ECAC playoff predictions

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Friday night's games now come into the picture.

Cor 32 - 38 [1-3]
--- Home Lock - 31 () ---
CCT 30 - 36 [1-5]
Har 29 - 39 [1-5]
SLU 25 - 31 [2-6]
Qui 25 - 31 [2-6]
Dar 23 - 29 [4-7]
--- Home Eligible - 25 () ---
RPI 18 - 24 [6-8]
--- In - 18 () ---
Pri 12 - 18 [7-11]
Col 11 - 17 [8-11]
Yal 8 - 16 [8-12]
Bro 8 - 16 [8-12]
--- Out - 12 () ---
Uni 3 - 9 [10-12]


REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: (Yal-?), @Col, (Bro-2/19), SLU, CCT
Cor: Dar, @RPI, @Uni
CCT: Qui, @Dar, @Har
SLU: Pri, @Har, @Dar
Qui: @CCT, @Yal, @Bro
Dar: @Cor, CCT, SLU
RPI: @Bro, Cor, Col
Col: Har, @Uni, @RPI
Pri: @SLU, @Bro, @Yal
Yal: (@Har-?), Uni, Qui, Pri
Bro: RPI, (@Har-2/19), Pri, Qui
Uni: @Yal, Col, Cor

TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro, RPI, Uni
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro, Uni, RPI
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni, SLU
Dar: Pri, Uni, Bro, Yal, Col
RPI: Dar, Uni, Yal
Col: Pri
Pri: Uni
Yal: Col
Bro: Uni
Uni:

Union is officially out of playoff contention. RPI has made the playoffs. Cornell will have home ice.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Harvard-Yale will be the Tuesday after the regular season was supposed to have ended. There is a pretty good chance it won't matter, but that really depends on what the top three do, not what Yale does.

Anyway, on the men's side (and occasionally on the RPI thread), I've posted projected final standings for the ECAC based on KRACH. Here are the most recent projections (through last night's games):

1. Harvard (37.44)
2. Cornell (37.42)
3. Clarkson (34)
4. Quinnipiac (29)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (28)
6. Dartmouth (25)
7. RPI (21)
8. Princeton (15)
=====
9. Colgate (13)
10. Yale (10)
11. Brown (9)
12. Union (5)

(Rounding error: -2)

You might as well call the top two a tie, and for now, Cornell would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins. Aside from that, everything looks like it will stay about the same. Quinnipiac is given the last home spot due to their lucky draw of Yale/Brown for the last weekend. Princeton can't lock up the playoff spot tonight, but they can do it next Friday with a couple of wins and some help.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Harvard-Yale will be the Tuesday after the regular season was supposed to have ended. There is a pretty good chance it won't matter, but that really depends on what the top three do, not what Yale does.

Anyway, on the men's side (and occasionally on the RPI thread), I've posted projected final standings for the ECAC based on KRACH. Here are the most recent projections (through last night's games):

1. Harvard (37.44)
2. Cornell (37.42)
3. Clarkson (34)
4. Quinnipiac (29)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (28)
6. Dartmouth (25)
7. RPI (21)
8. Princeton (15)
=====
9. Colgate (13)
10. Yale (10)
11. Brown (9)
12. Union (5)

(Rounding error: -2)

You might as well call the top two a tie, and for now, Cornell would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins. Aside from that, everything looks like it will stay about the same. Quinnipiac is given the last home spot due to their lucky draw of Yale/Brown for the last weekend. Princeton can't lock up the playoff spot tonight, but they can do it next Friday with a couple of wins and some help.

That top two should be the explanation for you as to why the Harvard/Yale game would matter.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Saturday's update.

