Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Todd does a great job of working with the numbers, but here's another look with some of the same info, some other info, analysis here at http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....ton-university

Jeff -

UNH can clinch home ice with a tie or win Friday night in Durham against Maine.

No.

UNH does not clinch Home Ice with a tie.

While MC cannot reach 32, BC and UML can certainly pass it.

UNH wins the H2H w/ BU, true. But in a 3-way tie at 32 w/ BU/UNH/PC, the RRRs break out this way:

RRRs	BU	UNH	PC	Total
BU:		1-2-0	2-0-1	3-2-1
UNH:	2-1-0		0-2-1	2-3-1
PC:	0-2-1	2-0-1		2-2-2

That would elevate BU to the 3 seed. The UNH/PC H2H would go to PC, who would get 4th. UNH gets 5th.

That one's not even hard. If you don't get the math, that's fine - but you keep posting as fact things that aren't true.

Don't guess - at least without saying it's a guess. It does a disservice to your readers, especially anyone reading a Western College Hockey Blog that, presumably, isn't following the Eastern leagues as closely and is relying on you to do the work. Hell, just link them back to this thread so they know what the correct tbs are. (If you need me to trim a couple of lines here, so your blog readers don't see the stuff in blue, let me know.)

That said, your soft analysis is good (as opposed to the hard numbers) and things like why Bigos is out, or NU playing 10 D and 8 F is really good material. That's insight someone might not get from just the box score.

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Fixed. I wasn't thinking about more than a two-way tie with BU.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Fixed. I wasn't thinking about more than a two-way tie with BU.

Thank you. Or You're Welcome. Whichever you feel is appropriate.

BTW, interesting photo choice here. Not sure it matches the headline.

Unless you think that Parker having a player out with an apparently spontaneously-collapsed lung makes him as happy as getting a career achievement award.

[Tater]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

BTW, interesting photo choice here. Not sure it matches the headline.

Evil Jack Parker.

I don't think I've ever seem him smile that much!

[Spirit of UNH Hockey]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Todd and all, I love this thread and the information and analysis you provide.

From what I can tell, there could still be a four way tie for first place with BC, UML, UNH, and PC at 33 points if UNH splits, PC takes 3 of 4 from UML and BC takes 3 of 4 from UVM.

Or there could be a four way tie for second with BC, PC, UNH, and BU at 32 points.

Or there could be a five way tie for second between the above teams and MC at 31 points.

Oh the madness with 2 games to play!!!

Of course I'm rooting for UNH to get 4 points and for PC to get at least 2. Go UNH!

[unhpuckfan2001]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Todd -

If UNH gets 2 points tonight / this weekend, they clinch home ice?

My work schedule is directly affected by it, so I am asking - hopefully there is a simple and direct question to this! I'm not smart enough to comprehend everything, despite reading all your lengthy and informative posts.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

In (very) brief:

After tonight, everyone has only two points left to move. so...

MC - down by at least three to everyone but BU must gain ground. Everyone that they do not gain on, they cannot catch and another spot slips out of reach. Must pass BU in H2H tie as BU would take that tb.

Best case: UML is already beyond them. MC wins. BC, UNH, PC, BU all lose.

BU: See MC above, but: two points, not three and BU wins H2H tb v PC. Could catch UNH at 31 or 32 if PC is involved in 3-way RR.

BU's Max of 32 is current threshold for Home Ice. Any points that BU drops moves the Home Clinch line down to 31, or 30, if MC also drops points.

UML: Ahead of the pack and only one to have already clinched Home Ice. Anyone that can't catch them after tonight is one seed lower that UML cannot drop. UML is only team that could clinch 1st tonight. Losing both tbs to BC (1-2-0) and UNH (0-3-0), UML would have to be three (or more) points clear at night's end.

BC: Owns all conceivable relevant tb combos. For Eagles, it's all about points.

PC: must stay ahead of BU. Beats UNH and could pull BU above them as well. Ties w/ BC (1-1-1) , but would lose on "wins". Losing tb to UML (0-1-0).

A tie tonight would clinch no better than a 1-1-1 split, then PC loses on "wins". A tie tonight clinches 3rd for UML and keeps PC out of 1st.

UNH: Would clinch Home Ice with a net swing of two points between 'Cats winning them and BU losing them.

[Todd]

Todd and all, I love this thread and the information and analysis you provide.

From what I can tell, there could still be a four way tie for first place with BC, UML, UNH, and PC at 33 points if UNH splits, PC takes 3 of 4 from UML and BC takes 3 of 4 from UVM.

Or there could be a four way tie for second with BC, PC, UNH, and BU at 32 points.

Or there could be a five way tie for second between the above teams and MC at 31 points.

Oh the madness with 2 games to play!!!

Of course I'm rooting for UNH to get 4 points and for PC to get at least 2. Go UNH!

Yes on 33, 32, 31, madness.

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

*sigh*

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Very brief, part deux:

UMA loss or UVM win clinches plyoffs for UVM. UMA wins tb to stay alive if down 2 at end of night.

ME loses tb w/ UVM and UMA. Needs to gain on UVM to have shot to move up. Needs to lead UMA by three to be out of reach.

UVM win keeps them out of reach of both and wraps 7th.
ME win + UMA loss sets 8 (ME) & 9 (UMA).

[Todd]

*sigh*

One month ago from tonight, UMA had 15 points and UML had 18.

If UML is going to lose one weekend every six weeks, wouldn't you want it to be this one?

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

One month ago from tonight, UMA had 15 points and UML had 18.

If UML is going to lose one weekend every six weeks, wouldn't you want it to be this one?

the way it ended up... sure... I know hockey is a rather chancy game... but I want the team to pull it out. A reward for the collective university effort. We got another shot, whether we deserve it or not. Come back tomorrow and earn it.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

For those of you following along with the BU 3-goal weirdness:

We left off after the first UVM game this weekend with 11 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 17 BU games since 12/30/12.

On Saturday, UVM got two quick ones on their first three shots, but BU got their first before UVM got their third. However, with under 2:00 to go in a tight 3-2 game, BU started to pull the goalie when UVM got possession in their own end. BU's Maguire raced back to the crease, but before he could really get set, UVM went five-hole. 4-2. With Maguire on the bench as the clock ticked down, BU held UVM away from the front of the net with the puck, but UVM's Chris McCarthy got a wraparound ENG to make it 5-2 with under :10 left. (Three-goal-lead? Check!). Not the most traditional "empty" net goals you'll see, but they do count on the scoresheet.

New tally: 12 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 18 BU games since 12/30/12.

I don't know what, if anything, it means. Is it a sad thing? A funny thing? It is at least a thing - and that thing won't... stop... happening.

Chinese water torture is also a "thing", right?

BU led NU 4-1 tonight before the 4-2 final.

New tally: 13 three-goal leads and 6 three-goal responses (by either team) in the 19 BU games since 12/30/12.

[jjmc85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Congratulations to the eight teams who earned quarterfinal spots. Good luck in the playoffs.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Congratulations to the eight teams who earned quarterfinal spots. Good luck in the playoffs.

As much as I can appreciate the "only eight make it" vs. "the whole RS is just for seeding" aspect of HE, this is why I won't be too broken up to see it come to an end this season.

Since we're supposed to be going to an all-in format next year, I guess UMA gets the distinction of being the last team ever eliminated from Hockey East playoff contention.