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  • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

    Originally posted by MagnessMan View Post
    Just realized if CC wins tomorrow they would most likely be the 6th seed and face UND (assuming they beat Tech). Leaving Bucky to face either UNO or MSU. With a win, Bucky would then face the Gophs in the Friday Semi. Knocking them off would land them in the tourney.
    I believe the 4/5 winner plays St Cloud regardless of the result of the other game. The way UW plays Minn in the semi is if ND loses tomorrow. Then UW is 3rd seed, and plays Minny with a win.

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    • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

      It all makes my brain hurt. We'll know in less than 24 hours. My daughter and I are combining a college tour with F5 (her idea ) instead of our annual trip to the FF. Should be fun to be at the last WCHA F5 with all the big guns. Hoping DU can extinguish the p-u-s-s-y cats and punch their ticket.
      Go Pioneers!

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      • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

        Originally posted by Numbers View Post
        After Sat, Mar 16 – PWR courtesy of CHN, as I am writing this in Word, offline, because uscho.com is currently inaccessible:

        #1s: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
        #2s: Yale, Lowell, UNH, NoDak
        #3s: NoDame, Denver, SCSU, Mankato
        #4s: Niagara, WMU, Union, RPI

        Prov: QU (1), NoDak (8), NoDame (9), Can’t face RPI, Union, so I put WMU (14)

        Rapids: Minny (2), Lowell (6 – UNH goes to Manchester), Denver (10), RPI (16)

        Toledo: Miami (3), Yale (5), SCSU (11), Niagara (13 attendance)

        Manchester: BC (4), UNH (7 - host), Mankato (12), Union (15)

        The 3 WCHA teams who are #3 seeds are arbitrary. Put them wherever you want. It makes no difference, and they all have the same # of comparison wins, too.

        One could swap the NoDak/NoDame game for the Lowell/Denver game. It would not seem right to put Yale at Providence, as they are the highest #2 seed.

        Other things to note:
        9 games Sunday night. Both AHA teams need to win. In CCHA, FSU, OSU, MSU all are playing for the continuation of their seasons. In ECAC, Cornell, Brown, and I believe RPI all must win, although RPI might have hope without a win if other things break well next weekend. In HE, Providence must win, UNH is likely safe, but could fall as far as to a #4 seed if they lose. In WCHA, Omaha, CC and Tech are playing for their lives. Mankato could also fall to a 4 with a loss, as could Denver, and NoDak is safe and likely no lower than a 3.

        TUC Cliff:
        I am not sure, but I think that since no one close to the Cliff can now lose twice, that the present cutoff is the final cutoff. That is, barring Mercyhurst, Canisius, MTU or MSU going all the way to win their conference, and thus crossing the line upwards.
        If I am correct, it will become a little easier to forsee the possibilities now, because there will be no TUC surprises.
        Michigan looked very strong in sweeping Western Michigan and some are speculating they will win the CCHA championship in Detroit next weekend. If that happens do they go in as #16 and just replace the current #16 seed?

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        • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

          Originally posted by MeridianStreet View Post
          Michigan looked very strong in sweeping Western Michigan and some are speculating they will win the CCHA championship in Detroit next weekend. If that happens do they go in as #16 and just replace the current #16 seed?
          Their RPI is now above .5000, so you see them on the PWR lists. If they win in Detroit, automatic bid to the field. Overall seed depends on where among the 16 teams they end up. Right now, for example, Mich Tech still has a chance to win the WCHA. If that happened, they would be below Michigan, so Mich would be 15, and Tech 16.

          In these cases, yes, it is the last teams, the 15 and 16 in the PWR who lose their place. The rule is:
          1) Conf champs all qualify
          2) Then, at-large from the PWR list to make a field of 16
          3) Then, seed by PWR among those 16 teams
          4) Then, committee puts together the brackets
          Last edited by Numbers; 03-17-2013, 08:02 AM.

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          • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

            CONFESSION::

            I was wrong about the current TUC line. It turns out that both Connecticut and Ohio State are still subject to falling back off the cliff. And, in fact, any team with crucial TUC games against OSU could be sweating bullets all the way to Saturday afternoon, because if they lose tonight, their RPI goes to .4999. Likewise, for Connecticut, in the AH playoffs, if it goes something like: HC beats Mercyhurst today, HC and Niagara win the semis (Ct losing), then Connecticut's TUC status will depend on whether Holy Cross or Niagara win the final. Also, Mercyhurst winning out makes them a TUC.

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            • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

              So, Western Michigan, which less than a month ago looked like a #2 seed is now facing the possibility of missing the NCAA tournament. They are now #14 so I am assuming that depending on the games between today and next Sunday, even though they are not playing - they could still drop a notch or two putting them at risk?

              No team in the CCHA wanted to play Michigan in the 1st or 2nd round. Miami and Notre dame dodged that bullet. WMU did not.