Cor 33 - 37 [1-3]
CCT 32 - 36 [1-3]
Har 31 - 39 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 30 () ---
SLU 27 - 31 [3-6]
Qui 25 - 29 [4-6]
Dar 24 - 28 [4-6]
--- Home Eligible - 27 () ---
RPI 18 - 22 [7]
--- In - 16 () ---
Pri 12 - 16 [8-11]
Col 11 - 15 [8-11]
Bro 10 - 16 [8-11]
Yal 9 - 15 [8-11]
--- Out - 12 () ---
Uni 4 - 8 [12]


REMAINING SCHEDULE:
Har: (Bro-2/19), SLU, CCT, (Yal-2/26)
Cor: @RPI, @Uni
CCT: @Dar, @Har
SLU: @Har, @Dar
Qui: @Yal, @Bro
Dar: CCT, SLU
RPI: Cor, Col
Col: @Uni, @RPI
Pri: @Bro, @Yal
Yal: Qui, Pri, (@Har-2/26)
Bro: (@Har-2/19), Pri, Qui
Uni: Col, Cor

RELEVANT TIEBREAKS OWNED:
Har: Qui, Dar, RPI, Pri, Uni
Cor: SLU, Col, Yal, Bro
CCT: Yal, Bro, RPI, Uni, Qui
SLU: Col, Yal, Bro, Uni, RPI, Pri
Qui: RPI, Pri, Uni, SLU
Dar: Pri, Uni, Bro, Yal, Col
RPI: Dar, Uni, Yal
Col: Pri
Pri: Uni
Yal: Col
Bro: Uni
Uni:

Placement has been determined for the capital district teams, and two more teams are guaranteed home ice in the quarterfinals. It's a real dogfight between four teams for one spot.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Wow, what chaos it is to figure out who's No. 1 seed if Cornell and Harvard were to tie at 18-3-1. (That's Cornell sweeping RPI/Union and Harvard going 3-1 in its last 4, likely losing to SLU or Clarkson.)

It then ends up mattering a lot who the 4th place team is, and which team Harvard loses to.

So here are their results so far:
vs. Clarkson: Harvard 0-1, Cornell 1-1
4th Candidates
vs. Quinnipiac: Harvard 2-0, Cornell 1-1
vs. Dartmouth: both 1-0-1
vs. SLU: Harvard 1-0, Cornell 2-0

Counterintuitively, it's better for Harvard to lose to Clarkson than SLU, at least for ECAC purposes.

Suppose Harvard beats SLU and loses to Clarkson. Than Quinnipiac is likely sweeping Brown/Yale to move into 4th (Qpac wins H2H tiebreaker with SLU). Then both Harvard and Cornell are 3-3 against the top 4. Record vs. top 8 is also the same. Goal differential H2H is the same. We're then down to the 5th tiebreaker, goal differential vs. top 4!!! I'll work that out in a sec.

Goal D so far:
vs. Clarkson: Harvard 1-3, Cornell 4-3
vs. Qpac: Harvard 6-0, Cornell 5-7
So Harvard would be winning that last tiebreaker, unless Clarkson wins by 5 goals.

Now if Harvard beats Clarkson and loses to SLU, then SLU is possibly 4th with a win or tie vs. Dartmouth or Qpac losing a point to Brown or Yale. But if Quinnipiac is 4th, then it's Harvard winning the tiebreaker.

So to summarize:

If Harvard loses to Clarkson beats SLU, and both Harvard & Cornell win out otherwise, and Quinnipiac sweeps Brown and Yale, then Harvard is No. 1 (barring a 5-goal loss to Clarkson.) If instead Qpac loses more points to Brown and Yale than SLU loses to Dartmouth, then Cornell is No. 1.

If Harvard loses to SLU and beats Clarkson, and both Harvard & Cornell win out otherwise, then Cornell is No. 1 if SLU finishes 4th (can be achieved by taking a point at Dartmouth or by Quinnipiac losing a point vs. Brown/Yale), but Harvard is No. 1 if Quinnipiac finishes 4th (Qpac sweeps Brown/Yale, SLU loses to Dartmouth).

