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Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread
Here are some thoughts on where things stand beyond what's obvious from the PWR. I'll consider some "creative" interpretations of the criterion, even though my impression was creative interpretations were being discouraged in the offseason. (Specifically, my impression is that the committee tended to reward conference postseason titles last season when things were close and criteria conflicted, even though conference postseason titles aren't officially a criterion.)
So in terms of how the committee ranks the teams, I think it's pretty much set
8. Northeastern/N.Dakota, 7. Mercyhurst, 6. Clarkson
There would be some creative arguments within the bounds of the criteria for pushing North Dakota up to 6 if they were to upset Minnesota, but I think UND just loses too many criteria even in that case. (If UND were elevated to 6 with such a win, you might as well through the whole system and admit Wisconsin to the tournament too.)
For the top 5, I'd say Cornell > BC is pretty much locked in now, and I don't see anyway that Cornell > Harvard and BC > Harvard aren't also locked in, barring some creativity.
So I'd expect the following:
Cornell, BU win: 2) Cornell 3) BU 4) BC 5) Harvard
Cornell, NU win: 2) Cornell 3) BC 4) BU 5) Harvard
Harvard, BU win: 2) BU 3) Cornell, 4) BC 5) Harvard
Harvard, NU win: 2) Cornell, 3) BC 4) Harvard 5) BC
Tough for Harvard to still end up at 5 with an ECAC title if BU wins, but I think there's just enough distance from Cornell and BC to prevent Harvard from passing them.
And yeah, Minnesota #1. You heard it hear... last.
As for flights, yes, the standard bracket minimizes flights so I doubt you'll see a deviation from that. If UND is #8, I would like for the current committee to be more like the 2007 committee and decide that a UND-Minnesota QF is lousy for the sport, esp. with the Frozen Four in Minnesota, and send UND to the East... but nothing that's happened since 2008 leads me to believe that'll happen.
Here are some thoughts on where things stand beyond what's obvious from the PWR. I'll consider some "creative" interpretations of the criterion, even though my impression was creative interpretations were being discouraged in the offseason. (Specifically, my impression is that the committee tended to reward conference postseason titles last season when things were close and criteria conflicted, even though conference postseason titles aren't officially a criterion.)
So in terms of how the committee ranks the teams, I think it's pretty much set
8. Northeastern/N.Dakota, 7. Mercyhurst, 6. Clarkson
There would be some creative arguments within the bounds of the criteria for pushing North Dakota up to 6 if they were to upset Minnesota, but I think UND just loses too many criteria even in that case. (If UND were elevated to 6 with such a win, you might as well through the whole system and admit Wisconsin to the tournament too.)
For the top 5, I'd say Cornell > BC is pretty much locked in now, and I don't see anyway that Cornell > Harvard and BC > Harvard aren't also locked in, barring some creativity.
So I'd expect the following:
Cornell, BU win: 2) Cornell 3) BU 4) BC 5) Harvard
Cornell, NU win: 2) Cornell 3) BC 4) BU 5) Harvard
Harvard, BU win: 2) BU 3) Cornell, 4) BC 5) Harvard
Harvard, NU win: 2) Cornell, 3) BC 4) Harvard 5) BC
Tough for Harvard to still end up at 5 with an ECAC title if BU wins, but I think there's just enough distance from Cornell and BC to prevent Harvard from passing them.
And yeah, Minnesota #1. You heard it hear... last.
As for flights, yes, the standard bracket minimizes flights so I doubt you'll see a deviation from that. If UND is #8, I would like for the current committee to be more like the 2007 committee and decide that a UND-Minnesota QF is lousy for the sport, esp. with the Frozen Four in Minnesota, and send UND to the East... but nothing that's happened since 2008 leads me to believe that'll happen.
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