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              • Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                CONFESSION::

                I was wrong about the current TUC line. It turns out that both Connecticut and Ohio State are still subject to falling back off the cliff. And, in fact, any team with crucial TUC games against OSU could be sweating bullets all the way to Saturday afternoon, because if they lose tonight, their RPI goes to .4999. Likewise, for Connecticut, in the AH playoffs, if it goes something like: HC beats Mercyhurst today, HC and Niagara win the semis (Ct losing), then Connecticut's TUC status will depend on whether Holy Cross or Niagara win the final. Also, Mercyhurst winning out makes them a TUC.
                Mistakes are common when you're dealing with so many moving targets, which is why I so often say "I think" :-)

                I won't get home until about 930 tonight and the YATC sites will come on by midnight so the guesswork will be removed - except for that pesky part about picking games. Depending on how exhausted I am I'll start running scenarios tonight or tomorrow morning. I expect I'll be able to update the list of teams that have clinched a spot by then, if Numbers hasn't already done so.

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                • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                  Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                  I won't get home until about 930 tonight and the YATC sites will come on by midnight so the guesswork will be removed - except for that pesky part about picking games. Depending on how exhausted I am I'll start running scenarios tonight or tomorrow morning. I expect I'll be able to update the list of teams that have clinched a spot by then, if Numbers hasn't already done so.
                  As always, I'll also post the full table of all remaining possibilities tomorrow morning; I don't think I'll do it tonight with a game at 7MT. Plus, by morning you guys will have covered enough of the range with the YATC calculators to give me some confidence in the results

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                  • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology

                    Any scenario that Alaska Fairbanks moves up from current #17 ranking..

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                    • Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                      As always, I'll also post the full table of all remaining possibilities tomorrow morning; I don't think I'll do it tonight with a game at 7MT. Plus, by morning you guys will have covered enough of the range with the YATC calculators to give me some confidence in the results
                      Love to hear it!

                      As for Alaska, I was just wondering about that. I can't do much on my tablet in the way of running scenarios but just eyeballing their comparisons they can move up if things break right. The key is keeping Michigan as a TUC, and hoping other bubble teams lose. I can get them to 17 comparisons won which would put them 15th.

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                      • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                        thanks!!! for the info...

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                        • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                          Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                          As always, I'll also post the full table of all remaining possibilities tomorrow morning; I don't think I'll do it tonight with a game at 7MT. Plus, by morning you guys will have covered enough of the range with the YATC calculators to give me some confidence in the results
                          Do you mean a full table of all combinations for our perusal, or a (win2, win1, win0 or win3) like you normally do with a few teams, except this time for everybody?

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                          • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                            Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                            Love to hear it!

                            As for Alaska, I was just wondering about that. I can't do much on my tablet in the way of running scenarios but just eyeballing their comparisons they can move up if things break right. The key is keeping Michigan as a TUC, and hoping other bubble teams lose. I can get them to 17 comparisons won which would put them 15th.
                            PL,
                            Would you mind telling me which 3 comparisons you can flip? Just looking at the current grid, I am only seeing the possibility of Brown is Brown loses today, and Saint Lawrence by a strange change in RPI of .0003 cumulatively for each team.
                            No time to look for me for awhile. I have a busy afternoon with work.


                            Also, Priceless, As you know, you don't need the YATC calculators. I think it's quicker to use DIY by Whelan, because you can change the results more quickly. The only caveat in that is that you have to remember that his DIY breaks ties by individual comparisons, rather than by RPI.
                            Last edited by Numbers; 03-17-2013, 01:53 PM.

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                            • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                              Originally posted by Numbers View Post
                              Do you mean a full table of all combinations for our perusal, or a (win2, win1, win0 or win3) like you normally do with a few teams, except this time for everybody?
                              Well, at a minimum I can certainly give you the type of stuff I've done in past years, e.g. Outlook as of Friday Mar.16, 2012. Of course, I'm always making changes and am open to suggestion. By full table of combinations, you mean all 1,000,000 possible outcomes in a giant table, or something else?

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                              • Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

                                Originally posted by JimDahl View Post
                                Well, at a minimum I can certainly give you the type of stuff I've done in past years, e.g. Outlook as of Friday Mar.16, 2012. Of course, I'm always making changes and am open to suggestion. By full table of combinations, you mean all 1,000,000 possible outcomes in a giant table, or something else?


                                Sure, all 1 million outcomes The last time I did the pairwise it took about 4 seconds on average to augment and compute. This time I did it correctly and more efficiently... thought I haven't done a timing yet (laptop is also much faster than before). I don't know what you're getting Jim, but the way I see it there's no hope in doing that many outcomes without the ability to compute in parallel. I can't do it, as I don't have a server and loads of processors to abuse.

                                Edit: I've started a timing run but I'm headed out to kickball and I'd really like to restart the lappy as there is a fair amount of lag
                                Last edited by Patman; 03-17-2013, 02:10 PM.
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