[Stat Man]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

So who owns the tiebreak between Cornell and Harvard?

[papulaisle]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

For me- still working with a slide rule here, seems a, 'no-brainier'. Harvard has four remaining games...thus a chance to pick up eight (8) points. Have thirty-one points right now...Win all four, can't be beaten, tied (although Cornell, with thirty-three points, said tonight after Dartmouth tie, at least they were, "assured of regular season tie") (despite their having only two remaining games). Tilt. Two also remaining for CCT (with thirty-two points).

I'm betting on Crimson (or is there something I don't know)?

Slight error...see upon further investigation (at Cornell web site) they say are assured of tie of Ivy League, with which even working with an abacus, I can concur.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

So who owns the tiebreak between Cornell and Harvard?

It was a split. Comes down to ECAC wins, then record vs. top 4.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

It was a split. Comes down to ECAC wins, then record vs. top 4.

And could even come down to goal differential vs top 4 under a highly plausible scenario: both win out except Harvard loses to Clarkson, and Qpac wins out.

[OnMAA]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

Harvard-Yale will be the Tuesday after the regular season was supposed to have ended. There is a pretty good chance it won't matter, but that really depends on what the top three do, not what Yale does.

After this weekend's results, I'd suggest this game might matter a great deal.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

After this weekend's results, I'd suggest this game might matter a great deal.

The Yale game is must-win for Harvard's Ivy title chances, regardless of the ECAC standings. For the game to be meaningless in the Ivy standings, Harvard would have to fail to beat Brown Tuesday.

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

The Yale game is must-win for Harvard's Ivy title chances, regardless of the ECAC standings. For the game to be meaningless in the Ivy standings, Harvard would have to fail to beat Brown Tuesday.

If Harvard beats Brown, we will have five clear tiers in the ECAC: 1-3, 4-6 fighting for that last home slot, RPI, 8-11 fighting for that last playoff slot, and Union.

[Skate79]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

The Yale game is must-win for Harvard's Ivy title chances, regardless of the ECAC standings. For the game to be meaningless in the Ivy standings, Harvard would have to fail to beat Brown Tuesday.

One thing to consider is the impact of last week's storm. Had the game been played as scheduled, Yale would have been playing for something, namely a playoff spot. Come Tuesday the 26th, they may have nothing to play for based on what happens next weekend. Other than to ruin Harvard's chances of finishing first both in the Ivies and the ECAC. Still the incentive is quite a bit less if you know that you aren't playing beyond the 26th.

[lugnut92]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

New women's projections (numbers bolded for teams locked in position):

1. Harvard (38)
2. Cornell (37)
3. Clarkson (34)
4. Quinnipiac (28.539)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (28.537)
6. Dartmouth (26)
7. RPI (19)
8. Princeton (15)
=====
9. Colgate (13)
10. Brown (11)
11. Yale (10)
12. Union (5)

(Rounding error: +2)

So yeah, Harvard's game against Yale will probably matter, potentially on both ends of the standings. Quinnipiac and SLU are in a dead heat for the last home-ice spot, but the Bobcats have the travel pair in the league to face and SLU has the toughest. That said, any combination of SLU winning and Q losing 3 points gives SLU 4th. Dartmouth can still claim 4th, but they would need to win out and get help from Harvard and Yale or Brown.
The race for 8th is a little tougher to work out, but should become a little clearer when Brown's game in hand is worked out.

[dave1381]

Re: ECAC playoff predictions

One thing to consider is the impact of last week's storm. Had the game been played as scheduled, Yale would have been playing for something, namely a playoff spot. Come Tuesday the 26th, they may have nothing to play for based on what happens next weekend. Other than to ruin Harvard's chances of finishing first both in the Ivies and the ECAC. Still the incentive is quite a bit less if you know that you aren't playing beyond the 26th.

I don't know, it can go both ways. Some teams will embrace the spoiler role and come out like it's their championship game even if their season will end.