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Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

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  • Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

    Sorry for the delay in starting these, but I have been out of internet range for the last two+ weeks (long bicycling trip). However, my D3 rankings are up and running now, and here are the results for the week ending November 4, 2012

    Code:
      	Team 	Rating 	
    1 	Norwich 	2.2935 	
    2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2125 
    3 	Elmira 	        2.1690 
    4 	Wis-River F. 	1.8212 	
    5 	Middlebury 	1.7824 
    6 	Gustavus Adol.	1.7697 	
    7 	Amherst 	1.7383 	
    8 	Holy Cross 	0.9799 	
    9 	Saint Anselm 	0.8247 	
    10 	Salve Regina 	0.7869
    The list of all the teams can be found here: http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/D3_Rankings.html

    For a detailed, mathematical explination of the model, there are slides of a talk I gave at the web page. There is also an article I had published in Chance magazine that contains good information, if you would be interested in that.

    Q: Why is Norwich number 1 when they they have two ties?
    A: They tied Plattsburgh and Elmira, so that just brings those teams closer together in rating. They are not number 1 by much, but this early in the season, last season's rating still has a lot of influence. At the end of last season, Norwich was rated higher than Platsburgh and Elmira, so until one of those teams loses or beats another highly rated team, that will likely stay the ranking.

    Q: Why are Saint Michael's, Holy Cross, and Saint Anselm in the rankings? They are not D3 teams.
    A: But they play a D3 schedules. So while they will never make the NCAA D3 tourney, I think it is important to see how results against those teams effect the rankings. If this really troubles you, I can send you the code and you can run the ratings without those teams.

    Q: There is no way team X should be ranked so high/low. Don't you follow D3 hockey?
    A: No, not very much. With all the new teams in D3 this year, it is possible that I am assigning wins and losses to the wrong teams. If you think I may be making a mistake, please let me know.

  • #2
    Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

    For games played through November 11, 2012

    Code:
      	Team 	Rating 	
    1 	Norwich 	2.3662 
    2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2805 	
    3 	Elmira 	        2.2788 
    4 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.1245 	
    5 	Middlebury 	1.7801 	
    6 	Amherst 	1.7466 	
    7 	Wis-River F. 	1.2935 	
    8 	St. Thomas 	0.9185 	
    9 	Holy Cross 	0.8739 	
    10 	Saint Anselm 	0.8376

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

      LakersFan...just wanted to say thank you for the Computer Rankings, it's greatly appreciated and I imagine it takes some time and energy to put this together. Thanks again!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

        For games played through November 18, 2012

        Code:
        	Team		Rating
        1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.3902 	
        2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2930 	
        3 	Elmira 	        2.2892 	
        4 	Norwich 	1.9971 	
        5 	Middlebury 	1.9492 	
        6 	Saint Anselm 	1.4107 
        7 	Manhattanville 	1.3319 
        8 	Amherst 	1.1366 
        9 	Holy Cross 	0.8920 	
        10 	Wis-River F. 	0.8593
        Congrats to GA for being the new number 1.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

          Originally posted by LakersFan View Post
          For games played through November 18, 2012

          Code:
          	Team		Rating
          1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.3902 	
          2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2930 	
          3 	Elmira 	        2.2892 	
          4 	Norwich 	1.9971 	
          5 	Middlebury 	1.9492 	
          6 	Saint Anselm 	1.4107 
          7 	Manhattanville 	1.3319 
          8 	Amherst 	1.1366 
          9 	Holy Cross 	0.8920 	
          10 	Wis-River F. 	0.8593
          Congrats to GA for being the new number 1.
          Out of curiosity what's that significance of the 2.39 vs 2.29 are they essentially equal when its only a .1 difference? Obviously the 2.29 vs 2.28 of Platt/elmira is essentialy equal...but is .1 a big difference or is it small?
          Last edited by gojackets; 11-19-2012, 04:16 PM. Reason: spelling
          UWS Ladyjackets

          NCHA League Champions: 2001, 2004, 2007, 2008
          NCHA Tournament Champs: 2008
          Frozen Four Participants: 2008

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

            Son of a Gunder, Ander and Paul -- the Swedes are supreme!
            Illegitimum non carborundum
            Cartman: Ma'am, the Crack Baby Athletic Association is a storied institution that was founded over twelve days ago.
            Cartman:Should I admit I was wrong, ask for everyone's forgiveness and go back to my original team? Nah, screw that, I'm just gonna keep being a d**k.
            Cartman: Screw you sir, I'm going home.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

