Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

[Carmine Scarpaglia]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Alas, I doubt Jerry has any any idea about the mathematics involved.

Craig Janney agrees.

[J.D.]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

I seem to remember york knowing all about the PWR (minus the real nitty gritty number crunching)

Tom caron is another twit who I think still thinks we're under the 12 team format.

[amherstblackbear]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Tom caron is another twit who I think still thinks we're under the 12 team format.

If only he were right about that. :\

But that's another thread entirely. Carry on . . .

[sterlippo1]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

with a week-long trip to San Francisco starting next Friday.

you have no idea how jealous i am. My favorite place on earth.......................................anyway , i had a gun in my mouth on the long ride home saturday but my wife reminded my that i do this every year at this time. We have to be patient and see what Jerry comes up with and he will come up with something. Need Matheson and Doherty obviously but there just isnt anyone on the 3rd or 4th line that i can see with any special talent . No one does anything particularly well that you could say , "geez, that kid is really playing well out there and is going to break out soon". No one has stepped up or even shown a glimmer of hope that one will, that's what i'm most concerned about. Right now, if all 11 recruits come next year they all are going to play, right away...........I'm that unimpressed with everyone on the current third and fourth lines................

edit, meant Sullivan, not Doherty..........mixed up the Irish names, lol

[claver2010]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Matheson should be back this weekend so that will help both the struggling powerplay (1 for last 21 with the 1 being the garbage goal this weekend) and allowing another F to actually play F.

Agreed on the 3rd & 4th line, coming into Saturday night combined they've averaged 1.1 PPG. That's comically bad. There are players who do things well (Smith is physical and is a very good on the PK) that any winning team needs, but there are far too many who aren't producing who in past years would've been in suits.

This team isn't nearly as bad as they've played the last couple of weeks.

[sterlippo1]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

This team isn't nearly as bad as they've played the last couple of weeks.

or as good as it was in the first 11. Obviously somewhere in between. I'd like to think closer to the 10-1 team . We can never count a Jerry York team out but it will be interesting (read more difficult), to see what he does with this group

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

The reality is that this team is probably better than this current 1-3 stretch when healthy but still not as good as that 10-game win streak either. BUT... for BC's standards... this squad ranks fairly low on the totem pole.

I haven't seen a BC team bend over and take it in the rear like this in a long time. 01-02 struggled and had Dolinar playing D for a while with similar injuries on D. But that team tried every night. And when Ben Eaves was healthy they were still a brutally tough team to play against.

Get the powerplay going and you're probably putting this team in a lot of tight games and that will be a good thing. They won a lot of tight games in that 10 game win streak.

First goals are of course very important for them. Especially right now. BC was never in control of 120 minutes of hockey this weekend because they stunk and gave up the first period goals in each game. That's a crazy huge pill to swallow but it's true.

Anyone that realized BC won 29 out of their last 30 games at one point had to realize the law of averages was going to smack BC with a large dose of mathematical reality.

My concern is that the "this happens every year" crowd will get jacked up by a potential Beanpot, which could be fool's gold given the nature of Harvard (losing many players to academic scandal) and Northeastern (too many things to mention) and BU (the best of the bunch but also a bit schizo right now). Still I like BU's chances given the recent rash of suspensions coming at the right time to round them into shape, but we can never discount anyone getting arrested either. All that being said, everything is fairly wide open. FF run is possible given the down years for a lot of programs. Anything can happen. Best goalie the country IMO. Best coach in the game (fact). That's a decent recipe for success.

[unhpuckfan2001]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

I don't know the timeline of the rash of injuries to the many BC defensemen, but I think at least one of them was recent.

To me, the first games after a major injury aren't as telling as the second weekend; as in, what adjustments do you make on Monday morning (or whenever they practice) and have a week in which to practice them and get comfortable.

Jerry York is too smart a coach, and as a team the Eagles are still too talented; they may glide into the playoffs as a #2 or 3 in Hockey East instead of running away with #1, but I am sure Mr York will find a way to keep them competitive until they get their key players back.

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Some more numbers to chew on.

