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UMLFan
02-18-2013, 10:09 AM
Great job Todd ... as usual.

Jon
02-18-2013, 01:39 PM
We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

(keep up the good work!)

mookie1995
02-18-2013, 01:42 PM
We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

(keep up the good work!)

hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?

goalguard
02-18-2013, 01:48 PM
--- Home Lock - 37 (MC/BC/UNH/BU) ---
MC 27 - 39 [1-8]
BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
--- In - 26 (ME/UMA) ---
UNH 25 - 37 [1-9]
BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
PC 24 - 36 [1-9]
UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 15 - 29 [2-10]
ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
NU 11 - 25 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

Thanks, Todd! This is great.

With six (or seven) RS games yet remaining, have we ever seen a year where 40 points was out of every team's reach so early? A while back UNH finished first with 36 points (15-6-6), but it may take even fewer this time. Going into the last weekend, there still will be wild swings in the standings.

Jon
02-18-2013, 03:00 PM
hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?
Part of me says "no" because I haven't seen a sell out against a team other than BC for a while now,but the game against Merrimack was very well attended and Merrimack doesn't have as many fans who travel as BU does.

Priceless
02-18-2013, 03:34 PM
We need a new category for the record for ties in a HE season. I think PC has a shot at that...

(keep up the good work!)

The record is 8 ties set by the 2006-07 BU Terriers. Providence and Maine both have 6 this season.

ericredaxe
02-18-2013, 03:35 PM
The record is 8 ties set by the 2006-07 BU Terriers. Providence and Maine both have 6 this season.

Hey if they can't score on you, you cant lose! :D

Todd
02-18-2013, 04:46 PM
hey. i hear the coffin is under construction and has limited capacity. i'm guessing y'all will be hosting bu. will tickets be a problem?
Part of me says "no" because I haven't seen a sell out against a team other than BC for a while now,but the game against Merrimack was very well attended and Merrimack doesn't have as many fans who travel as BU does."Sell out" or full building?

The BU game was a sellout, but the building was cavernously empty. In fact, the last three games (BU, UNH, MC) were all listed as sellouts,

The issue is the construction-reduced fire-safety capacity of the Coffin - the literal version of which we would want to avoid (esp. as we hit the 10th anniversary of the Station fire) - which is now only 2089.

True that PC, sadly, hasn't sold well in a while, but a half-empty building is still a sellout until half the fire exits aren't blocked off.

That said, I wouldn't start buying tickets for PC (or anyone) hosting just yet. Currently, PC would be going to Agganis because BU owns the tb.

Other than that, you could use any psychological or mathematically predictive model that you want:

"MC is in 1st place with three weeks to go and has to get passed by FOUR teams to end up on the road? Not gonna happen. They're a lock for Home Ice."
"BC has been here before. They know what to do to close out the RS. Home Ice? I'm looking for them to catch MC and take the RS Title..."
"Are you kidding me? UNH has the easiest remaining schedule on paper, with three of the bottom four teams. There's no way they get caught from behind and they're already in Home Ice position."
"Oh yeah? Well, BU plays a similar three-of-bottom-five, including last place NU (which UNH does not) - but they also have a game-in-hand (vs. MC) and have five of seven at home!"
"All that matters is that UML/UVM controls their own fate because they only face the teams ahead of them in the battle for Home Ice. The Hawks/Cats are going to claw their way into Home Ice - over the bodies of their opponents!"

So what was your rationale for assuming PC would host? Not that they won't, but I wouldn't bet on any one team at this point.

Ultimately, the top six teams are within a five-point range. Way too close to call. Esp. re: PC hosting as they are currently 5th.

mookie1995
02-18-2013, 05:07 PM
So what was your rationale for assuming PC would host? Not that they won't, but I wouldn't bet on any one team at this point..

pc has a 2pt lead, and while they play lowell 2x, they also get nu 2x (which lowell does not).

lowell does have 2 vs mc, and pc has 2 vs bc - so those could be a wash--or a big leap. we'll see ;)

Todd
02-18-2013, 05:19 PM
Hey if they can't score on you, you cant lose! :DIronically, that was the very season that BU disproved (http://www.uscho.com/recaps/2006/12/02/no-7-bc-edges-no-9-bu/) that axiom.

Todd
02-18-2013, 05:27 PM
pc has a 2pt lead, and while they play lowell 2x, they also get nu 2x (which lowell does not).

lowell does have 2 vs mc, and pc has 2 vs bc - so those could be a wash--or a big leap. we'll see ;)PC has a two-point lead on UML, true. But that lead is for 5th v 6th.

