Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

[SCSU Euro]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Maybe this team did peak too soon. Hope not.

I honestly am not trying to start anything, but when did they peak? They've been a very good team all year, but not great. When did they peak? When they swept.... Vermont?

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

They've had months to get their mind right for the regular season and have failed. They're not going to get it right in the playoffs. It just not going to happen.

I tend to agree with you. I've been looking at series sweeps as a independent variable that correlates with the construct "consistency". Can consistency demonstrated in regular season sweeps predict postseason placement? Statistically, WCHA and overall mean sweeps turns out to be a fairly valid performance metric and predictor variable of postseason success, as well as WCHA regular season championships.

I'll use DU and MN here as examples since both combined provide a small, but reasonable sample size of F5 and NCAA championships to provide a fairly valid assessment of predicting postseason play.

Mean overall regular season (RS) sweeps (1999-2012): DU - 4.92 / Gophers – 5.77
Mean WCHA sweeps (1999-2012): DU - 4.42 / Gophers – 4.84
2011-12: 8 overall sweeps, 7 WCHA sweeps. WCHA RS championship/3rd place NCAAs

The Gophers currently have 3 overall sweeps (MSU, VT, UAA) including 1 WCHA sweep. If they sweep BSU, that's 2 WCHA sweeps and 4 overall. By contrast, DU has 5 overall sweeps and 4 WCHA thus far.

The mean WCHA sweeps for DU (3x) and Gophers (3x) as Final Five champions (1999-2012) = 5.83. I won't take the time to determine the standard deviation for more accuracy, but 5.8 or 6 WCHA sweeps for a sample size of six F5 champions is valid enough for purposes here for a population estimate. The same can be done for mean sweeps for DU (2x) and Gophers (2x) as NCAA Champions (1999-2012) – 5.5 (overall), 4.5 (WCHA).

Obviously, there can always be exceptions (as a Gopher fan I hope this is the year ) and there also are inherent limitations in this little study. But based at least upon these numbers, the Gophers will most likely have an early exit from the F5 and the NCAAs.

WCHA RS sweeps so far for top 7 WCHA teams: UNO-5, MSUM-5, SCSU-4, DU-4, UW-3, UND-2, UMN-1
Overall sweeps so far for top 7 WCHA teams: UNO-6, MSUM-6, SCSU-5, DU-5, UW-4, UND-3, UMN-3

[GopherBigGuy911]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

He probably won't, but not a bad idea. This team certainly deserves it. Sounds like Lucia was pretty hot post game.

http://www.startribune.com/video/194.../video/1/hpmrt Here is video of Lucia.... and Roman

[5mn_Major]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

The reason posters are acting a bit odd is that it was the worst game of the year for the Gophers. The Gophers almost never get boo'd.

Having said that, it doesn't mean that the Gophs are done by any stretch. They've got to make another step tho or it will be a short season.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

How does the BTN generate money for hockey schools? It's a myth.

A myth?? That's ridiculous. B1G schools that do not participate in Big Ten events do not receive the full share of aggregate revenue distribution from the Big Ten and BTN. This was the case for Nebraska football for the 2011-12 fiscal year. They received approximately $10.6M less than the other 11 participating Big Ten schools ($24.6M each) in their annual distribution.

B1G schools that do not have hockey programs will also be ineligible to receive a full share of the Big Ten and BTN aggregate revenue distribution. The added BTHC revenue from advertisement, TV contracts and tournaments will only be provided to those schools in the BTHC. That's why it's financially advantageous for other Big Ten schools to join the BTHC.

Yes, advertisement on the BTN is quite a lucrative cash cow and is actually the largest revenue generating stream for the BTN. Roughly 60% of all BTN revenue is derived from advertising and ad revenue dramatically increased by 30% in 2011.

[jimmie2dog]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Condon on the wing is a waste. That has been obvious. Three quarterbacks on defense is great for all star games but not so much for grinding out late season wins.

[Tipsy McStagger]

A myth?? That's ridiculous. B1G schools that do not participate in Big Ten events do not receive the full share of aggregate revenue distribution from the Big Ten and BTN. This was the case for Nebraska football for the 2011-12 fiscal year. They received approximately $10.6M less than the other 11 participating Big Ten schools ($24.6M each) in their annual distribution.

B1G schools that do not have hockey programs will also be ineligible to receive a full share of the Big Ten and BTN aggregate revenue distribution. The added BTHC revenue from advertisement, TV contracts and tournaments will only be provided to those schools in the BTHC. That's why it's financially advantageous for other Big Ten schools to join the BTHC.

Yes, advertisement on the BTN is quite a lucrative cash cow and is actually the largest revenue generating stream for the BTN. Roughly 60% of all BTN revenue is derived from advertising and ad revenue dramatically increased by 30% in 2011.

But people aren't going to pay anywhere near the amount they pay during a football game to advertise during a hockey game. If a football game draws 10x as many viewers, then the advertising during a hockey game would draw significantly less revenue. So the added revenue for hockey might be negligible.

