Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

It's even rarer than Alaska making the tournament, I'm seeing it in 4 possible outcomes. This one requires a very particular tie in the 3rd place game to knock Brown out of being a TUC, while still keeping Yale ahead of UNH: http://goo.gl/Y0QFl

Fascinating that in that scenario, Union, Yale, and UNH all have RPI = .5340 and UNH comes out on the bottom in the 5th decimal point. Are the other 3 like it in that way?

[Fishhawk]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.

Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
Minnesota #2 100% invite
Miami #3-8 100% invite
Boston College #3-12 100% invite
Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
Denver #7-15 98% invite
Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
Union #8-22 41.5% invite
Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
Cornell #18-27 No invites
Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite

Anyone see anything outside those ranges?

Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?

[alnike]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is it accurate that all conference tournaments have no consolation games for 2012-13?

[Patman]

Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?

I'd wager "no"... If Jim was able to save all his runs then he should have answer... I'll start working out simple UML contingencies later

Edit: BC can be a 1 w/o winning HEA for certain... I suppose that leads to the question if both BC and UML can be a one seed

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?

I seem to be getting a possibility of Yale (if they beat QU) and NoDak (3 wins makes a difference here. It works with them beating Minny and Mankato anyway) jumping over Lowell in the event all 3 win their conference. Miami stays ahead, too, with a win in the CCHA final. So, Lowell would be 6th only in this case.

So, no is the answer to your question. I am now going to think about the possible question? Who has priority to the 4th overall seed? In other words, who gets auto by winning their tourney? I suspect it may not be possible to phrase it that way, because for Yale, beating Brown is a lot different than beating QU.

Quick Edit: BC has priority. Win HE, and they are a #1. Then, North Dakota. Then, Yale. Lowell is behind them all because they have a lost compare with SCSU which can't be flipped.

[Steve_MN]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is it accurate that all conference tournaments have no consolation games for 2012-13?

No. ECAC still has the Saturday 3rd place game. The other 4 conferences do not.

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is it accurate that all conference tournaments have no consolation games for 2012-13?

ECAC has a 3rd place game at 4:00 on Saturday (right before the Championship Game).

[QUAlum2004]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?

Not definite yet because if Brown wins the ECAC title then they are definitely the #4 seed in Providence as the host school and will kick Quinnipiac to Manchester as a #1 seed. Lowell or BC would then go to Providence.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Not definite yet because if Brown wins the ECAC title then they are definitely the #4 seed in Providence as the host school and will kick Quinnipiac to Manchester as a #1 seed. Lowell or BC would then go to Providence.

This is correct. It gets really hairy for the committee if the very strange occurence happens, and Brown and UNH both host as #4s. Then, QU can't go to Prov, and UNH is the highest #4, so QU likely would not be there, playing what amounts to a road game.

In regard to #1 seed priority, see post 725, where it is found that even if Brown loses, and UNH is not a #4, it doesn't matter for Lowell. If NoDak or Yale win out, Lowell can't pass them because of the St Cloud compare. If BC wins out, they have the priority to the last #1 seed.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Robert Morris, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst

[unh1982]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst

curious , without winning hockey east how does pc or bu get in.... would be nice to see one more HE school make it ..

[unh1982]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst

could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.

JimDahl shows BU with 0.8% chance at At-large, Pv 0.1% chance. Those things are hard to find.

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.

I have seen scenarios where BU gets in by defeating BC on Friday and still losing on Saturday. I have not seen the same for Providence yet but I am still looking. CHN has a scenario where all 5 Hockey East teams get into the tournament.

[Patman]

could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.

Technically they don't but the chance is exceedingly small.