BU and PC are currently tied for the final slot at 24 (behind MC, BC, UNH) and BU has the tb.

You're missing a team in there somewhere if you're thinking PC has a lead on hosting.

Playoff seedings as of today:

UMA @ MC
UVM @ BC
UML @ UNH
PC @ BU

Todd
02-18-2013, 05:46 PM
The record is 8 ties set by the 2006-07 BU Terriers. Providence and Maine both have 6 this season.Oh, that year was brutal - or, you know, fun. Six of one, bat to the head (which also happened that year, come to think of it) of the other.

8 ties in the league.
9 overall.
13 OT games in total - which is an entire extra game (an OT game, of course). Good thing OT doesn't count against the NCAA cap.

Remarkably, of those 13 OT games, BU only lost one, and that was on a penalty shot - yes, a PS in OT - on a questionable "dislodging the net" call. That was after BU had failed to convert a PS earlier in the game. That game was part of Dartmouth's holiday tourney, and the other game of the night also had a penalty shot called.

mookie1995
02-18-2013, 05:50 PM
PC has a two-point lead on UML, true. But that lead is for 5th v 6th.

BU and PC are currently tied for the final slot at 24 (behind MC, BC, UNH) and BU has the tb.

You're missing a team in there somewhere if you're thinking PC has a lead on hosting.

Playoff seedings as of today:

UMA @ MC
UVM @ BC
UML @ UNH
PC @ BU

bu was dropping. they have trouble with nu. i hope they split with lowell to help stay ahead of them and finish 5th so i can go to providence.

Todd
02-18-2013, 07:16 PM
Thanks, Todd! This is great.

With six (or seven) RS games yet remaining, have we ever seen a year where 40 points was out of every team's reach so early? A while back UNH finished first with 36 points (15-6-6), but it may take even fewer this time. Going into the last weekend, there still will be wild swings in the standings.Yeah, it's an unusually balanced year.

The year you mention UNH with 36 was 2010. That was the closest top-to-near-bottom race in league history. BC was 2nd with 35 and 3rd-9th was 28-24. 8th place UVM made the NCAAs, but HE only sent 3 teams (also UNH and BC).

Having 3-8 all within four points (and 3-9 within five) is unlikely to be matched - but unlikely doesn't mean impossible.

The tightest 1-4 finish was 2006's 37-34 (which reminds me of the "Cats and dogs living together..." post in one of the early years of this thread where the top four were playing each other and all could reach first, so we had a 5x5 seeding outcomes grid heading into the final weekend (0/4-4/0 split x 0/4-4/0 split), and there was a scenario where BU might be rooting for BC and v.v. on the final night as results shifted.

Wow. That means I've been doing this for at least seven seasons.

Anyway, 2005 had a 1-4 span of 35-31 and 2007 had a 1-4 of 38-33, so those were some close years at the top. (Probably the impetus to start doing this.)

---
Historically, as one might expect, the distribution balances out.

For example, in the years when the league had 9 teams (1994-95 - 2004-05), the team with the most points (using the current scoring method to correct for the 5-3-2-0 shootout points format) had 34, 35, 36x5, 37x2, 38, 39.

(Note: In 1995, BU, with 35 "traditional" points, actually was the 1-seed over Maine, with 36 (both had 88 "shootout" points), but one could assume that the shootout format altered how teams played as the goal-to-achieve changed. However the points were counted, both teams were excellent and ended up meeting in the national final.)

Whether you put 1995 in the 35 or 36 column, that's still a reliable distribution coalescing around 36, maybe 37 points, with a couple of one- and two-point outliers on either side.

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Since moving to 10 teams, we've had 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41x2. Not as predictable on hitting a specific number, but the median of 39, +or-, seems like a good estimate.

Right now, league-leading MC would have to win out to hit that median of 39.

----
Unless someone goes on a tear, it seems likely that we'll have a low (perhaps historically low) total for the top seed, and we might also have a tight top four (or six) finish as we did in the Marches of 05-07.

----
One oddity that I just uncovered:

In the years just discussed (94-95 forward), Hockey East has certainly had its share of successes in the NCAAs, including many multiple appearances in the Frozen Four and in the Final, and winning the NC.

But the teams that were most successful in the end rarely match up with the historically successful teams in the RS.