              Originally posted by gojackets View Post
              Out of curiosity what's that significance of the 2.39 vs 2.29 are they essentially equal when its only a .1 difference? Obviously the 2.29 vs 2.28 of Platt/elmira is essentialy equal...but is .1 a big difference or is it small?
              From a probability standpoint, a team with a rating of .1 higher than its opponent would win 54% of the time (threfore losing 46% of the time). This assumes a tie is not possible, like in a playoff game. I would say that is not much of a difference.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                For games played through November 25, 2012

                Code:
                  	Team 	Rating 	
                1 	Plattsburgh 	2.6616 
                2 	Gustavus Ad. 	2.3928 	
                3 	Middlebury 	2.2466 
                4 	Elmira 	        2.0869 
                5 	Norwich 	1.9982 	
                6 	Saint Anselm 	1.3652 	
                7 	Manhattanville 	1.3095 	
                8 	Trinity 	1.0356 	
                9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9601 	
                10 	Amherst 	0.8294

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                  For games played through December 2, 2012

                  Code:
                    	Team 	Rating 	
                  1 	Plattsburgh 	2.6727 
                  2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.4405 	
                  3 	Elmira 	        2.1094 	
                  4 	Middlebury 	2.0564 	
                  5 	Norwich 	2.0305 	
                  6 	Manhattanville 	1.2877 	
                  7 	Trinity 	1.1931 
                  8 	Bowdoin 	1.1826 
                  9 	Saint Anselm 	1.1393 	
                  10 	Amherst 	1.0608

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                    For games played through December 9, 2012

                    Code:
                      	Team 		Rating 	
                    1 	Plattsburgh 	2.7198 	
                    2 	Gustavus Adol.	2.5060 
                    3 	Elmira 		2.0371 
                    4 	Middlebury 	1.9999 	
                    5 	Norwich 	1.9355 	
                    6 	Bowdoin 	1.6108 	
                    7 	Manhattanville 	1.1952 	
                    8 	Amherst 	1.0070 	
                    9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9277 	
                    10 	Saint Anselm 	0.9022

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                      For game played through December 16, 2012

                      Code:
                        	Team 		Rating 	
                      1 	Plattsburgh 	2.7235 	
                      2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6675 
                      3 	Elmira 		2.0382 	
                      4 	Middlebury 	2.0017 	
                      5 	Norwich 	1.9404 
                      6 	Bowdoin 	1.6164 	
                      7 	Manhattanville 	1.1953 	
                      8 	Amherst 	1.0072 	
                      9 	Saint Anselm 	0.9062 	
                      10 	Hamilton 	0.8816

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                        For games played through January 6, 2013

                        Code:
                          	Team 		Rating 	
                        1 	Plattsburgh 	2.8281 	
                        2 	Gustavus Adolp. 2.6670 	
                        3 	Elmira 		2.2184 	
                        4 	Middlebury 	1.9905 	
                        5 	Norwich 	1.9174 
                        6 	Bowdoin 	1.8235 	
                        7 	Amherst 	1.2015 	
                        8 	Hamilton 	0.8815 	
                        9 	Wis-River Falls 0.8705
                        10 	Saint Anselm 	0.8704

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                          For games played through January 13, 2013

                          Code:
                            	Team 	Rating 
                          1 	Plattsburgh 	2.8472 	
                          2 	Gustavus Adolp. 2.6106 	
                          3 	Elmira 	        2.1957 	
                          4 	Norwich 	1.9335 	
                          5 	Bowdoin 	1.9085 
                          6 	Middlebury 	1.8777 	
                          7 	Amherst 	1.2086 	
                          8 	Hamilton 	1.0369 
                          9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9398 	
                          10 	Adrian 	        0.9389

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                            For games played through January 2, 2013

                            Code:
                              	Team 		Rating 	
                            1 	Plattsburgh 	2.9988 
                            2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6577 	
                            3 	Elmira 		2.0956
                            4 	Norwich 	2.0494 	
                            5 	Bowdoin 	1.9313 
                            6 	Middlebury 	1.9021 	
                            7 	Amherst 	1.1300 	
                            8 	Wis-River Falls 1.0042 	
                            9 	Manhattanville 	0.8691 	
                            10 	Hamilton 	0.8142

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

                              For games played through January 27, 2013

                              Code:
                                	Team 	Rating 	
                              1 	Plattsburgh 	3.0432 	
                              2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.7131 	
                              3 	Norwich 	2.0161 
                              4 	Elmira 		2.0093 
                              5 	Middlebury 	1.9634 	
                              6 	Bowdoin 	1.7480 	
                              7 	Amherst 	1.0408 	
                              8 	Wis-River Falls 0.9927 	
                              9 	Hamilton 	0.7940 	
                              10 	Manhattanville 	0.7298

                              Comment

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