The lack of quickness and transition (and SHGs, which could have been scored this weekend a few times but whatever) is evident. Quickness and offensive zone presence and possession usually lead to the defending team to tire and take penalties. This year's team on a per game basis is the worst in the last 14 years (as far back as I felt like going) at generating powerplay opportunities. And yes this isn't perfectly scientific.

Powerplays per game:

2004-2005 6.40
2005-2006 5.83
2008-2009 5.81
2000-2001 5.72
2002-2003 5.69
2003-2004 5.19
1999-2000 5.17
2006-2007 5.14
2007-2008 5.05
2009-2010 5.05
2010-2011 4.82
2011-2012 4.27
2001-2002 4.26
2012-2013 4.04

Of course last year's team was near the bottom of this but steamrolled everyone. At 21.5%, it's still a nice number in spite of the slump. Partly because it was otherworldly early on. Obviously not scoring on the PP is a death blow for this team right now but if they can get another 1 to 1.5 PPs per game it could have a huge effect on the way things go.

Just something that I found interesting, really.

[J.D.]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Given the recent play, just find a way to win by any means necessary. I'll then worry about how they are actually playing at a later date.

No surprise that this team doesn't draw as many penalties...good research. I wonder where they stand in terms of the number of penalties they take.

[Chris_NH]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Some more numbers to chew on.

The lack of quickness and transition (and SHGs, which could have been scored this weekend a few times but whatever) is evident. Quickness and offensive zone presence and possession usually lead to the defending team to tire and take penalties. This year's team on a per game basis is the worst in the last 14 years (as far back as I felt like going) at generating powerplay opportunities. And yes this isn't perfectly scientific.

Powerplays per game:

2004-2005 6.40
2005-2006 5.83
2008-2009 5.81
2000-2001 5.72
2002-2003 5.69
2003-2004 5.19
1999-2000 5.17
2006-2007 5.14
2007-2008 5.05
2009-2010 5.05
2010-2011 4.82
2011-2012 4.27
2001-2002 4.26
2012-2013 4.04

Of course last year's team was near the bottom of this but steamrolled everyone. At 21.5%, it's still a nice number in spite of the slump. Partly because it was otherworldly early on. Obviously not scoring on the PP is a death blow for this team right now but if they can get another 1 to 1.5 PPs per game it could have a huge effect on the way things go.

Just something that I found interesting, really.

Saturday night there couldn't have been more than a couple odd-man rushes that BC attempted, and those were quickly neutralized/vaporized by Maine's good defense. But the transition game has always (or, recently) been a BC hallmark. The more odd-man rushes you get, the more goals you get.

[claver2010]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Just by my gut I don't think we take as many penalties either. Steve has really improved in that.

Matheson is practicing today with the non-contact jersey on as a precaution -plan is he should be good to go this weekend.

[sterlippo1]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Powerplays per game:

2004-2005 6.40
2005-2006 5.83
2008-2009 5.81
2000-2001 5.72
2002-2003 5.69
2003-2004 5.19
1999-2000 5.17
2006-2007 5.14
2007-2008 5.05
2009-2010 5.05
2010-2011 4.82
2011-2012 4.27
2001-2002 4.26
2012-2013 4.04

Just something that I found interesting, really.

It is interesting ............. based on the trend showing there, PPG have gone down every year without exception (ok, one year it was the same), that perhaps it is a trend in college hockey that less penalties are called rather than a BC trend?? Maybe that's crazy to say that but those numbers are startling

[Agganis]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

Powerplays per game:

2004-2005 6.40
2005-2006 5.83
2008-2009 5.81
2000-2001 5.72
2002-2003 5.69
2003-2004 5.19
1999-2000 5.17
2006-2007 5.14
2007-2008 5.05
2009-2010 5.05
2010-2011 4.82
2011-2012 4.27
2001-2002 4.26
2012-2013 4.04

The fact that BC's PPPG has gone down every single year for 14 straight years (besides the one year when it stayed level) makes me think how the game has been called has likely changed, and this may not have much to do with speed or possession. PPPG vs the NCAA avg for that year would likely better show those attributes, but I assume you have better things to do than calculate that.

Edit: Damm you sterlippo!

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Boston College Hockey, '12-'13, Volume II: #JohnnyHockey or #GaudreaubeyBaker?

They are sorted by PPs per game guys, not by year.