Looking at the high-end outliers from the 9-team years:
39 was UNH in 1999. While HE won the title that year, it was Maine, who beat UNH in OT in the final.
38 was BU in 1998. BU was the #1 overall seed, but they were upset by UNH in OT at the Regionals. UNH and BC went to the FF where both lost to Michigan, BC in OT in the final.
Even the 37s (UNH in 02, BC in 04) would make it only as far as the FF semis, where they would be knocked off by Maine, who would then lose the final in a one-point nail-biter (the OT loss to MN in MN and the 6x3 finale in a 1-0 final in Boston).

From the 10-team years:
41-point UNH in 2008 beat the RS field by 8 points, but lost by four in the 1st round of the NCAAs to BC's eventual Championship opponent (victim?) Notre Dame.
2011's 41-pointer, BC, met a similar fate, getting scorched by CC, who was up 7-2 at the end of 2 on the way to an 8-4 final - and another four-goal defeat.

None of the historically best point-totalling teams in HE since the 9- (and 10-)team format have gone on to win the title, even though HE has taken seven titles in that time.

----
The only possible exception here is 2009's 40-point BU team - if you can call one point above the median "historic" - who needed a win on the final Sunday of the RS to barely squeeze past NU (39) who was already "in the clubhouse" and had otherwise led wire-to-wire. They also needed some pretty miraculous goings on in a remarkably competitive, game-in-game-out, tournament to take the NC in OT over a stunned, so-close-we-can-taste-it, Miami squad.

(BC's 39-point 2012 team is 39 points in the 10-game alignment, which is the median - as opposed to under the 9-team, which would have been historically high.)

----
Of course, the highest "point" totals were in 95 and 96 when BU had "90" in 96 and BU and Maine each had "88" in 95. As noted, BU and Maine met in the 95 final, but they had a more traditional 35/36, which is actually below the mean.

----
I guess that shows that a strong conference overall better prepares teams throughout the battle-tested regular season, rather than having a runaway and reduced pressure before jumping into the post-season and having to flip a switch.

Even the teams mentioned that did win in the seasons detailed here had close competition (BU/ME 95, ME over UNH 99, BU/NU 09).

Bodes well for whoever comes out of this pile, it seems.

goalguard
02-18-2013, 08:51 PM
Yeah, it's an unusually balanced year. [see the original post for most of the text; I've done edits here]

I guess that shows that a strong conference overall better prepares teams throughout the battle-tested regular season, rather than having a runaway and reduced pressure before jumping into the post-season and having to flip a switch.

Even the teams mentioned that did win in the seasons detailed here had close competition (BU/ME 95, ME over UNH 99, BU/NU 09). Bodes well for whoever comes out of this pile, it seems.

I like your optimism, but if the RS winner only earns 36 points or so--and the rest of the league lags behind--won't those records hurt in the Pairwise? HE may not be sending many teams to the NC$$s, unless a dark-horse gets the autobid for winning the playoffs.

goblue
02-18-2013, 09:47 PM
...
Remarkably, of those 13 OT games, BU only lost one, and that was on a penalty shot - yes, a PS in OT - on a questionable "dislodging the net" call...
BU has "questionable" dislodging the net calls? :eek: Except for Jackie P, who exactly is questioning them? :D

goblue
02-18-2013, 09:56 PM
After Sun 2/17:
UNH 4 @ BC 4 OT
MC 2 @ PC 2 OT

--- Home Lock - 37 (MC/BC/UNH/BU) ---
MC 27 - 39 [1-8]
BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
--- In - 26 (ME/UMA) ---
UNH 25 - 37 [1-9]
BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
PC 24 - 36 [1-9]
UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 15 - 29 [2-10]
ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
NU 11 - 25 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
MC - BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
BC - @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
UNH - @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
BU - UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
PC - NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
UML - @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
UVM - UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
UMA - NU, MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
ME - @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
NU - @UMA, @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


So that's fun.

Four of the top five teams faced off Sunday afternoon and the result was sister-kissing on the level not seen since... Angelina Jolie and her brother got really creepy at that awards show a few years back - unless, of course, you live in , in which case, it was just "Sunday".

By which I mean: both games were ties.

Now the whole group taking a half-step forward might seem like it has little impact, but remember how tightly packed everything is and how fragile all of the benchmarks and seeding ranges are at this point. One point makes a huge difference.

----
Sure, all four teams add one to their banked point totals - but they also all drop one from their respective Maxes.

That means that there are now only four teams capable of reaching the current Home Lock line of 37. Does that mean we have to drop the line, or just drop PC (new Max 36) as a factor from the benchmark?

Simple enough to figure out.

