Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

He wrote it like he's quoting or at least paraphrasing Lucia so it may not be sensationalistic at all.

Good observation and you're exactly right he was essentially paraphrasing Lucia:

Lucia said the Gophers have the ability to win every game they play and they have been in every game, but now they have to take the next step. "You are not going to win a league title, if you are not going to win two games on a weekend."

According to historical trend, tDon is absolutely correct and speaking from experience. Series sweeps seems to be a critical independent variable in terms of winning WCHA championships and high postseason placement. The mean number of "overall" sweeps over the past 13 seasons is approximately 6 (5.77) and for the "WCHA" the mean score on sweeps is approximately 5 (4.84). No Gopher team has dropped below the WCHA sweep mean of 5 and won the Mac; and when the Gophers compile at least 8-9 overall sweeps and average 7 WCHA regular season sweeps, they've won the Mac. The only Gopher team to equal or surpass the mean score on overall and WCHA series sweeps and not take home regular or postseason hardware or place at least 3rd in the NCAAs is the 2000-01 season...Lucia's second year of his tenure as Gopher head coach.

The only exception that violates the "sweep hypothesis" is the 2002-03 NCAA championship team which dropped one sweep below the mean on overall (5) and WCHA sweeps (4).

Unfortunately, the harsh reality this season is, even though the Gophers were dealt a light SOS, they have yet to match preseason expectations or the historical trend of most Gopher championship teams in numbers of weekend series sweeps.

Don Lucia years: Overall Series Sweeps - (WCHA sweeps, * - WCHA regular season champs) - Postseason placement:

1999-00: 4 (4) (UMD-2, DU, MTU)
2000-01: 7 (7) (UMD, UW, SCSU, UAA, MTU, MSUM, CC) - NCAAs
2001-02: 7 (5) (BSU, Colgate, MSUM, UMD, UND, UW, SCSU) - NCAA Champions
2002-03: 5 (4) (Alabama-Huntsville, MTU, UW, UAA, UW) - Final Five and NCAA Champions
2003-04: 7 (6) (MTU, CC, MSUM, UW, BSU, UAA, SCSU) - Final Five Champions and NCAAs
2004-05: 6 (6) (MSUM-2, UW, SCSU-2, MTU) - 3rd place NCAAs
2005-06: 9 (8*) (MSUM, UAA, UND, Niagra, CC, UW, DU, UAA, UMD) - NCAAs
2006-07: 9 (7*) (Wayne State, OSU, CC, UMD, UW, MTU, MSUM, UAA, CC) - Final Five Champions and NCAAs
2007-08: 3 (1) (OSU, MSUM, Wayne State) - NCAAs
2008-09: 2 (2) (SCSU-2)
2009-10: 4 (3) (UAA, MTU, Harvard, CC)
2010-11: 4 (3) (UMass, CC, MTU-2)
2011-12: 8 (7*) (Sacred Heart, UMD, UAA, UND, MSUM, SCSU, BSU, UNO) - 3rd place NCAAs
2012-13: 3 (1) (MSU, VT, UAA) [Final upcoming series - UMD, DU, BSU]

TOTAL SWEEPS - WCHA TEAM (14 seasons, inc. 2012-13 so far)

9 - MSUM, MTU, UAA, UW
8 - SCSU
7 - UMD, CC
3 - UND
2 - DU
1 - UNO, BSU (2 before WCHA)

[mnstate0fhockey]

Good observation and you're exactly right he was essentially paraphrasing Lucia:



According to historical trend, tDon is absolutely correct and speaking from experience. Series sweeps seems to be a critical independent variable in terms of winning WCHA championships and high postseason placement. The mean number of "overall" sweeps over the past 13 seasons is approximately 6 (5.77) and for the "WCHA" the mean score on sweeps is approximately 5 (4.84). No Gopher team has dropped below the WCHA sweep mean of 5 and won the Mac; and when the Gophers compile at least 8-9 overall sweeps and average 7 WCHA regular season sweeps, they've won the Mac. The only Gopher team to equal or surpass the mean score on overall and WCHA series sweeps and not take home regular or postseason hardware or place at least 3rd in the NCAAs is the 2000-01 season...Lucia's second year of his tenure as Gopher head coach.

The only exception that violates the "sweep hypothesis" is the 2002-03 NCAA championship team which dropped one sweep below the mean on overall (5) and WCHA sweeps (4).

Unfortunately, the harsh reality this season is, even though the Gophers were dealt a light SOS, they have yet to match preseason expectations or the historical trend of most Gopher championship teams in numbers of weekend series sweeps.

Don Lucia years: Overall Series Sweeps - (WCHA sweeps, * - WCHA regular season champs) - Postseason placement:

1999-00: 4 (4) (UMD-2, DU, MTU)
2000-01: 7 (7) (UMD, UW, SCSU, UAA, MTU, MSUM, CC) - NCAAs
2001-02: 7 (5) (BSU, Colgate, MSUM, UMD, UND, UW, SCSU) - NCAA Champions
2002-03: 5 (4) (Alabama-Huntsville, MTU, UW, UAA, UW) - Final Five and NCAA Champions
2003-04: 7 (6) (MTU, CC, MSUM, UW, BSU, UAA, SCSU) - Final Five Champions and NCAAs
2004-05: 6 (6) (MSUM-2, UW, SCSU-2, MTU) - 3rd place NCAAs
2005-06: 9 (8*) (MSUM, UAA, UND, Niagra, CC, UW, DU, UAA, UMD) - NCAAs
2006-07: 9 (7*) (Wayne State, OSU, CC, UMD, UW, MTU, MSUM, UAA, CC) - Final Five Champions and NCAAs
2007-08: 3 (1) (OSU, MSUM, Wayne State) - NCAAs
2008-09: 2 (2) (SCSU-2)
2009-10: 4 (3) (UAA, MTU, Harvard, CC)
2010-11: 4 (3) (UMass, CC, MTU-2)
2011-12: 8 (7*) (Sacred Heart, UMD, UAA, UND, MSUM, SCSU, BSU, UNO) - 3rd place NCAAs
2012-13: 3 (1) (MSU, VT, UAA) [Final upcoming series - UMD, DU, BSU]

