four points from UNH to jump past league-idle BU for the final Home Ice slot. PC is now also only a single point behind UNH and has clinched a 2-0-1 TB.

                          UNH's Max drop below MC's, so I'll drop them to the third slot, even though they are tied on Banked points.

                          With UNH losing points outside the "38" scenario, the Home Lock line drops because that foursome - theoretically now tied at 38 as of Sunday - is out of spare points. In this case, it'll just drop to 37. Simply put, since the "38" scenario had BC beating UNH (when UNH had spare points), if they now tie instead, that drops both to 37.

                          PC adding two to their total also boils the Home Eligible line down to the current 4-5-6 teams. As a reminder, the Home Eligible line demonstrates how low a total one could have and still get Home Ice. In that vein, we let the top three teams run away at this point and focus on fourth.

                          Again, at this point, frequent readers of this thread should be able to follow in their heads: PC at 23, BU at 21, UML at 18. PC and BU are done H2H, but UML has a pair with each remaining. That's eight points. If UML won out, that's 26 points. Clearly, there are points to distribute below that- because we're hypothesizing how low a total we can get here - so...

                          UML and PC: If PC picks up any points, as the leader of the three, that will drive the line higher faster. So let's assume on our first pass that UML sweeps and try locking PC in at 23. That would add 4 to UML and put them at 22.

                          UML and BU: With UML at 22 and BU at 21, this is a pretty common situation around here. We have two ways to hold the line at 24: either a 2/2 split (leaving them at 24/23), or a 1/3 split for BU (making it 23/24). In either case, combined with PC, we have three teams with 24/23/23. However the points actually get distributed among these three, with three other teams (BC, MC, UNH) already at or above 24 the lowest point total one will need for fourth place, and Home Ice is 24.

                          There is enough flexibility in the bottom four that they don't factor in to the Home Eligible line. Not that they can't get there, just that they could distribute points evenly and not force it.

                          In fact, we still don't have anyone that has clinched any places yet, but we're close.

                          Either NU or Maine, with their 29 Maxes, could still win out and take 1st. They play each other for a pair, but could split, leaving both with 27, and still ahead of the rest of the pack.

                          Next up from the bottom, UVM could not only win out for 1st, but has a Max of 30, plays NU twice, and is done with Maine. If NU and Maine were at 27, that could have UVM at 26, which still has all three ahead of the top of the league.

                          UMA has 8 points to spare from their Max (33) to the current leader (BC's 25), but only six points at risk to the teams below (NU, MEx2), so all four of the bottom teams could pass the leaders.

                          And so on.

                          No one has clinched anything. No one is locked out of 1st. No one is safe from 10th. Were getting there, but not yet.
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                          • #14
                            Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                            As noted below, I had written (roughly) the changes after the snow-lightened slate of games prior to this weekend, but apparently only in my head.

                            For the sake of completeness, and some reading to tide you over, I posted three times below what the changes were after last Saturday, Sunday, and Wednesday.

                            I'll post later what the impact was of last night.

                            On the overall front, nothing has been decided coming into the weekend.

                            With four weekends to go, that's usually 16 or fewer points left for each team to grab. Nemo packed a couple of extra games into the final month, so some teams still have 9 games left coming into the weekend. Out of a 27-game league schedule, that's still a third of the season left.

                            Further, since the thread started this year, the standings have only gotten more compact as the middle has risen up to meet the top. In MC's case, they were listed 6th (tied for 5th) in the first post, but took over first last night. Kudos to MC, but you also can't mathematically achieve that in a fortnight unless the top and the middle are pretty close to start with.

                            Anyway... more later. In the meantime, enjoy getting caught up on what happened earlier this week.
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                            Puck Swami - Todd: Good post. I really hadn't thought about [what you said]... Learn something new every day on these boards...
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                            Puck Swami - Todd, a fine post - as we've come to expect from you.
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                            • #15
                              Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

                              http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....tions-analysis
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