UNH's Max is now 37, so they'd have to win out - but they're done within the group, so that's fine.
BU has one point to play with, so let's give them a tie in their storm-delayed game with MC and otherwise win out to also hit 37.
The tie w/ BU would drop MC's Max even with BC's at 38, giving each one point to spare. The only remaining game within the group is a single MC/BC match. A tie here uses up both spares, but gives both teams 37 after winning out, so we can still have a four-way tie at 37.

That means Home Lock will stay at 37 for now, but any points lost outside this exact scenario will drop it.

----
Since the teams that tied were all adjacent in banked points, we just did analysis on seeding ranges at those totals, and all four moved up one point, much of the day's analysis work is already done.

For example: Coming into the day, MC had clinched at 26, but BC had not at 25. That was because 26 is beyond NU and either ME or UMA also had to fall short of 26. No tbs, just straight-up point counting. So now that BC adds a point to get to 26, they become the second team to clinch a spot. Congrats, Eagles.

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Next up: BC had not clinched at 25 because even though one of UMA/ME had to top out at 25, BC would lose on tbs to ME. Now that UNH has moved to 25, does that apply to them as well, or have they won the tbs and clinched?

Well, neither of their UMA or ME tbs is settled yet, but that just means those games are still to come. Since the scenario demands that UNH lose out to stay at 25, that mandates that they would lose a pair - and the tbs - to both. Therefore, whichever of UMA or ME one sticks at a hypothetical 25, UNH would lose the H2H tb, and - like BC yesterday - could still be 9th.

----
At 23, PC was escaping 10th only by virtue of owning tbs on whatever collection ended up in a three-way tier for 9th in the highest possible current outcome for distributing points to the bottom of the league - which was also 23. Now that they are at 24, they join the other top squads that are beyond tbs and do it on points alone. Same seeding range result, but more straightforward to determine.

----
Since UNH and PC (with idle UML) were part of the group setting the Home Eligible line at 25 with a possible 25/24/24 points distribution, adding a point to each levels that out to 25/25/25. So Home Eligible stays at 25, but it would have to be at least a three-way tie with those three teams.

----
The flip side of UNH and PC moving up one point is that NU was barely hanging on to a chance at Home Ice with the Home Eligible line at 25 and could get there by winning a tb with PC at 25.

The long version is in a separate post to follow, but all that discussion leads to: NU can no longer get a H2H tb w/ PC that would give them Home Ice, but would have to get atop a 4-to-6-way tie - any combination of which, they would lose. NU is iced out of a Home slot.

That said, NU could still take [I]5th place at 25 either on their own or in a tie with BU, PC, or both.

----
With the Home Eligible line scraping by at 25, Maine's 26 Max means they could still be 4th solo and grab Home Ice.

UMA can still get ahead of all but one team (TBD) and grab 2nd, while UVM can still top the field solo.

----
Just for fun:

One notable thing about the possible six-way tie at 25 is that they would be situated such that most would get a similar result - on the road for the QFs. However, the winner of the group would get Home Ice and the loser of the group would be 9th and Out.

Reminds me of the NewsRadio "Big Day" episode (with "The Big Bonus" and "The Shaft").

If you haven't seen it, click here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gVQyfYuExA) for context and my favorite part begins at 3:10 of this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXDcnfne5Kc) chunk - but I am <i>very</i> familiar with the original movie and the Isaac Hayes score.

If you aren't familiar with the movie, you may also be unaware that the Shaft soundtrack (which they are quoting) is the inspiration for the character of "Chef" on South Park, voiced by Isaac Hayes.
Todd, you need a hobby. Or less caffeine. Or a Significant Other. Maybe all three, I dunno.

UNH09
02-19-2013, 02:16 AM
Thanks, Todd! This is great.

With six (or seven) RS games yet remaining, have we ever seen a year where 40 points was out of every team's reach so early? A while back UNH finished first with 36 points (15-6-6), but it may take even fewer this time. Going into the last weekend, there still will be wild swings in the standings.

It was 2010. Please don't remind me of that year, I traveled to Albany to watch a Jekyll and Hyde UNH dismantle Cornell on one night and lose to RIT (by a score of 6-2) to send an AHA team to the Frozen Four. I attempted to drink that one away, and failed.

UML
02-19-2013, 10:45 AM
Todd, you need a hobby. Or less caffeine. Or a Significant Other. Maybe all three, I dunno.
I'm thinking this is his hobby during hockey season. Nothing wrong with it.

MCgrad07
02-19-2013, 10:52 AM
I'm thinking this is his hobby during hockey season. Nothing wrong with it.

Totally Agree