TOTAL SWEEPS - WCHA TEAM (14 seasons, inc. 2012-13 so far)

9 - MSUM, MTU, UAA, UW
8 - SCSU
7 - UMD, CC
3 - UND
2 - DU
1 - UNO, BSU (2 before WCHA)

Interesting stuff. Still think the word "amazed" was a bit over-the-top, but this context certainly sheds a different light on the situation. Thanks for putting this together Harley.

[Biddco]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Winning the Mac is obviously a long shot for the Gophers, but with the extreme parity this season in the WCHA...anything can happen.

You sound like me at about this time last year.

[Goon]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Of course the biggest UND apologist on the planet felt overwhelmingly compelled to comment on the situation and chastise Gopher fans.

Click Here For Uber Derp

I mean, it's not like the Gophers got screwed by the refs like UND does in every loss they ever take. There isn't enough space for all the that this warrants.

Hey Slappy, didn't you swear off posting on USCHO? You seem to be doing a lot of posting here.

[SanTropez]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Winning the Mac is obviously a long shot for the Gophers, but with the extreme parity this season in the WCHA...anything can happen.

Good point.

If CC can step it up at home and even split with Jan Brady U,I like to think we will will only be down 1pt going into the Denver series at home. Then it's on.

[gopher wes]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Good point.

If CC can step it up at home and even split with Jan Brady U,I like to think we will will only be down 1pt going into the Denver series at home. Then it's on.

Denver is the one that worries me. Those boys just don't get swept very often.

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Denver is the one that worries me. Those boys just don't get swept very often.

And they own us lately. It has seemed that way, anyway.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Interesting stuff. Still think the word "amazed" was a bit over-the-top, but this context certainly sheds a different light on the situation. Thanks for putting this together Harley.

Thanks...sweeping the next three opponents is not only essential as a last ditch effort for the Mac, it's a fairly relevant performance metric of their playoff readiness as well. They need to be demonstrating some peak performances now. I hate to admit it, but I'm not sure how deep this team can go if they can't sweep at least 2 of the final three series.

You sound like me at about this time last year.

Judging by the point spread, I think the parity is even more ridiculously tighter this year. 6 pts. separating the top 7 teams with three weeks left. Playoff hockey starts this weekend.

Good point.

If CC can step it up at home and even split with Jan Brady U,I like to think we will will only be down 1pt going into the Denver series at home. Then it's on.

I agree, a sweep of UMD is a MUST, not an option now. Meeting UMD after they've gone winless in their last 6 games will make a series sweep a little tougher though.

[Biddco]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Judging by the point spread, I think the parity is even more ridiculously tighter this year. 6 pts. separating the top 7 teams with three weeks left. Playoff hockey starts this weekend.

That is definitely true. The WCHA is much tighter this year than last year.

[gopher wes]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

And they own us lately. It has seemed that way, anyway.

Yeah, there was the sweep at DU last year that almost ended up being a season killer for the Gophers. Split at home the year before that and DU took all four games in the 09-10 season. So yeah, DU kinda has the Gophers number of late.

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Zach Budish on finishing the season strong.

"It seems like we play a really solid game one night, and the next we drop off," said Budish, the Gophers' sixth-leading scorer with 10 goals and 16 assists. "We've had good weeks of practice leading up to Friday games, and we've won the last couple of Fridays. On Saturdays, maybe we didn't have the same intensity or preparation during the day. ... We have to make sure that focus and intensity is there every day.''

[Steve_MN]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Zach Budish on finishing the season strong.

"It seems like we play a really solid game one night, and the next we drop off," said Budish, the Gophers' sixth-leading scorer with 10 goals and 16 assists. "We've had good weeks of practice leading up to Friday games, and we've won the last couple of Fridays. On Saturdays, maybe we didn't have the same intensity or preparation during the day. ... We have to make sure that focus and intensity is there every day.''

Well, from my perspective, this seems like as good an explanation of what I've seen on the ice the past couple months as anything I'd have been able to come up with on my own. Hoping that the fact that he's recognizing this, and talking openly about it, means that they're going to get past this.

Although, going back a few weeks, they certainly came out strong on Saturday at 'Kato. But yes, they need to put TWO full 60 minute games together in a weekend, they haven't done that really since AFA/BC.

[GopherFan89]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

How about the fact that the Gophers are one of only two WCHA that haven't been swept this year? The only other team that can say that is UND and they only avoided a sweep by getting a tie not a split. I wonder if there's any correlation to success in that.

[Biddco]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

How about the fact that the Gophers are one of only two WCHA that haven't been swept this year? The only other team that can say that is UND and they only avoided a sweep by getting a tie not a split. I wonder if there's any correlation to success in that.

Even we have swept twice.

[Driftryder]

Re: Minnesota Gophers 2012-2013 Part II: Mmmm, Iron City Beer!

Even we have swept twice.

So have we, well if you include NC games as well.