[4four4]

But people aren't going to pay anywhere near the amount they pay during a football game to advertise during a hockey game. If a football game draws 10x as many viewers, then the advertising during a hockey game would draw significantly less revenue. So the added revenue for hockey might be negligible.

Pure and simple it's to add programming to the BTN. They would rather have more live events than indoor track.

[Tipsy McStagger]

Pure and simple it's to add programming to the BTN. They would rather have more live events than indoor track.

I believe that, but there isn't going to be a windfall because of it that would cause other schools to start hockey programs.

[4four4]

I believe that, but there isn't going to be a windfall because of it that would cause other schools to start hockey programs.

I can only see Rutgers and Maryland starting up hockey and maybe UNC when they join the BiG not Nebraska or even Illinois. It's hard to say but they need money if not they will not waste their time.

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

But people aren't going to pay anywhere near the amount they pay during a football game to advertise during a hockey game. If a football game draws 10x as many viewers, then the advertising during a hockey game would draw significantly less revenue. So the added revenue for hockey might be negligible.

Negligible would be an upgrade. A few years ago, I remember doing some research on the public institutions to see who made money on hockey. The list was very short. Maybe 10 teams total. The Gophers were one of them. Wisky was burning about $3 million a year between the men's and women's teams.

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Well I have come out of the low enough to post now. Disappointed doesn't come close to how I feel about the way this team played last night, or how they've looked for long stretches in many of the recent series. Yes, they are still probably the most talent-laden program in the country. Obviously though, that doesn't do much when there is little effort to go with it. When they were playing their best after x-mas, they were winning every race and every battle, it seemed. Now half the team on every play is willing to wait for the opponent, or someone else on their team to make the first move. The play where the Denver player was allowed to step between two defenders and go in on Wilcox, when either one of them could have taken the puck away was classic.

And I thought Bjugs was starting towards making the move to power forward, but he stepped back last night. There was one play where he carried the puck in, essentially alone, but stepped around a couple. He had a couple D in front of him, but not in a position where it was guaranteed they could stop him. So as he has done almost all year, he loops back and passes to someone along the boards back near the blue line, and nothing develops. He seems to do this every game. For 9 of 10 players, it is a good move to make, in that at least you maintain possession while you wait for the rest of the team to show up. But when you have the size and skills he has, and your team needs to get energized, he needs to go to the net. Sure the odds are against scoring, but probably not any less than dropping it back when outnumbered 4 - 2. And just creating a chance can get eh crowd and team fired up. Players like Goudreau are who they are because they recognize they aren't just another player, but need to take the team on their backs and will something to happen. Nothing like a highlight reel goal to turn a game. And I think if he did this from time to time all season, he'd have half again as many goals and would right there as a favorite for Hobey. He's gonna need to play with that edge if he wants to be a force in the NHL, but if he can't do it against college players, he'll have a lot of trouble at that level. And don't get me wrong, I love watching him and having him on the team. But he seems to mirror this team (or vice versa). All the skill and ability in the world, but under-performing because only focusing on skill game.

(So, to make this post too long for anyone to read....) Teams can't just turn it on and off. Momentum is huge in hockey. Even in the NHL with long series, it matters, and in a one-and-done college scenario, it is the primary determiner of who wins it all. Those who say 'they are fine and have plenty of talent' I don't think realize how difficult it is to get up to that level. Yes, with less talented teams there is less margin for error, so the Gophs are in good shape in that they don't necessarily have to be firing on every single cylinder to win some games, but they barely were firing at all last night. I wanted to see a McNaughton Race. People say NC's are all that matter, but I disagree. I've been watching for decades, and you need to savor every win and every trophy. The most talented team is far from guarenteed an NC. They can be a long time in coming. If that is all that matters to you, be prepared to get depressed at the end of just about every season. Furthermore, this team, if they could have sustained the play they had after x-mas, had the potential to get multiple, if not all three, trophies in the last year in the WCHA. But that is gone, not because they played more talented teams, or teams that played games above their level, but because the Gophs played below their level in a number of games. Denver is a good team with lots of offensive talent, but the Gophs playing their best should beat them by 3, not get shut out. And I'm not saying they should be written off, I'm not that far gone, but time is running out to get on track.

(Enough of the therapy. If they don't lose again this year season, then I'll be happy. Oh, and looked at the last page of the Q thread and they seem to be experiencing a similar situation - declining offense, lackluster stretches of disjointed hockey, with some concern about peaking early.)

[Slap Shot]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

I honestly am not trying to start anything, but when did they peak? They've been a very good team all year, but not great. When did they peak? When they swept.... Vermont?

Did Tipsy steal your login? They went 17-3-5 or .800 through Jan 19 including an 11-1-3 stretch at the end of it. Since Jan 19 they are 4-4-2. Pretty glaring difference.

[Rtn2GoldCountry]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

I'll take last year's Gophers to beat this year's Gophers just as badly as they beat last year's UND team in the regional final. What a fricken joke. A bunch of individuals trying to win a team game by themselves.

[GopherBigGuy911]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Amen - all my thoughts but expressed clearly and concisely and not so much anger as I had last night. Thank you Koho